Calm-Abacus — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

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Unrealized P&L

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Hit rate

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Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

255 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$1.60K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

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0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 08-31 06:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Other

88% 62% +$6

Politics

7% 100% +$3

Tech

3% 100% +$1

Pop-Culture

2% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	06-20 18:13
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$1	06-04 01:31
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	2	$29	15	15	+0	Yes	+$1	05-05 04:32
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?	2	$29	15	15	+0	Yes	+$1	06-13 13:51
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$27	14	14	+0	Yes	+$1	04-30 15:53
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	2	$27	14	14	+0	Yes	+$1	05-05 18:54
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	2	$26	13	13	+0	No	+$0	06-15 09:06
israel closes its airspace by june 10	2	$25	13	13	+0	No	+$0	06-10 23:44
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?	2	$25	13	13	+0	No	+$1	05-22 19:47
Will MrBeast's video get between 60 and 62 million views on day 3?	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$0	05-04 18:35
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	06-25 12:51
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$1	05-28 22:10
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?	2	$23	12	12	+0	Yes	+$1	06-24 01:45
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$21	11	11	+0	Yes	+$1	06-21 21:58
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-29 02:41
Will Michael BlackWolf be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-03 06:32
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	2	$19	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	06-02 14:06
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15?	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	06-14 17:45
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 31?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-31 00:25
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 16?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-15 22:06
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 8?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-08 04:29
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 15?	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	05-15 06:56
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-11 19:38
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 25?	4	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-25 03:07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-10 16:24
highest temperature in kuala lumpur on april 24 2026 37corhigher	4	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-23 18:38
highest temperature in jakarta on april 24 2026 36c	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-23 13:20
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 2?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-01 20:54
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 4?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-03 12:56
highest temperature in mexico city on april 23 2026 22c	4	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-22 17:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 06:09:45	Will SpaceXAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x55763f…
08-31 03:36:25	Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x17e382…
06-29 02:41:56	Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xb3db21…
06-28 23:40:14	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 29?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x9b1c16…
06-28 23:37:08	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 29?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x775823…
06-28 21:49:23	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 29?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xfb0285…
06-28 01:56:43	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x00eb65…
06-28 01:29:22	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 28?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x591bc1…
06-27 11:53:41	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 27?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0xd67c52…
06-27 08:45:43	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 27?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x770ba7…
06-26 20:49:28	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x0679a4…
06-26 12:03:55	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 27?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x47897f…
06-25 12:51:14	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xef4155…
06-25 03:07:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xdf1d0e…
06-25 03:07:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x6ef0dd…
06-25 02:59:49	Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x2ae895…
06-25 02:29:53	Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 25?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x022d04…
06-24 11:01:16	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x31de18…
06-24 11:00:31	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x0aeb15…
06-24 10:17:25	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xaa5130…
06-24 09:56:17	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 24?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xb39140…
06-24 01:45:20	Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x20d334…
06-23 04:10:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x3ed273…
06-23 04:07:13	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xbe98d9…
06-22 00:08:14	Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?	Yes	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0x5b0b24…
06-21 21:58:13	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x82f0df…
06-20 18:13:34	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x61f501…
06-20 16:14:17	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xc2fab0…
06-19 13:48:11	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x07fabb…
06-19 12:51:16	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xafb77c…
06-17 15:51:13	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x596dd5…
06-17 14:24:20	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x9b02d8…
06-17 12:51:59	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xed49d5…
06-16 05:39:51	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 16?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x90d57d…
06-16 03:21:18	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 16?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xba7c84…
06-15 09:06:10	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x237a82…
06-14 17:45:10	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xe7b9bc…
06-14 17:10:36	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xaefe6c…
06-14 00:22:24	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xfea593…
06-14 00:19:54	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 14?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xe4c940…
06-14 00:03:46	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x67d93b…
06-13 13:51:39	Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x16ce4d…
06-12 22:08:45	Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x463ee4…
06-11 19:38:33	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x452ee4…
06-11 18:21:04	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x25b362…
06-10 23:44:22	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xe9e93d…
06-10 16:24:58	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xe24222…
06-10 16:15:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x879099…
06-09 00:01:13	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xaad727…
06-08 04:29:15	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x03ebcf…
06-08 00:39:58	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 8?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x7f0043…
06-07 23:54:15	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x74fcef…
06-07 12:03:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 8?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xb2151a…
06-07 05:00:30	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x0ce1cd…
06-06 15:08:16	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 7?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xbbcfc9…
06-06 00:53:31	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6?	No	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x442d47…
06-05 23:18:33	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6?	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x38be0b…
06-05 06:16:03	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x1b663b…
06-05 06:15:33	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 5?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x643918…
06-04 10:32:33	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 4?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x0d99c5…
06-04 10:32:21	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 4?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xd380b7…
06-04 01:31:36	Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x4da4cc…
06-03 06:48:59	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x8aeb05…
06-03 06:44:02	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x89b9ff…
06-03 06:32:32	Will Michael BlackWolf be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x16a8a3…
06-02 14:06:37	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xacedc0…
06-02 12:43:49	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 3?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xc45ca2…
06-02 12:08:56	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 3?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x03a85e…
06-02 00:01:57	Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0xcb95a2…
06-01 14:17:46	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x661d1c…
06-01 13:56:52	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x2532e4…
06-01 12:16:11	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 2?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x64d84e…
06-01 04:13:21	Will Michael BlackWolf be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x40e564…
05-31 17:25:34	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 1?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x454ed2…
05-31 12:19:26	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 1?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x5c0e81…
05-31 00:25:17	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xe76e76…
05-30 23:15:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 31?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x78c1b8…
05-30 08:48:13	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 30?	No	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x300bf3…
05-30 08:40:47	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x236900…
05-30 02:08:03	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x0e0ca9…
05-30 00:55:39	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xf85de4…
05-29 21:09:25	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x98d835…
05-29 14:40:56	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9e55fb…
05-29 06:21:50	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x226fa2…
05-29 06:14:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x4a0131…
05-28 22:10:21	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x6274a4…
05-28 15:10:42	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on May 29?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xc72544…
05-28 13:59:34	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on May 29?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x1251eb…
05-28 09:33:58	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x033540…
05-28 09:24:47	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xb7245a…
05-28 08:32:10	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x345b62…
05-28 08:01:59	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 28?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x17bd02…
05-27 20:01:58	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 27?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x08c28e…
05-27 16:20:39	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0x5dee72…
05-27 12:08:06	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 28?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x59fede…
05-27 00:35:34	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 27?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x1bc7ee…
05-26 22:29:33	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 27?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xda680c…
05-26 15:13:59	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 27?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x9a259f…
05-26 14:49:34	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on May 27?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x7e7315…
05-26 14:21:36	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on May 27?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x653de2…