Cultivated-Leaker — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$49

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.7%

Resolved

121

Trades

329

lifetime

Volume

$1.03K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-10

last 07-16 04:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Other

80% 50% +$51

Crypto

7% 53% $0

Politics

7% 20% -$1

Sports

6% 36% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-16).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	7	$60	40	40	+0	Yes	+$10	06-04 09:01
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?	3	$55	36	36	+0	Yes	+$3	06-16 15:44
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	6	$54	36	36	+0	Yes	+$13	06-05 04:53
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference?	7	$52	31	31	+0	Yes	+$10	06-17 18:31
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	10	$49	34	29	+5	Yes	+$3	05-11 14:48
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	11	$45	49	49	+0	No	$0	05-22 15:47
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?	4	$41	24	31	-7	Yes	+$1	05-06 16:26
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	7	$38	25	25	+0	Yes	+$4	06-11 18:55
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	2	$33	20	20	+0	Yes	+$5	06-12 19:56
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?	6	$30	19	19	+0	Yes	+$4	05-22 16:12
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?	2	$25	19	19	+0	Yes	+$0	06-16 08:25
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?	5	$25	17	17	+0	Yes	+$4	06-12 19:19
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	4	$23	17	17	+0	Yes	+$1	04-28 02:34
will warsh say balance sheet during june press conference 20260608181156659 154 444 385	5	$20	13	13	+0	Yes	+$2	06-17 18:39
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	2	$20	12	12	+0	Yes	$0	06-08 16:55
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the May meeting?	8	$19	32	32	+0	No	-$10	05-20 20:40
will warsh say stable or stability during june press conference 20260608181156666 589 294	5	$19	12	12	+0	Yes	+$5	06-17 18:32
will warsh say all time high or all time low during june press conference 20260608181156669 923	4	$17	10	10	+0	No	+$3	06-17 19:43
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?	4	$16	39	75	-36	No	+$1	05-01 21:08
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	2	$12	8	8	+0	Yes	+$4	06-12 18:56
will warsh say trump during june press conference 20260608181156650	2	$12	7	7	+0	No	+$2	06-17 19:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-06 14:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	4	$11	10	10	+0	Up	+$1	05-06 15:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	5	$10	11	11	+0	Down	+$0	05-06 15:12
will warsh say good afternoon during june press conference 20260608181156653	2	$10	14	14	+0	No	-$10	06-17 18:30
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?	2	$10	16	16	+0	No	+$0	06-11 16:27
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	5	$10	11	11	+0	Yes	+$4	04-29 09:20
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	2	$10	26	26	+0	No	$0	06-11 16:38
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?	2	$9	77	77	+0	No	-$1	05-02 03:02
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-06?	4	$9	9	9	+0	Yes	+$4	05-06 12:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 04:51:53	kmi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 15 2026 0pt31	Yes	SELL	1	61¢	$1	0xc24c39…
07-06 07:05:10	kmi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 15 2026 0pt31	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xedbce6…
07-06 07:03:25	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	No	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x409449…
07-01 15:36:58	Will ITG's market cap be between $2.7B and $3.3B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0x54db5b…
06-29 21:02:05	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x531ac7…
06-29 21:01:17	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	17	7¢	$1	0x00a682…
06-28 14:59:34	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	No	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0x790cce…
06-28 14:43:05	Will CopperTech Metals' market cap be between $3.6B and $4.2B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x2097fb…
06-28 14:34:44	Will ITG's market cap be between $2.7B and $3.3B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xb57f4f…
06-27 21:50:32	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xef24cb…
06-27 21:50:25	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x6de5b3…
06-27 21:50:14	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x2f2cd4…
06-27 21:50:07	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0xd6a55b…
06-27 21:42:28	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0xa2edc7…
06-27 21:41:53	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5b68c8…
06-27 21:41:37	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x103e5f…
06-27 21:41:23	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x9a426b…
06-27 21:41:04	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xfb9e6c…
06-27 21:38:55	Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x19a983…
06-26 04:30:38	Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2	30¢	$0	0xf32594…
06-26 04:30:17	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0xd3243e…
06-26 01:42:14	will sweden be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003092	Yes	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0xce31aa…
06-26 01:41:43	Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x42d929…
06-25 20:17:34	Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x7cee1b…
06-25 17:49:47	Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x710866…
06-25 17:49:31	Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0xe42fca…
06-25 17:48:59	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x29cf5e…
06-25 03:02:28	Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc22e21…
06-25 02:28:44	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x6be679…
06-25 01:08:10	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x9568c2…
06-25 01:07:44	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x6722f9…
06-25 01:07:31	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x053e7c…
06-24 20:31:26	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x350ae3…
06-24 00:58:53	Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x3895eb…
06-22 17:03:47	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xe00ab7…
06-22 17:03:34	Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc91df0…
06-22 17:03:08	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xf7b2ad…
06-21 01:22:22	will saudi arabia be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003057	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0xa01bfe…
06-21 01:19:56	Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0x5feda8…
06-21 01:18:49	will bosnia and herzegovina be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003091	No	SELL	2	33¢	$1	0x35afab…
06-21 01:16:56	will ghana be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003076	Yes	SELL	8	38¢	$3	0xc4a9ee…
06-21 01:15:23	Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0x84033d…
06-21 01:14:59	Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x75f6e9…
06-21 01:13:37	Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	SELL	2	87¢	$1	0x4a850c…
06-20 05:07:02	will turkiye be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003093	Yes	SELL	3	7¢	$0	0x853045…
06-19 08:21:14	will saudi arabia be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003057	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x14f026…
06-19 08:19:49	will ghana be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003076	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x25ef72…
06-19 08:19:47	will ghana be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003076	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd03256…
06-19 08:19:47	will ghana be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003076	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x6a6234…
06-19 08:19:17	will sweden be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003092	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xefbdf4…
06-19 08:18:53	will senegal be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003070	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x857e8b…
06-19 08:18:28	will bosnia and herzegovina be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003091	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x21dbb8…
06-19 08:16:46	Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa6fe07…
06-19 08:16:32	Will Uruguay finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x5399db…
06-19 08:11:35	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xaf500f…
06-19 08:11:25	Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x749cae…
06-19 08:11:10	Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x08fcbc…
06-19 08:10:50	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xccbebd…
06-19 03:07:58	Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x947db6…
06-19 03:07:11	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x5c2cde…
06-18 13:39:22	Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x2935c7…
06-18 13:28:10	Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xe44487…
06-18 13:26:26	Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x687e2d…
06-18 13:25:10	will norway be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003090	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x355ea2…
06-18 13:24:08	will turkiye be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003093	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x8e665e…
06-18 13:23:26	will scotland be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003089	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xe736e8…
06-18 13:22:31	will sweden be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003092	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x067d17…
06-18 13:18:25	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xd99312…
06-18 13:18:10	Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x7f53d8…
06-18 13:17:14	Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xc0acd2…
06-18 11:54:56	Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x4c3cd7…
06-18 05:05:32	Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x516dd1…
06-18 05:05:13	Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x0201df…
06-18 05:02:41	Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xe2978d…
06-18 05:01:50	Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x5dbb5b…
06-18 05:01:41	Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x2b79c5…
06-18 05:01:23	Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x1c0ffa…
06-18 05:01:13	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x3dbf60…
06-18 05:00:52	Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xcbc59c…
06-18 05:00:25	Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x74ec03…
06-17 19:43:43	will warsh say all time high or all time low during june press conference 20260608181156669 923	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x47b1b8…
06-17 19:29:56	will warsh say depression or recession during june press conference 20260608181156654	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xf5bcd5…
06-17 19:29:43	will warsh say stock during june press conference 20260608181156662 243 416	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x1aec1f…
06-17 19:29:34	will warsh say trump during june press conference 20260608181156650	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x66151e…
06-17 18:45:05	will warsh say inflation 40 times during june press conference 20260608181156645	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x2ff88a…
06-17 18:41:19	will warsh say groupthink or group think during june press conference 20260608181156670 525 245	No	SELL	3	7¢	$0	0xb0b677…
06-17 18:39:47	will warsh say balance sheet during june press conference 20260608181156659 154 444 385	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x994d7f…
06-17 18:33:38	will warsh say all time high or all time low during june press conference 20260608181156669 923	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x848d92…
06-17 18:32:56	will warsh say trump during june press conference 20260608181156650	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x325f4c…
06-17 18:32:26	will warsh say stable or stability during june press conference 20260608181156666 589 294	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xfe178f…
06-17 18:32:17	will warsh say jerome or powell during june press conference 20260608181156649	Yes	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x14535a…
06-17 18:31:22	will warsh say fed during june press conference 20260608181156656	Yes	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x64dc10…
06-17 18:30:58	will warsh say good afternoon during june press conference 20260608181156653	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0xf1ff91…
06-17 15:55:53	will warsh say balance sheet during june press conference 20260608181156659 154 444 385	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x58bccc…
06-17 15:55:08	will warsh say jerome or powell during june press conference 20260608181156649	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0xabcf4f…
06-17 15:54:19	will warsh say dual mandate during june press conference 20260608181156660 159 592	Yes	SELL	4	84¢	$3	0xe30a40…
06-17 13:00:43	will warsh say inflation 40 times during june press conference 20260608181156645	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x135678…
06-17 12:58:32	will warsh say money during june press conference 20260608181156652	Yes	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0xe3067f…
06-17 06:59:31	will warsh say balance sheet during june press conference 20260608181156659 154 444 385	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xf1824d…
06-17 06:58:58	will warsh say money during june press conference 20260608181156652	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x5ac9ba…