Fuzzy-Margin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

55.7%

Resolved

Trades

2,320

lifetime

Volume

$29.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$39

1 position

First seen

2026-01-18

last 06-30 03:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

78% 83% $-14

Politics

13% 20% $-3

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 324 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	No		+42	$40	95¢	$39	$-0	06-30 03:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 65 89	11	$1.1K	856	790	+67	open	—	02-04 11:42
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 115 139	10	$1.1K	592	592	+0	open	—	02-04 16:39
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 26?	28	$816	406	431	-25	open	—	04-26 07:10
lowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 13c	31	$810	416	416	+0	open	—	04-23 14:51
iran successfully targets shipping on july 2 20260625225210243	8	$753	400	400	+0	open	—	06-28 08:03
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	20	$704	343	395	-53	open	—	04-22 13:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?	12	$682	351	351	+0	open	—	04-24 16:05
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	13	$552	291	291	+0	Down	$-9	05-11 13:28
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	8	$403	210	210	+0	open	—	04-27 13:20
will the announcers say corner 15 times during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716808	3	$390	200	200	+0	open	—	06-28 01:41
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$386	210	210	+0	open	—	01-31 06:42
spx opens up or down on april 22 2026	13	$380	196	196	+0	open	—	04-22 13:05
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	17	$378	201	201	+0	Up	$-16	05-11 19:05
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 19	7	$371	200	187	+13	open	—	06-18 17:26
elon musk of tweets february 5 february 7 65 89	2	$361	270	270	+0	open	—	02-05 15:27
open up or down on april 23 2026	6	$356	182	181	+0	open	—	04-23 19:22
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 25?	8	$340	172	172	+0	open	—	04-25 10:26
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 26?	8	$331	167	167	+0	open	—	04-26 08:06
lowest temperature in paris on april 23 2026 5c	23	$319	161	161	+0	open	—	04-23 08:01
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	8	$314	162	162	+0	open	—	04-28 08:22
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 65 89	2	$302	162	162	+0	open	—	02-02 15:50
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	11	$299	152	152	+0	open	—	04-28 19:21
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	2	$293	153	153	+0	open	—	02-02 15:29
highest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 18corhigher	21	$279	154	137	+17	open	—	04-22 20:04
highest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 14c	4	$269	137	137	+0	open	—	04-23 05:07
Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses?	7	$260	133	133	+0	open	—	04-26 05:40
lowest temperature in tokyo on april 24 2026 13c	4	$250	151	151	+0	open	—	04-24 10:46
msft up or down on april 20 2026	6	$243	150	149	+1	open	—	04-20 10:20
donald trump of truth social posts april 17 april 24 200plus	3	$238	120	120	+0	open	—	04-24 11:40
spx up or down on june 29 2026	6	$237	122	122	+0	open	—	06-29 16:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 03:58:29	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xca0ece…
06-30 01:15:25	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	48	96¢	$46	0x894587…
06-29 20:46:22	wti up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	120	1¢	$1	0xc7575e…
06-29 20:46:20	wti up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x01c862…
06-29 20:45:47	wti up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x03021e…
06-29 20:45:01	wti up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x5a5f3e…
06-29 20:44:23	wti up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x0a7c4f…
06-29 20:43:53	wti up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x06e746…
06-29 19:58:08	msft up or down on june 29 2026	Up	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x851bd0…
06-29 16:44:02	spx up or down on june 29 2026	Up	SELL	17	98¢	$16	0x8d17d5…
06-29 16:42:59	spx up or down on june 29 2026	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x71411e…
06-29 16:34:58	spx up or down on june 29 2026	Up	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x0b3113…
06-29 16:33:16	spx up or down on june 29 2026	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x98079c…
06-29 16:29:47	spx up or down on june 29 2026	Up	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x1fdca6…
06-29 16:22:13	spx up or down on june 29 2026	Up	BUY	122	96¢	$118	0x2914bb…
06-29 15:25:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x4473b1…
06-29 15:17:47	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x60f259…
06-29 04:20:05	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	SELL	26	98¢	$25	0xaafc25…
06-29 04:09:31	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x461e2d…
06-29 01:06:20	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x4ff195…
06-28 23:26:04	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	BUY	48	97¢	$46	0xa727a8…
06-28 14:25:13	will the announcers say golden boot during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716826	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x4f93c7…
06-28 08:03:14	iran successfully targets shipping on july 2 20260625225210243	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x179423…
06-28 04:07:56	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x6650ca…
06-28 03:59:32	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xb45acb…
06-28 02:03:17	Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x7ad531…
06-28 01:41:04	will the announcers say corner 15 times during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716808	Yes	SELL	195	98¢	$190	0x79696b…
06-28 01:38:28	will the announcers say corner 15 times during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716808	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x07aaa6…
06-28 01:33:50	will the announcers say corner 15 times during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716808	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0xb36dcf…
06-28 01:31:40	will the announcers say hydration break 5 times during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716810	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x0129e4…
06-28 01:31:26	will the announcers say hydration break 5 times during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716810	No	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x73d8e1…
06-28 01:31:26	will the announcers say hydration break 5 times during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716810	No	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x5860a6…
06-28 01:28:46	Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0xd3d954…
06-28 01:24:31	Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xb2e27f…
06-28 01:06:19	will the announcers say hydration break 5 times during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716810	No	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x092343…
06-27 21:51:56	iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	No	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0xe695f6…
06-27 21:51:13	iran successfully targets shipping by june 30 20260625215135369	No	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xc65774…
06-27 21:49:59	iran successfully targets shipping by june 27 20260625215135368	Yes	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0xd16fac…
06-27 21:49:19	iran successfully targets shipping by june 27 20260625215135368	Yes	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0x292fe5…
06-27 18:45:17	iran successfully targets shipping on july 2 20260625225210243	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xf1e618…
06-27 10:24:16	iran successfully targets shipping on july 2 20260625225210243	No	SELL	139	98¢	$137	0x8f6e89…
06-27 10:23:55	iran successfully targets shipping on july 2 20260625225210243	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xecf9b8…
06-27 10:23:29	iran successfully targets shipping on july 2 20260625225210243	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xdfa475…
06-27 10:23:14	iran successfully targets shipping on july 2 20260625225210243	No	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0x3c05f7…
06-27 10:22:53	iran successfully targets shipping on july 2 20260625225210243	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x3f93ef…
06-27 10:22:20	iran successfully targets shipping on july 2 20260625225210243	No	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0xb5c47e…
06-27 05:31:37	will the announcers say what a save during the uruguay vs spain fifa world cup match 20260625155523358	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xe481b6…
06-27 04:34:32	will belgium go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622451	No	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xff76d6…
06-27 04:31:20	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	43	0¢	$0	0xa0009a…
06-27 04:31:19	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0xe840df…
06-27 04:30:49	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x1db070…
06-27 01:56:25	will saudi arabia be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003057	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x805893…
06-26 22:23:23	will wti dip to 65 by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0xc0bcbc…
06-26 21:26:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xb86f29…
06-26 18:29:25	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x9ce9ed…
06-26 15:19:59	will wti dip to 65 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xfe6563…
06-26 05:20:35	will msft reach 420 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x0ce43e…
06-26 03:57:11	Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x9e5aad…
06-26 03:09:17	another gta vi trailer released by june 26	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xee79e7…
06-26 01:35:26	another gta vi trailer released by june 26	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xdec134…
06-26 01:00:04	Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xf0c1c7…
06-26 00:58:55	Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xd649d7…
06-26 00:58:35	Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x3cdbac…
06-25 22:00:46	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0xa0bfca…
06-25 20:56:22	wti closes above 72 on june 25 2026	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x7103e7…
06-25 19:59:53	spy closes above 730 on june 25 2026	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xc8160b…
06-25 02:55:14	Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	47	0¢	$0	0x73686e…
06-25 02:54:38	will donald trump publicly insult nicols maduro by june 30 2026	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xbb7267…
06-25 02:52:19	will donald trump publicly insult nicols maduro by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x26ffcd…
06-25 02:47:23	Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0xe5e6e7…
06-25 02:37:11	Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x3b6d3d…
06-25 02:34:38	Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xb9f621…
06-25 01:02:43	will the announcers say goal 40 times during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947255	No	SELL	130	1¢	$1	0xb4198b…
06-25 00:17:19	will brazil be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003063	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$0	0x727c9d…
06-24 23:42:50	will the announcers say crossbar during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947271	No	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x561d54…
06-24 23:39:23	will the announcers say goal 40 times during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947255	No	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x0e5c6e…
06-24 23:10:56	will the announcers say ronaldo during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947281	No	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0x984866…
06-24 22:21:28	will the announcers say ronaldo during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947281	No	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xc7fce6…
06-24 20:02:31	mu quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 24 2026 19pt66	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x7129f4…
06-24 19:43:29	spx up or down on june 24 2026	Up	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x68cd88…
06-24 19:42:22	spx up or down on june 24 2026	Up	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xc2a2dd…
06-24 17:27:11	will jos luis rodrguez zapatero be arrested by june 30	No	SELL	12	98¢	$11	0x3c264c…
06-24 13:55:59	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xec18e2…
06-24 13:55:59	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xe9e244…
06-24 13:55:59	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xd06457…
06-24 13:55:59	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xcee750…
06-24 13:55:59	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xc72372…
06-24 13:55:59	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xc51f69…
06-24 13:55:59	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x7184fb…
06-24 13:55:59	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x4cb476…
06-24 13:55:59	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x2a82ab…
06-24 13:55:59	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x05b2b6…
06-24 13:55:58	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xf362b9…
06-24 13:55:58	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xec161f…
06-24 13:55:58	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xe30657…
06-24 13:55:58	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xd87e56…
06-24 13:55:58	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xd3229b…
06-24 13:55:58	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xb9adaa…
06-24 13:55:58	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xa54a1c…
06-24 13:55:58	will dr congo go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622444	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa22058…