Fumbling-Aardvark — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$559

Unrealized P&L

+$67

Hit rate

77.6%

Resolved

477

Trades

2,110

lifetime

Volume

$64.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

$302

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-26 23:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 177 days

Categories

Politics

52% 68% -$454

Other

28% 48% -$153

Sports

14% 42% +$54

Crypto

5% 36% -$41

Tech

1% 75% +$34

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	+175	$100	94¢	$165	+$65	10-12 01:34
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+72	$49	74¢	$53	+$4	10-26 19:50
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+280	$50	18¢	$49	-$1	10-21 22:26
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?	No	-40	-$34	87¢	$-35	-$1	05-22 18:44
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-3	-$1	18¢	$-1	+$0	05-04 08:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will lennart kahl score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	25	$5.0K	2,750	2,273	+477	No	+$15	06-29 23:33
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 goals ismael saibari gte1	4	$3.7K	1,841	1,841	+0	No	+$17	07-09 21:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	37	$2.3K	1,826	1,826	+0	Yes	+$97	06-16 00:24
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	10	$2.2K	2,202	179	+2,023	No	+$13	06-02 10:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	18	$2.1K	1,610	1,055	+555	No	+$57	01-25 17:48
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	6	$1.8K	1,841	0	+1,841	Yes	+$30	10-26 23:02
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	33	$1.5K	1,052	1,052	+0	No	+$2	01-29 07:25
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	12	$1.4K	1,670	0	+1,670	Yes	-$1,433	02-17 00:10
world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	23	$1.4K	916	916	+0	No	-$3	06-23 09:29
will germany strike iran by march 31	7	$1.0K	580	580	+0	No	+$44	03-04 16:49
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	3	$946	751	230	+521	No	+$21	03-01 14:12
israel strikes iran by january 23 2026	7	$801	422	422	+0	No	+$16	01-24 14:39
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$796	773	60	+713	No	+$14	04-30 20:11
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	5	$692	405	338	+68	No	+$9	03-04 19:35
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	7	$652	412	282	+130	No	+$24	04-12 14:04
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	16	$602	496	358	+138	No	+$3	01-31 11:47
Iran leadership change by May 31?	12	$573	337	337	+0	No	+$8	05-17 13:47
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	4	$545	337	337	+0	No	-$2	04-22 09:21
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$522	270	270	+0	No	+$14	05-17 10:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	23	$519	371	296	+75	No	+$54	05-07 19:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	23	$494	845	845	+0	No	-$12	05-27 00:37
internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	11	$471	324	264	+60	No	+$35	04-16 17:21
world cup highest scoring match record broken 20260608191032772	10	$470	250	250	+0	No	+$1	06-17 17:10
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$454	240	240	+0	Yes	-$11	02-28 09:23
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	12	$440	281	281	+0	No	+$60	03-28 08:20
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	12	$430	615	615	+0	Yes	-$4	04-03 15:44
will iran strike cyprus in march	13	$421	325	325	-0	No	+$50	03-11 21:10
uel stu3 yob1 2026 01 29 stu3	9	$418	405	49	+355	Yes	-$11	01-29 21:51
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?	4	$410	225	225	+0	No	+$10	04-15 12:07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	6	$399	340	343	-3	open	—	10-15 07:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 23:02:15	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,763	100¢	$1,761	0xac539d…
10-26 22:21:09	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x204eca…
10-26 19:50:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x43ac24…
10-26 17:11:17	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0xa485a5…
10-26 17:11:15	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$0	0x2726a3…
10-26 16:06:36	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xb4c41e…
10-26 12:58:45	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x44f48f…
10-26 08:05:35	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	No	BUY	47	46¢	$22	0x311a58…
10-25 22:13:03	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	130	87¢	$113	0x9b4304…
10-25 21:44:26	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xf92a9d…
10-25 21:23:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	38	74¢	$28	0x6ee0bf…
10-25 21:12:53	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	42	1¢	$1	0x0f521d…
10-25 20:17:02	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	25	62¢	$16	0x378931…
10-25 20:14:05	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	25	62¢	$16	0x2d69c9…
10-25 19:47:42	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x965dbf…
10-25 19:47:02	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	40	59¢	$24	0x51b11c…
10-25 18:30:39	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	No	BUY	45	46¢	$21	0x11cd0c…
10-25 16:25:03	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	18	15¢	$3	0x89f049…
10-25 14:55:35	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x8ab8bc…
10-25 13:10:35	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	No	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0x505b64…
10-25 12:50:47	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	No	SELL	116	64¢	$74	0x6b6469…
10-24 16:32:57	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	No	SELL	16	64¢	$10	0x51b31f…
10-23 19:25:42	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x307d14…
10-23 19:18:32	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x2a4adf…
10-23 19:08:08	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x6fb3e0…
10-23 19:07:48	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x99e25c…
10-23 11:07:57	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	SELL	9	72¢	$7	0x95ac89…
10-23 11:04:41	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	SELL	16	72¢	$11	0x464d42…
10-23 11:03:14	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0xca376b…
10-23 10:59:11	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0xd5ba19…
10-23 09:01:51	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x786492…
10-21 22:26:24	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	280	18¢	$50	0xd13822…
10-21 17:49:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0xebfe6f…
10-20 19:51:50	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-20?	No	SELL	21	42¢	$9	0x8ecd18…
10-20 19:49:20	Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)	AS Roma	SELL	9	75¢	$7	0xee54fc…
10-20 19:14:59	Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)	AS Roma	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x20379f…
10-20 19:02:44	AS Roma vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava: AS Roma 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x0eb55c…
10-20 18:58:17	AS Roma vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x816b73…
10-20 18:57:54	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-20?	No	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x255aa7…
10-18 20:23:51	Juventus FC vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x71c5ce…
10-18 00:58:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc858c8…
10-18 00:41:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 00:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x814554…
10-17 12:37:26	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x82bc4d…
10-17 12:37:05	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x59ff43…
10-15 14:38:59	Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?	No	BUY	30	73¢	$22	0xe13a67…
10-15 07:54:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	60	83¢	$50	0x48cceb…
10-14 12:51:54	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	No	BUY	110	45¢	$50	0xf62bec…
10-14 12:49:51	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	No	BUY	55	49¢	$27	0x4cca63…
10-14 09:57:46	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	No	BUY	97	72¢	$70	0xdff230…
10-13 20:39:52	Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)	FC Barcelona	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x5e36f5…
10-13 20:28:12	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	SELL	18	69¢	$12	0x2c7981…
10-13 19:27:24	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	1	63¢	$0	0xfe4e66…
10-13 19:27:24	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	7	63¢	$5	0xf89316…
10-13 19:09:09	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0xe24363…
10-13 19:06:52	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0xca15fc…
10-13 19:03:18	Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	FC Barcelona	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x91ff7b…
10-13 19:01:58	FC Barcelona leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x0b1e49…
10-13 19:01:27	Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	FC Barcelona	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x35d853…
10-13 19:01:24	Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	FC Barcelona	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xf9c599…
10-13 19:01:22	Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	FC Barcelona	BUY	16	53¢	$8	0xbc5831…
10-13 18:57:40	Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)	FC Barcelona	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0xd977c4…
10-12 18:44:02	Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31?	No	BUY	26	41¢	$11	0xb14f53…
10-12 18:22:51	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	21	79¢	$17	0xce6af2…
10-12 18:10:53	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	14	75¢	$11	0x095a01…
10-12 16:23:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	60	82¢	$49	0xefeda3…
10-12 01:34:33	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	42	56¢	$24	0xf38920…
10-11 21:13:08	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0xe58003…
10-11 21:02:59	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	18	56¢	$10	0x97e05a…
10-11 21:01:08	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0xee12e1…
10-11 20:49:52	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0x7670b3…
10-11 20:49:35	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xb1c947…
10-11 20:34:52	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0x98a670…
10-11 17:56:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0x983a17…
10-11 15:18:25	Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31?	No	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x32dc69…
10-10 13:28:49	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	18	60¢	$11	0x97c947…
10-10 13:27:03	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0xd58738…
09-26 17:29:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xebd345…
09-26 17:25:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 17:25 UTC	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xc13b59…
09-24 19:19:26	Will Netherlands win on 2026-09-24?	No	SELL	25	58¢	$14	0x2ef07b…
09-24 18:42:41	Will Netherlands win on 2026-09-24?	No	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0xb1dcd8…
09-24 18:29:59	Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xa28d8c…
09-21 11:27:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	53	20¢	$11	0x14b37a…
09-21 11:26:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	97	20¢	$19	0x1e4bc3…
09-19 16:32:39	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-19?	No	BUY	17	64¢	$11	0x89ce4c…
09-19 16:31:26	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-19?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x55479b…
09-15 16:09:18	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	35	71¢	$25	0x67b4e5…
09-15 15:49:24	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	30	72¢	$22	0x4bbc3e…
09-15 15:46:39	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	14	72¢	$10	0xe9e90e…
09-15 15:38:48	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	45	73¢	$33	0x6e9f20…
09-12 13:40:40	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-09-12?	No	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x66cc8c…
09-09 16:58:03	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-09-09?	Yes	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x462220…
09-08 17:48:24	AEK vs. LASK Linz: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xf530f3…
09-03 16:36:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	120	85¢	$102	0xd30b5c…
09-01 20:26:15	Hamburg-Eimsbütteler BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xd7acf8…
08-31 18:56:01	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?	No	SELL	15	34¢	$5	0xf14bb2…
08-31 18:41:54	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x1f97ad…
08-31 18:36:10	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x016691…
08-30 19:38:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	68	76¢	$51	0x2516e2…
08-28 18:43:40	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-08-28?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x94275a…
08-28 14:15:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	35	57¢	$20	0xfc2b6d…