Cultivated-Leaker — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.9%

Resolved

Trades

162

lifetime

Volume

$364

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-10

last 06-27 21:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

60% 40% +$5

Crypto

21% 56% +$0

Politics

12% — —

Sports

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will warsh say fed during june press conference 20260608181156656	6	$50	28	31	-3	open	—	06-17 18:31
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	4	$23	17	17	+0	Yes	+$1	04-28 02:34
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	6	$22	27	11	+16	open	—	04-28 10:24
will warsh say balance sheet during june press conference 20260608181156659 154 444 385	5	$20	13	13	+0	open	—	06-17 18:39
will warsh say stable or stability during june press conference 20260608181156666	5	$19	12	12	+0	open	—	06-17 18:32
will warsh say all time high or all time low during june press conference 20260608181156669 923	4	$17	10	10	+0	open	—	06-17 19:43
will warsh say trump during june press conference 20260608181156650	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	06-17 19:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-06 14:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	4	$11	10	10	+0	Up	+$1	05-06 15:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	5	$10	11	11	+0	Down	+$0	05-06 15:12
will warsh say good afternoon during june press conference 20260608181156653	2	$10	14	14	+0	open	—	06-17 18:30
will warsh say stock during june press conference 20260608181156662	5	$8	6	6	+0	open	—	06-17 19:29
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	5	$7	6	6	+0	open	—	04-21 10:44
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	6	$7	14	14	+0	open	—	04-13 02:52
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	3	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	04-17 11:02
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	2	$6	6	6	+0	Up	+$0	05-06 14:20
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the May meeting?	2	$6	11	0	+11	open	—	04-26 15:32
will sweden be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003092	3	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	06-26 01:42
will ghana be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003076	4	$6	8	8	+0	open	—	06-21 01:16
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	2	$6	4	4	+0	Down	+$2	05-06 14:08
will warsh say depression or recession during june press conference 20260608181156654	3	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	06-17 19:29
will warsh say dual mandate during june press conference 20260608181156660	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	06-17 15:54
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Down	$-5	05-06 14:25
will warsh say maximum employment during june press conference 20260608181156668	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	06-17 06:48
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	3	$5	5	4	+0	open	—	06-27 21:50
will warsh say inflation 40 times during june press conference 20260608181156645	4	$4	5	5	+0	open	—	06-17 18:45
will warsh say money during june press conference 20260608181156652	3	$4	4	4	+0	open	—	06-17 12:58
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	1	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	04-19 11:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	4	$3	4	4	+0	Down	$-1	05-06 15:36
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	4	$3	11	2	+9	Yes	+$6	04-26 11:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 21:50:32	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xef24cb…
06-27 21:50:25	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x6de5b3…
06-27 21:50:14	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x2f2cd4…
06-27 21:50:07	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0xd6a55b…
06-27 21:42:28	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0xa2edc7…
06-27 21:41:53	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5b68c8…
06-27 21:41:37	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x103e5f…
06-27 21:41:23	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x9a426b…
06-27 21:41:04	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xfb9e6c…
06-26 04:30:17	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0xd3243e…
06-26 01:42:14	will sweden be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003092	Yes	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0xce31aa…
06-21 01:22:22	will saudi arabia be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003057	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0xa01bfe…
06-21 01:19:56	Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0x5feda8…
06-21 01:18:49	will bosnia and herzegovina be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003091	No	SELL	2	33¢	$1	0x35afab…
06-21 01:16:56	will ghana be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003076	Yes	SELL	8	38¢	$3	0xc4a9ee…
06-21 01:14:59	Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x75f6e9…
06-20 05:07:02	will turkiye be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003093	Yes	SELL	3	7¢	$0	0x853045…
06-19 08:21:14	will saudi arabia be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003057	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x14f026…
06-19 08:19:49	will ghana be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003076	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x25ef72…
06-19 08:19:47	will ghana be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003076	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd03256…
06-19 08:19:47	will ghana be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003076	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x6a6234…
06-19 08:19:17	will sweden be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003092	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xefbdf4…
06-19 08:18:53	will senegal be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003070	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x857e8b…
06-19 08:18:28	will bosnia and herzegovina be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003091	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x21dbb8…
06-19 08:11:35	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xaf500f…
06-19 08:11:25	Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x749cae…
06-19 08:11:10	Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x08fcbc…
06-19 08:10:50	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xccbebd…
06-18 13:39:22	Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x2935c7…
06-18 13:25:10	will norway be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003090	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x355ea2…
06-18 13:24:08	will turkiye be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003093	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x8e665e…
06-18 13:23:26	will scotland be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003089	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xe736e8…
06-18 13:22:31	will sweden be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003092	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x067d17…
06-17 19:43:43	will warsh say all time high or all time low during june press conference 20260608181156669 923	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x47b1b8…
06-17 19:29:56	will warsh say depression or recession during june press conference 20260608181156654	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xf5bcd5…
06-17 19:29:43	will warsh say stock during june press conference 20260608181156662 243 416	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x1aec1f…
06-17 19:29:34	will warsh say trump during june press conference 20260608181156650	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x66151e…
06-17 18:45:05	will warsh say inflation 40 times during june press conference 20260608181156645	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x2ff88a…
06-17 18:41:19	will warsh say groupthink or group think during june press conference 20260608181156670 525 245	No	SELL	3	7¢	$0	0xb0b677…
06-17 18:39:47	will warsh say balance sheet during june press conference 20260608181156659 154 444 385	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x994d7f…
06-17 18:33:38	will warsh say all time high or all time low during june press conference 20260608181156669 923	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x848d92…
06-17 18:32:56	will warsh say trump during june press conference 20260608181156650	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x325f4c…
06-17 18:32:26	will warsh say stable or stability during june press conference 20260608181156666 589 294	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xfe178f…
06-17 18:32:17	will warsh say jerome or powell during june press conference 20260608181156649	Yes	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x14535a…
06-17 18:31:22	will warsh say fed during june press conference 20260608181156656	Yes	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x64dc10…
06-17 18:30:58	will warsh say good afternoon during june press conference 20260608181156653	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0xf1ff91…
06-17 15:55:53	will warsh say balance sheet during june press conference 20260608181156659 154 444 385	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x58bccc…
06-17 15:55:08	will warsh say jerome or powell during june press conference 20260608181156649	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0xabcf4f…
06-17 15:54:19	will warsh say dual mandate during june press conference 20260608181156660 159 592	Yes	SELL	4	84¢	$3	0xe30a40…
06-17 13:00:43	will warsh say inflation 40 times during june press conference 20260608181156645	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x135678…
06-17 12:58:32	will warsh say money during june press conference 20260608181156652	Yes	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0xe3067f…
06-17 06:59:31	will warsh say balance sheet during june press conference 20260608181156659 154 444 385	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xf1824d…
06-17 06:58:58	will warsh say money during june press conference 20260608181156652	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x5ac9ba…
06-17 06:58:28	will warsh say all time high or all time low during june press conference 20260608181156669 923	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x58a21f…
06-17 06:58:05	will warsh say balance sheet during june press conference 20260608181156659 154 444 385	Yes	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0x932240…
06-17 06:54:46	will warsh say stock during june press conference 20260608181156662 243 416	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xdcdfc9…
06-17 06:53:46	will warsh say money during june press conference 20260608181156652	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xd841f9…
06-17 06:50:08	will warsh say depression or recession during june press conference 20260608181156654	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x3302b9…
06-17 06:48:20	will warsh say maximum employment during june press conference 20260608181156668 768 911	Yes	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0xd8fd5f…
06-16 15:49:35	will warsh say stock during june press conference 20260608181156662	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x48c233…
06-16 15:49:11	will warsh say fed during june press conference 20260608181156656	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x568d01…
06-16 15:48:05	will warsh say balance sheet during june press conference 20260608181156659	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x7db5cd…
06-16 15:47:14	will warsh say fed during june press conference 20260608181156656	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x8bd4a1…
06-16 15:46:47	will warsh say good afternoon during june press conference 20260608181156653	Yes	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x8247e9…
06-16 08:27:48	will warsh say fed during june press conference 20260608181156656	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x9c9224…
06-16 08:27:18	will warsh say groupthink or group think during june press conference 20260608181156670	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x8155c2…
06-16 08:27:09	will warsh say groupthink or group think during june press conference 20260608181156670	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xaf180e…
06-16 08:26:57	will warsh say all time high or all time low during june press conference 20260608181156669	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x3983c0…
06-16 08:25:57	will warsh say depression or recession during june press conference 20260608181156654	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x7e4125…
06-16 08:25:40	will warsh say fed during june press conference 20260608181156656	Yes	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0xaf392b…
06-14 02:54:46	will warsh say stable or stability during june press conference 20260608181156666	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xcbe619…
06-14 02:48:07	will warsh say stock during june press conference 20260608181156662	Yes	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0xaaef64…
06-14 01:54:55	will warsh say stable or stability during june press conference 20260608181156666	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x2a3b39…
06-14 01:34:03	will warsh say fed during june press conference 20260608181156656	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xde0107…
06-14 01:32:16	will warsh say stable or stability during june press conference 20260608181156666	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x5a2593…
06-14 01:10:52	will warsh say stock during june press conference 20260608181156662	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xb6fccf…
06-14 01:09:51	will warsh say crypto or bitcoin during june press conference 20260608181156658	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xb1a996…
06-14 01:08:43	will warsh say maximum employment during june press conference 20260608181156668	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xb847dd…
06-14 01:08:27	will warsh say stable or stability during june press conference 20260608181156666	Yes	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x5063e1…
06-14 01:03:28	will warsh say inflation 40 times during june press conference 20260608181156645	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xbbc005…
06-14 01:03:28	will warsh say inflation 40 times during june press conference 20260608181156645	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x9b078c…
06-13 05:31:09	will warsh say dual mandate during june press conference 20260608181156660	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x472744…
05-06 16:24:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xbfd625…
05-06 16:23:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xfef181…
05-06 16:19:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x986741…
05-06 16:03:58	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	110	0¢	$0	0xb79197…
05-06 15:53:21	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x5dbb40…
05-06 15:53:00	Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x9486c3…
05-06 15:52:24	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x056814…
05-06 15:47:56	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	110	1¢	$1	0x368670…
05-06 15:36:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0xb60864…
05-06 15:34:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x577bbc…
05-06 15:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x098b73…
05-06 15:27:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x7f3a14…
05-06 15:26:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xa2f8c4…
05-06 15:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe4298e…
05-06 15:24:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x52da31…
05-06 15:24:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xec649a…
05-06 15:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x269fe8…
05-06 15:23:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x5058fe…