Near-Effector — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.9%

Resolved

Trades

264

lifetime

Volume

$11.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$44

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-19

last 05-19 12:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

74% 100% +$1

Politics

26% 50% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	10	$564	429	429	+0	No	+$0	05-08 23:17
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	7	$476	245	245	+0	open	—	04-28 02:04
will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	7	$461	241	241	+0	open	—	04-12 16:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	7	$377	196	196	+0	open	—	05-07 20:45
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	6	$314	252	252	+0	open	—	03-20 09:49
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	2	$297	158	158	+0	open	—	05-11 16:33
will akshay bhatia win the 2026 masters tournament	9	$294	490	490	+0	open	—	04-09 10:19
will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	2	$291	147	147	+0	open	—	04-14 12:20
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	7	$285	498	498	+0	open	—	04-24 10:18
will si woo kim win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$283	144	144	+0	open	—	04-08 05:39
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 300 319	2	$282	144	144	+0	open	—	04-02 14:37
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 420 439	2	$277	140	140	+0	open	—	03-26 09:04
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	6	$276	486	486	+0	open	—	05-07 03:04
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 260 279	2	$273	151	151	+0	open	—	03-30 16:29
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	5	$272	519	519	+0	open	—	04-25 10:58
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	5	$271	144	144	+0	open	—	04-21 02:13
Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?	3	$271	137	137	+0	open	—	04-22 07:04
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	2	$270	138	138	+0	open	—	04-26 13:31
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	4	$269	137	137	+0	open	—	04-27 22:38
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$269	137	137	+0	open	—	04-27 02:11
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	4	$267	138	138	+0	open	—	04-20 21:19
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	3	$265	136	136	+0	open	—	04-15 11:03
will brooks koepka win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$262	133	133	+0	open	—	04-10 08:58
will kuwait strike iran by march 31	2	$261	136	136	+0	open	—	03-23 06:31
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	2	$256	133	133	+0	open	—	04-06 18:58
will gold gc hit low 3600 by end of march	4	$253	128	128	+0	open	—	03-26 00:14
will gold gc hit low 4300 by end of march	4	$249	127	127	+0	open	—	03-30 21:12
will the uk join the board of peace	2	$249	126	126	+0	open	—	03-30 06:11
will trn thanh mn be the next president of vietnam	2	$246	127	127	+0	open	—	03-31 21:36
will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	4	$241	123	123	+0	open	—	04-21 10:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 12:18:15	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	67	5¢	$3	0xc6aab0…
05-19 05:23:55	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xe8ffb4…
05-19 05:23:53	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x25dc34…
05-19 05:23:51	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xb06ac7…
05-18 22:25:22	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0xb06476…
05-18 22:25:22	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	36	96¢	$34	0x31ee84…
05-13 19:04:14	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	93¢	$34	0xcb1a79…
05-13 19:04:14	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	93¢	$51	0x8b069b…
05-13 14:47:45	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	58	99¢	$57	0x22e671…
05-13 03:46:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	99	97¢	$96	0xd5ad3f…
05-13 03:46:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	24	97¢	$23	0xc42f75…
05-13 00:44:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	123	97¢	$119	0xc09c0f…
05-12 04:52:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	3¢	$3	0xd2ee2f…
05-12 04:52:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	212	3¢	$6	0x79fd9a…
05-12 04:52:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	3¢	$3	0x3a3011…
05-12 03:41:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	410	3¢	$11	0x2e8d53…
05-11 23:27:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	109	97¢	$106	0x9fce75…
05-11 17:57:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	109	96¢	$105	0xd4cea5…
05-11 16:33:41	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	158	94¢	$149	0xbc89f4…
05-11 15:14:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	158	94¢	$148	0xc621fe…
05-09 13:36:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	226	4¢	$8	0xf11fb0…
05-09 10:16:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	226	4¢	$8	0x099949…
05-08 23:17:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	125	99¢	$124	0x154f70…
05-08 23:16:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x3b96cd…
05-08 18:28:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0xebdc1e…
05-08 18:28:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xd49490…
05-08 16:32:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	148	98¢	$145	0x6781dd…
05-08 14:53:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	148	98¢	$145	0xcefc1d…
05-08 10:14:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	2¢	$0	0xb4570a…
05-08 05:45:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	3¢	$4	0x4aca23…
05-08 02:53:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0xc8efea…
05-08 02:53:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	3¢	$3	0x221d10…
05-07 20:45:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0xd4613d…
05-07 20:45:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	104	97¢	$101	0xbd122b…
05-07 20:45:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	17	97¢	$17	0x6764d1…
05-07 19:38:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	136	96¢	$130	0xe5fc38…
05-07 08:21:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0xff3985…
05-07 08:21:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	56	95¢	$53	0xadb156…
05-07 04:21:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	60	96¢	$58	0xf748dc…
05-07 03:04:03	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	99	1¢	$1	0xc728c8…
05-07 03:04:01	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	251	1¢	$2	0xaf76c3…
05-06 22:36:37	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	350	2¢	$6	0x8cb4e0…
05-06 16:42:25	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	52	99¢	$51	0x944925…
05-06 16:42:25	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	84	99¢	$83	0x9009ab…
05-06 12:46:58	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	136	99¢	$134	0xe8713d…
05-06 06:33:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	3¢	$4	0x797852…
05-06 04:58:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	3¢	$4	0x69efd5…
04-28 02:04:22	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xd2495f…
04-27 22:38:08	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xc5eaea…
04-27 22:38:08	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	87	98¢	$86	0x2f4579…
04-27 18:46:20	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	129	98¢	$127	0xdb93b6…
04-27 18:46:20	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x3f592c…
04-27 15:03:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	SELL	146	2¢	$2	0x64fb8f…
04-27 12:46:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	BUY	146	2¢	$3	0xa833d6…
04-27 05:02:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	68	2¢	$1	0xebf490…
04-27 05:02:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	72	2¢	$2	0xdfb50a…
04-27 05:02:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	76	2¢	$2	0xcec257…
04-27 05:02:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	67	2¢	$1	0x163b6e…
04-27 03:15:50	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	283	2¢	$7	0xdad60a…
04-27 02:11:36	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	137	98¢	$135	0xb11fb8…
04-26 19:23:24	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	137	98¢	$135	0x7f0d20…
04-26 13:31:18	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	No	SELL	138	98¢	$135	0xbfee64…
04-26 12:01:16	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	No	BUY	138	98¢	$135	0x8ecb3c…
04-26 09:46:06	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	1¢	$1	0xf55fa9…
04-26 09:46:06	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	154	1¢	$2	0x96d768…
04-26 09:46:06	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	1¢	$0	0x7e511b…
04-26 09:46:06	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0x60546d…
04-26 09:46:06	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	1¢	$0	0x2c8b4e…
04-26 05:00:08	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	280	1¢	$4	0xc20255…
04-26 02:01:46	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	108	5¢	$5	0xbe3c91…
04-26 02:01:46	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	30	5¢	$1	0xabfdc7…
04-26 02:01:44	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	105	5¢	$5	0xdee1de…
04-26 02:01:44	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	118	5¢	$6	0xa3f7e8…
04-25 22:42:46	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	361	5¢	$17	0xf646ea…
04-25 15:41:56	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	SELL	27	5¢	$1	0x9cca31…
04-25 13:13:06	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0x563121…
04-25 10:58:16	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	385	1¢	$5	0xbd96f0…
04-25 08:04:50	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	385	1¢	$4	0x90d129…
04-25 02:08:28	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	38	98¢	$37	0x522fcc…
04-25 02:08:28	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x498be6…
04-25 02:08:28	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	46	98¢	$45	0x042533…
04-24 22:20:56	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	92	97¢	$89	0x0cd352…
04-24 15:38:26	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	53	98¢	$52	0xdd21d9…
04-24 15:37:46	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	84	98¢	$82	0x050672…
04-24 14:11:22	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x6f0b6d…
04-24 14:10:44	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	128	98¢	$126	0x39239b…
04-24 10:18:08	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	2¢	$2	0xebb01d…
04-24 10:18:08	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	2¢	$2	0x73b178…
04-24 10:18:08	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	2¢	$1	0x338245…
04-24 10:18:08	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	134	2¢	$3	0x31553b…
04-24 08:24:18	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	360	2¢	$7	0x241886…
04-24 05:17:40	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	138	98¢	$135	0x63fbf0…
04-24 00:23:26	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	138	98¢	$135	0x010f17…
04-23 22:53:54	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0xf8342c…
04-23 22:53:54	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	1¢	$1	0xdbfaa8…
04-23 22:53:54	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	1¢	$1	0x9cbeb2…
04-23 22:53:54	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	1¢	$1	0x361ecd…
04-23 22:53:54	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	1¢	$1	0x19e9d2…
04-23 18:38:30	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	374	1¢	$5	0xadacaf…
04-23 09:58:30	Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	180	1¢	$2	0x5b0e4c…