Attached-Procedure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$187

Unrealized P&L

+$190

Hit rate

36.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$36.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$623

Open exposure

$1.71K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 06-15 14:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

56% 0% $-203

Other

44% 100% +$16

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No		+2,000	$1,520	86¢	$1.7K	+$190	05-29 16:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$2.5K	0	2,500	-2,500	open	—	06-15 14:03
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-22 08:31
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-22 08:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$1.9K	0	2,000	-2,000	open	—	06-15 14:02
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$1.9K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	03-28 20:25
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	3	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-12 17:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	3	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	$-203	05-08 18:14
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-07 20:44
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	1	$1.5K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	02-01 13:00
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	1	$1.5K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	05-29 16:55
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	10	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-12 09:55
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	01-07 10:25
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	7	$1.1K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	01-07 10:51
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	1	$1.1K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	01-29 16:54
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$1.1K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	01-07 10:39
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1	$1.0K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	01-29 16:49
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	1	$994	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-25 20:03
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$990	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-25 20:05
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	1	$989	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-01 13:04
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	3	$989	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-28 23:38
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	1	$987	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-01 17:18
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$984	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$16	03-25 20:05
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$972	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	01-29 17:09
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	1	$965	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-28 22:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$950	500	500	+0	open	—	05-02 19:26
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	1	$940	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-28 22:13
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	1	$930	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-25 20:51
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	1	$43	44	0	+44	open	—	03-28 22:08
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	1	$17	0	236	-236	open	—	02-01 19:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 14:03:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	2,500	99¢	$2,485	0xeaa918…
06-15 14:02:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,000	97¢	$1,948	0xc50706…
05-29 16:55:27	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	2,000	76¢	$1,520	0x44dc6d…
05-22 08:31:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$994	0xbd453a…
05-22 08:31:39	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$996	0x657c87…
05-08 18:14:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	75¢	$749	0xa81b15…
05-06 11:02:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	217	95¢	$207	0x9e1a0e…
05-06 08:03:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	783	95¢	$745	0x60f25d…
05-06 08:01:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$976	0x155bee…
05-02 19:26:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	500	95¢	$475	0xf5f8cb…
05-02 12:01:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	500	95¢	$475	0xd88465…
04-12 09:55:19	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	1,000	77¢	$770	0xee2ea6…
04-11 10:24:51	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	300	71¢	$213	0x42c727…
04-11 10:24:47	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xe01cdd…
04-11 10:22:49	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	85	71¢	$60	0x7bc0c8…
04-11 10:22:07	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xdafb58…
04-11 10:21:53	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	4	71¢	$2	0xc917d4…
04-11 10:21:45	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xf1925b…
04-11 10:21:11	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x25a3bf…
04-11 10:20:57	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	31	71¢	$22	0x295212…
04-11 10:19:03	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	555	71¢	$394	0x68c1a4…
04-07 20:44:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	1,000	67¢	$670	0xefa8e0…
04-06 18:28:29	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0x7a0dab…
04-03 21:56:43	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$964	0x41cbb7…
04-01 17:18:49	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$987	0x97bcde…
03-28 23:38:38	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	877	99¢	$867	0x8c3030…
03-28 23:10:04	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x704ae7…
03-28 22:13:54	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	1,000	94¢	$940	0xa02af5…
03-28 22:08:50	US strike on Cuba by March 31?	No	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0x45304a…
03-28 22:07:30	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$965	0xb7f12b…
03-28 22:06:56	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x71937a…
03-28 20:25:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	2,000	94¢	$1,880	0x97e6aa…
03-25 20:51:15	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0x23ebb3…
03-25 20:05:53	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$990	0x394dfe…
03-25 20:05:11	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$984	0x29df1c…
03-25 20:03:33	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$994	0xb25291…
02-12 17:28:53	Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	95¢	$952	0x56a523…
02-05 10:40:39	Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	867	85¢	$737	0xd9ea21…
02-05 10:39:49	Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	133	85¢	$113	0x5f5f3b…
02-01 19:33:42	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	236	7¢	$17	0xcc0d7f…
02-01 13:04:18	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$989	0x772f56…
02-01 13:00:56	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	2,000	76¢	$1,520	0xba9e8e…
01-29 17:09:22	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	66	81¢	$53	0x2c11b1…
01-29 16:56:56	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	297	81¢	$241	0xe38f44…
01-29 16:54:50	russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	No	BUY	1,200	94¢	$1,128	0xcbb8ab…
01-29 16:53:40	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x07f26a…
01-29 16:50:36	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	787	81¢	$637	0x1fb834…
01-29 16:49:04	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	No	BUY	1,200	86¢	$1,032	0xf86331…
01-07 10:51:35	will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1d7101…
01-07 10:39:51	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	No	BUY	543	90¢	$489	0xacad43…
01-07 10:38:41	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	No	BUY	657	90¢	$591	0x6a7d81…
01-07 10:33:17	will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7ed606…
01-07 10:31:21	will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x036402…
01-07 10:25:55	will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	BUY	83	96¢	$80	0x96c333…
01-07 10:25:25	will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0x39c886…
01-07 10:25:07	russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	No	BUY	1,200	97¢	$1,162	0x382fbe…
01-07 10:24:17	will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	BUY	83	96¢	$80	0x6d9bfd…
01-07 10:23:57	will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	BUY	784	96¢	$751	0xee08b6…