Fumbling-Aardvark — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$123

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

94.5%

Resolved

Trades

1,175

lifetime

Volume

$37.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$204

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-09 17:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

68% 67% +$120

Other

21% — —

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

2% 50% +$3

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	+110	$102	91¢	$100	$-2	06-08 20:09
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	+75	$41	56¢	$42	+$0	06-08 09:42
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	+45	$31	72¢	$33	+$1	06-07 22:16
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	+30	$20	68¢	$21	+$0	06-09 11:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+48	$22	18¢	$9	$-14	06-09 14:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	18	$2.1K	1,610	1,055	+555	open	—	01-25 17:48
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	6	$2.1K	2,075	52	+2,023	open	—	06-02 10:58
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	33	$1.5K	1,052	1,052	+0	open	—	01-29 07:25
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	12	$1.4K	1,670	0	+1,670	open	—	02-17 00:10
will germany strike iran by march 31	7	$1.0K	580	580	+0	open	—	03-04 16:49
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	3	$946	751	230	+521	open	—	03-01 14:12
israel strikes iran by january 23 2026	7	$801	422	422	+0	open	—	01-24 14:39
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$796	773	60	+713	open	—	04-30 20:11
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	5	$692	405	338	+68	open	—	03-04 19:35
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	7	$652	412	282	+130	open	—	04-12 14:04
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	16	$602	496	358	+138	open	—	01-31 11:47
Iran leadership change by May 31?	12	$573	337	337	+0	open	—	05-17 13:47
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	4	$545	337	337	+0	open	—	04-22 09:21
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$522	270	270	+0	open	—	05-17 10:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	21	$507	355	296	+60	No	+$50	05-07 19:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	23	$494	845	845	+0	open	—	05-27 00:37
internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	11	$471	324	264	+60	open	—	04-16 17:21
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$454	240	240	+0	open	—	02-28 09:23
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	12	$440	281	281	+0	open	—	03-28 08:20
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	12	$430	615	615	+0	open	—	04-03 15:44
will iran strike cyprus in march	13	$421	325	325	-0	open	—	03-11 21:10
uel stu3 yob1 2026 01 29 stu3	9	$418	405	49	+355	open	—	01-29 21:51
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?	4	$410	225	225	+0	open	—	04-15 12:07
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	8	$389	267	267	+0	open	—	04-07 22:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	41	$365	277	277	+0	open	—	05-10 20:22
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	15	$351	391	391	+0	open	—	06-08 09:23
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	16	$342	280	280	+0	open	—	03-19 09:18
will google gemini 3 score at least 70 on the frontiermath benchmark	6	$341	240	163	+77	open	—	01-09 23:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	4	$318	200	200	+0	open	—	04-28 14:34
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	11	$314	230	230	+0	open	—	03-25 23:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 21:48:34	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	SELL	36	12¢	$4	0x228c25…
06-09 21:42:42	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	SELL	22	12¢	$3	0x233580…
06-09 17:07:52	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	SELL	67	19¢	$13	0x206dca…
06-09 16:53:10	will lennart kahl score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x9fe378…
06-09 16:52:01	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	SELL	110	16¢	$18	0x4b5206…
06-09 16:50:45	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0x76713f…
06-09 16:50:33	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	BUY	121	8¢	$10	0xadfa69…
06-09 16:49:49	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	BUY	105	5¢	$5	0xba80c5…
06-09 16:49:33	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xd01c3c…
06-09 15:26:36	will lennart kahl score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x6d4626…
06-09 14:26:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	135	8¢	$11	0x0ce1e7…
06-09 14:16:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	20¢	$10	0xc913e2…
06-09 13:46:15	will lennart kahl score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	72	99¢	$71	0xd2945b…
06-09 11:28:15	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x7420c6…
06-09 05:36:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x2112ff…
06-08 23:50:12	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x590e6b…
06-08 23:16:51	will portugal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134507	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0xe089e8…
06-08 21:19:42	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	27	28¢	$8	0x3472e8…
06-08 21:19:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0xef03b4…
06-08 21:04:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	19	30¢	$6	0x4a6e07…
06-08 20:52:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	16¢	$6	0x4fead3…
06-08 20:28:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x64f4ab…
06-08 20:27:01	will portugal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134507	Yes	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xac53e0…
06-08 20:25:51	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0x456055…
06-08 20:09:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	BUY	110	93¢	$102	0x9f1ddb…
06-08 09:42:10	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	75	55¢	$41	0x16c71e…
06-08 09:25:40	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	6	60¢	$3	0xfca069…
06-08 09:23:28	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	19	60¢	$12	0x2ecb8a…
06-08 09:23:21	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	25	40¢	$10	0xa68d1d…
06-08 09:15:54	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x771576…
06-08 09:11:30	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	18	60¢	$11	0x504667…
06-08 09:08:16	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x5f0e3c…
06-08 09:06:28	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xa2b0fc…
06-07 22:16:33	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	45	70¢	$31	0x31a4de…
06-07 20:48:39	will portugal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134507	Yes	BUY	46	48¢	$22	0x896137…
06-07 20:42:36	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xc40f15…
06-07 20:35:58	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xd0633d…
06-07 20:21:51	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	60	56¢	$33	0x5c90f7…
06-07 20:13:33	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	35	42¢	$15	0xad309f…
06-07 20:12:06	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	25	42¢	$10	0xd8bd7f…
06-07 20:06:21	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	108	43¢	$46	0x3b0c6f…
06-07 20:04:04	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	33	29¢	$10	0x56ba34…
06-07 20:01:01	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	88	66¢	$58	0x4ead19…
06-07 19:59:31	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	72	56¢	$40	0x1c4c6b…
06-07 19:59:30	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0xa412df…
06-07 19:57:18	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	88	67¢	$59	0xeaa269…
06-07 19:36:27	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x76091e…
06-07 19:35:15	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	45	35¢	$16	0x8c83ae…
06-07 19:23:34	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x5cd411…
06-07 19:16:25	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x34e45f…
06-07 19:16:16	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0x0316fd…
06-07 19:13:16	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x794a99…
06-07 19:11:48	will portugal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134507	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x28e601…
06-07 19:10:28	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0x8a94a4…
06-07 19:09:30	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	121	39¢	$47	0xefcd5c…
06-07 19:05:57	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0xeb8695…
06-07 19:04:06	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x2c95f2…
06-07 19:03:12	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	41	70¢	$29	0xa481c5…
06-07 18:59:10	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x476679…
06-07 18:51:42	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0x40889d…
06-07 18:47:37	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0x9466a3…
06-06 11:55:13	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	27	85¢	$23	0x547e99…
06-06 11:55:13	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x473c8c…
06-03 21:41:46	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Spurs	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x27a109…
06-02 10:58:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,013	99¢	$1,001	0x6dc6cd…
06-02 09:59:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,010	99¢	$1,001	0x9ea041…
06-01 17:59:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	110	92¢	$101	0xbb429e…
06-01 17:32:33	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	SELL	70	13¢	$9	0x8e0725…
06-01 17:18:03	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0x4e4ab6…
06-01 16:18:33	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	BUY	70	15¢	$10	0xfc0f67…
06-01 15:43:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xb1912f…
06-01 15:41:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x294f28…
06-01 15:29:33	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0xa4b7d0…
05-31 23:34:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	74¢	$42	0xfa4a30…
05-31 23:21:41	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	74¢	$10	0x93f421…
05-31 21:41:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	70¢	$49	0xc43613…
05-28 17:39:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	44¢	$26	0x01f5c5…
05-28 17:14:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	35¢	$24	0x8f2b0a…
05-27 11:26:15	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	138	40¢	$56	0x79a573…
05-27 00:37:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	22¢	$44	0xf1b6c2…
05-26 17:12:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0xfd0fe7…
05-26 17:11:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0x6e5d21…
05-26 16:01:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	25¢	$30	0x0f2d2a…
05-26 15:43:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0x3a9398…
05-22 22:30:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	109	82¢	$89	0x925b6f…
05-21 18:05:01	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0x71bb8c…
05-21 18:03:53	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	72¢	$3	0xf2d88f…
05-21 18:02:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x41453e…
05-21 18:02:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0xc3a456…
05-21 18:01:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	72¢	$11	0xba690e…
05-21 11:03:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	18¢	$27	0xab262a…
05-21 08:01:55	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	42	30¢	$13	0x68bd75…
05-21 07:59:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	11	30¢	$3	0xd9c81b…
05-21 07:56:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0x60da5e…
05-21 07:42:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	67	30¢	$20	0xe25012…
05-21 07:40:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x43b44b…
05-21 07:24:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0xedece4…
05-21 07:24:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	17	30¢	$5	0x4d4a18…
05-20 22:12:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	60	34¢	$20	0x4d02d9…
05-20 21:23:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	75	18¢	$14	0x2e34e9…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	194	$54.1M	81,807	06-09 23:45
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	188	$2.16M	34,812	06-09 23:45
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	179	$727.5K	56,960	06-01 03:47
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	157	$286.5K	2,386	06-08 20:50
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	156	$132.6K	11,434	06-09 22:23
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	147	$237.3K	22,519	03-28 06:31
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	145	$480.9K	53,724	06-09 23:51
(anonymous) 0x4ffe…9f71	142	$28.5K	4,759	06-06 15:54