Fuzzy-Margin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.28K

Unrealized P&L

+$52

Hit rate

63.1%

Resolved

2,171

Trades

5,374

lifetime

Volume

$48.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$559

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 10-13 19:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 116 days

Categories

Other

80% 25% -$976

Politics

12% 34% +$3

Tech

3% 30% -$89

Crypto

2% 51% -$177

Sports

2% 18% -$25

Pop-Culture

0% 18% -$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+281	$250	100¢	$280	+$30	09-04 10:54
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+267	$200	82¢	$220	+$20	09-04 10:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+66	$57	88¢	$59	+$2	10-13 19:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 65 89	11	$1.1K	856	790	+67	No	+$28	02-04 11:42
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 115 139	10	$1.1K	592	592	+0	No	+$41	02-04 16:39
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 26?	28	$816	406	431	-25	No	+$5	04-26 07:10
lowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 13c	31	$810	416	416	+0	Yes	+$2	04-23 14:51
iran successfully targets shipping on july 2 20260625225210243	8	$753	400	400	+0	No	-$12	06-28 08:03
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	20	$704	343	395	-53	No	-$2	04-22 13:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?	12	$682	351	351	+0	No	+$1	04-24 16:05
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 18m?	16	$588	303	303	+0	No	-$1	05-10 20:38
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	13	$552	291	291	+0	Down	-$9	05-11 13:28
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	8	$403	210	210	+0	Yes	-$3	04-27 13:20
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	8	$401	204	204	+0	No	+$1	04-28 15:16
wti up or down on june 15 2026	2	$393	200	200	+0	Down	+$5	06-15 19:19
marc pubill 20260609173616755	5	$391	200	200	+0	No	+$1	06-15 14:26
will the announcers say corner 15 times during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716808	3	$390	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-28 01:41
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$386	210	210	+0	No	+$8	01-31 06:42
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	8	$385	202	202	+0	No	-$1	05-07 20:20
spx opens up or down on april 22 2026	13	$380	196	196	+0	Up	+$0	04-22 13:05
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	17	$378	201	201	+0	Up	-$16	05-11 19:05
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 19	7	$371	200	187	+13	No	+$1	06-18 17:26
elon musk of tweets february 5 february 7 65 89	2	$361	270	270	+0	No	-$28	02-05 15:27
open up or down on april 23 2026	6	$356	182	181	+0	Down	$0	04-23 19:22
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 25?	8	$340	172	172	+0	Yes	+$0	04-25 10:26
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 26?	8	$331	167	167	+0	Yes	+$1	04-26 08:06
lowest temperature in paris on april 23 2026 5c	23	$319	161	161	+0	No	+$0	04-23 08:01
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 28?	9	$317	165	165	+0	No	+$0	04-28 13:35
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	8	$314	162	162	+0	No	+$1	04-28 08:22
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 46 million views on day 2?	19	$313	160	160	+0	No	$0	05-18 08:33
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 65 89	2	$302	162	162	+0	Yes	+$6	02-02 15:50
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	11	$299	152	152	+0	Down	+$0	04-28 19:21
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?	8	$296	153	153	+0	No	$0	05-17 14:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 19:05:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	66	86¢	$57	0xff4b7e…
10-13 19:03:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	SELL	54	99¢	$54	0xc8e248…
09-24 09:07:39	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	0¢	$0	0x33cacc…
09-24 09:07:32	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	25	11¢	$3	0xf9fba4…
09-14 12:59:00	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0x91d65d…
09-04 11:07:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x873706…
09-04 10:57:30	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0x376b6c…
09-04 10:55:06	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	267	75¢	$200	0xc1fe1e…
09-04 10:54:39	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	281	89¢	$250	0x94f17d…
07-22 03:16:36	chicago air quality index below 100 by july 21 2026 20260717130414632	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xeeb327…
07-20 12:14:27	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0x19b221…
07-20 12:13:24	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0xcc72de…
07-20 12:13:24	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xc42b7c…
07-20 12:13:24	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0xbeb4c5…
07-20 12:13:24	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xaf9ec0…
07-20 12:13:24	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x9923c4…
07-20 12:13:24	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0x842197…
07-20 12:13:24	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0x027505…
07-20 12:10:45	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0xb79bd2…
07-20 12:07:34	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	14	19¢	$3	0x0d7cef…
07-20 12:05:49	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	49	2¢	$1	0x2e2a38…
07-20 12:02:24	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on July 20?	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x8d5af4…
07-20 12:02:24	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x34df6b…
07-20 11:59:37	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xda6ad1…
07-20 10:59:31	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xbba05a…
07-20 09:58:48	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xda7448…
07-20 09:54:21	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4db47d…
07-20 08:04:30	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd8653e…
07-20 07:03:13	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8732af…
07-20 07:03:12	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x322dc1…
07-20 06:05:25	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7e5115…
07-20 05:35:01	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x39e35c…
07-20 05:33:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe1d5ad…
07-20 05:33:13	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x33a2d0…
07-20 04:05:40	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xf3331a…
07-20 04:05:40	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5a4600…
07-20 04:01:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x390d49…
07-20 03:55:34	will anyone say space during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117498	No	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0x0ae5dc…
07-20 03:43:48	will anyone say space during rick and morty e9 s9 20260714143117498	No	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xffb5ef…
07-20 03:37:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x782adb…
07-20 03:34:06	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x9ef65d…
07-20 03:34:06	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x05c669…
07-20 03:27:28	Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x2a716d…
07-20 02:02:01	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x310dba…
07-20 01:03:36	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1c9bb0…
07-19 23:57:55	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x35eb33…
07-19 23:20:34	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6db5e9…
07-19 23:15:33	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xa7c154…
07-19 23:15:22	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xee1ea8…
07-19 23:15:22	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x9989c1…
07-19 23:15:22	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x97235f…
07-19 23:15:21	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xf24e8f…
07-19 23:15:21	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x9d8533…
07-19 23:15:21	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x31f8cd…
07-19 23:15:21	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x09182b…
07-19 23:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xd34ab8…
07-19 22:33:43	Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x5f6c4b…
07-19 22:26:45	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xdce338…
07-19 22:00:28	will the announcers say shutout or shut out during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403315	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x994964…
07-19 21:04:43	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xb91f17…
07-19 20:13:24	Will J Balvin perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	42	95¢	$40	0x36feac…
07-19 19:26:12	will the announcers say shutout or shut out during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403315	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xc0d233…
07-19 19:05:04	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf5cd02…
07-19 19:04:52	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 19?	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0xe1983b…
07-19 19:03:10	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 19?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x2041f1…
07-19 19:02:51	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 19?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0xf993e0…
07-19 19:02:49	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 19?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x67cbeb…
07-19 19:01:12	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x203452…
07-19 17:35:16	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x10c44b…
07-19 14:54:46	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xdd774a…
07-19 14:35:31	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x10b34d…
07-19 13:55:33	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x53e9f4…
07-19 12:55:37	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xfc43aa…
07-19 10:54:13	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x328ef5…
07-19 10:13:12	chicago air quality index below 100 by july 21 2026 20260717130414632	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x350b60…
07-19 09:15:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 19?	Yes	SELL	54	2¢	$1	0xc95066…
07-19 09:15:13	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 19?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xc8e71d…
07-19 09:11:22	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 19?	Yes	SELL	46	2¢	$1	0xfc6594…
07-19 09:04:57	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2db0f5…
07-19 08:57:27	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xb00294…
07-19 08:02:37	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5b46c3…
07-19 07:05:34	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x20baca…
07-19 07:03:54	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7f251e…
07-19 07:03:03	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf76590…
07-19 05:06:21	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xf57e14…
07-19 04:05:10	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x5b214f…
07-19 04:05:09	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x423317…
07-19 03:35:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa38abe…
07-19 03:03:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xbe7655…
07-19 00:00:36	Will J Balvin perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0xe6ca25…
07-18 23:59:12	Will J Balvin perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$47	0x5cbbd4…
07-18 23:36:19	will the announcers say bench or benches 7 times during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740621	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x6ad160…
07-18 23:25:10	Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 18?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xf04109…
07-18 23:25:10	Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 18?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa798c0…
07-18 23:25:10	Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 18?	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xa6059f…
07-18 23:25:10	Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 18?	No	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xa234cb…
07-18 23:25:10	Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 18?	No	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x926215…
07-18 23:25:10	Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 18?	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x7eb827…
07-18 23:25:10	Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 18?	No	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x777090…
07-18 23:25:10	Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 18?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x3628e6…