Wee-Solvency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$56

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

61.1%

Resolved

419

Trades

910

lifetime

Volume

$2.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-23

last 05-21 07:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Crypto

47% 69% +$35

Other

40% 44% -$85

Politics

11% 50% +$11

Tech

2% 80% -$16

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-21).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+17	$2	2¢	$0	-$2	05-11 18:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nvda close above 180 on february 3 2026	5	$71	79	9	+70	Yes	-$9	02-03 21:00
russia x ukraine prisoner exchange by february 28 2026	2	$31	22	22	+0	Yes	+$11	02-04 18:25
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	4	$27	19	19	+0	Yes	+$1	04-02 21:37
aapl up or down on february 5 2026	10	$24	26	26	+0	Down	+$2	02-05 20:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 13:00 UTC	2	$23	25	0	+25	Up	-$3	02-03 13:14
aapl up or down on february 18 2026	2	$23	13	13	+0	Up	+$3	02-18 20:56
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 781	3	$23	358	358	+0	No	-$17	02-19 19:23
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$22	13	13	+0	No	+$2	01-28 07:34
spx opens up or down on april 10 2026	2	$22	12	12	+0	Up	+$2	04-10 13:30
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	4	$21	69	69	+0	Yes	-$19	02-20 19:37
will russia strike kyiv on february 16 2026	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	02-16 21:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 13:15 UTC	4	$20	26	0	+26	Up	-$20	02-03 13:28
will russia strike kyiv on february 7 2026	4	$18	28	12	+15	No	-$10	02-06 22:45
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$17	15	15	+0	Yes	-$3	05-16 22:34
will russia capture all of huliaipole by february 28	6	$15	17	17	+0	No	-$1	02-16 20:37
will epstein data set 13 be released by february 28	4	$15	21	21	+0	No	-$1	02-10 11:01
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 8	3	$15	20	10	+10	Yes	+$3	02-03 08:29
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	4	$15	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	02-22 20:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 16:15 UTC	2	$15	19	0	+19	Down	+$4	02-03 16:26
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-21 18:45 UTC	6	$14	9	7	+2	Down	-$2	02-21 19:00
will russia enter toretske by february 28	2	$14	11	11	+0	Yes	+$4	02-03 12:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 22:25 UTC	5	$14	13	3	+10	Up	+$0	02-13 22:29
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 15	3	$14	16	4	+12	Yes	+$1	02-13 22:22
will russia capture sofiivka by february 28	2	$14	38	38	+0	No	-$6	02-15 14:00
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$13	8	8	+0	Yes	+$3	04-27 06:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 18:00 UTC	1	$13	13	0	+13	Down	+$0	02-03 18:14
will russia strike kyiv on february 17 2026	3	$13	14	6	+8	No	-$1	02-17 08:35
will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	5	$13	12	12	+0	No	+$1	04-06 06:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 18:15 UTC	3	$12	12	2	+10	Up	+$0	02-15 18:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 13:45 UTC	3	$12	90	0	+90	Up	+$78	02-03 13:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 07:52:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$6	0x78699e…
05-16 22:53:24	Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x73a093…
05-16 22:47:39	Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xae02f6…
05-16 22:34:21	Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	47¢	$7	0xbc58e2…
05-15 18:07:05	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x2fae00…
05-15 18:06:45	Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x38b671…
05-12 20:42:54	Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x631901…
05-12 20:41:37	Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x468f7a…
05-12 20:39:57	Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xd4dd32…
05-12 20:39:34	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xfef12b…
05-11 19:15:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x691562…
05-11 19:10:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x1b89a8…
05-11 18:54:19	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x16bc4c…
05-11 18:49:39	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xb25619…
05-11 08:02:06	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	SELL	18	6¢	$1	0x04dd72…
05-05 07:44:04	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x980fa1…
05-04 17:12:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x64e2b2…
05-04 10:59:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xc0e5b2…
04-29 18:00:10	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xb84e19…
04-27 20:10:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xd99d81…
04-27 20:08:44	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xc94df5…
04-27 20:07:18	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on April 27?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xbc6614…
04-27 17:18:10	Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xcbe559…
04-27 17:10:12	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x7bb81f…
04-27 17:04:38	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x3bcaf4…
04-27 17:01:32	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xd5ad98…
04-27 17:00:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xd267fd…
04-27 06:43:28	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x4eb512…
04-26 08:35:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0xaaca25…
04-24 14:29:40	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 24?	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x2e6f77…
04-22 07:52:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xc8107c…
04-22 06:07:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	7¢	$1	0xc2d830…
04-21 18:26:04	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xd23643…
04-21 10:40:28	spx up or down on april 21 2026	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xea4efc…
04-21 06:12:28	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	Yes	SELL	32	1¢	$0	0xde75a6…
04-20 19:55:46	nvda up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xf979a3…
04-20 19:54:42	nvda up or down on april 20 2026	Up	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0x997693…
04-20 19:39:58	nvda up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x5f64d3…
04-20 19:37:22	nvda up or down on april 20 2026	Up	SELL	7	25¢	$2	0xc003c4…
04-20 18:26:04	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x3bec09…
04-20 14:38:02	nvda up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x944e04…
04-20 07:44:42	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x1c3d44…
04-19 06:53:06	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0x298666…
04-18 17:08:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0x66d33d…
04-18 07:30:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xab0b86…
04-17 14:02:04	spx opens up or down on april 17 2026	Up	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x768312…
04-17 08:43:28	spx opens up or down on april 17 2026	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xbc5514…
04-16 19:29:10	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0xf295be…
04-16 19:26:18	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x1042ad…
04-16 18:50:00	spx opens up or down on april 16 2026	Up	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x317866…
04-16 09:00:22	spx opens up or down on april 16 2026	Up	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0xe0d7ea…
04-16 06:12:36	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0xc4ff6d…
04-15 08:41:36	spx opens up or down on april 15 2026	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xbe6356…
04-15 08:15:16	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xdb13d1…
04-15 06:15:16	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x5c0df7…
04-15 06:13:48	russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 17	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6b5f6f…
04-15 06:13:18	russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 17	Yes	SELL	6	50¢	$3	0xf3bfc9…
04-15 01:56:02	russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 10 578	Yes	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0x332b52…
04-14 19:29:10	russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 17	Yes	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xbbfc05…
04-14 13:04:27	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	No	SELL	6	99¢	$5	0xe335e0…
04-14 12:14:01	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x1862c0…
04-13 10:44:41	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xa95754…
04-12 19:04:51	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0x4c5b14…
04-11 18:39:45	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xea90c9…
04-10 17:37:35	aapl above 260 on april 10 2026	Yes	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xd2d94a…
04-10 17:26:17	aapl above 260 on april 10 2026	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xd08f73…
04-10 15:40:55	aapl above 260 on april 10 2026	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x7b2592…
04-10 13:30:35	spx opens up or down on april 10 2026	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xbd9636…
04-10 12:52:03	spx opens up or down on april 10 2026	Up	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x627e3f…
04-10 12:49:55	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 6 12	No	SELL	9	25¢	$2	0xf8e400…
04-09 19:16:39	will turnout in the 2025 honduran general election be between 55 and 60	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x12ca3e…
04-09 19:08:41	aapl up or down on april 9 2026	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x200356…
04-09 18:55:41	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-09 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xf7bed1…
04-09 18:54:15	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-09 18:45 UTC	Down	SELL	3	44¢	$1	0xeb25d5…
04-09 18:53:53	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-09 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x20d2e8…
04-09 18:52:35	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-09 18:45 UTC	Up	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xd2ad7f…
04-09 18:51:59	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-09 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x2a1fb9…
04-09 18:51:51	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-09 18:45 UTC	Down	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x427244…
04-09 18:48:55	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-09 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x7d3a9f…
04-09 18:39:53	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 18:35 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0a8930…
04-09 18:38:43	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 18:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x46a85a…
04-09 18:35:09	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 18:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x675179…
04-09 07:09:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x0f8ea2…
04-09 07:07:47	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 07:05 UTC	Down	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x297e7c…
04-09 07:07:23	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x4f94dd…
04-09 07:05:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 07:00 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x601369…
04-09 07:04:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xd41b77…
04-09 07:02:25	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x4e4f6f…
04-09 07:01:45	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 07:00 UTC	Down	SELL	9	17¢	$2	0x5c0696…
04-09 07:01:25	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xd0ef2b…
04-08 11:28:21	russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 10 578	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xc428ec…
04-07 18:26:47	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 18:25 UTC	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x018037…
04-07 18:24:55	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 18:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x56efc5…
04-06 18:48:23	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x1f2cda…
04-06 18:45:11	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 18:40 UTC	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xe6d049…
04-06 18:44:47	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 18:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xecea88…
04-06 18:43:17	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 18:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x43a91b…
04-06 17:59:59	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 17:55 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf91ceb…
04-06 17:59:21	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 17:55 UTC	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x7badda…
04-06 17:58:29	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 6 12	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x6999d5…