Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

56.8%

Resolved

170

Trades

183

lifetime

Volume

$264

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-07-21

last 10-30 22:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Other

84% 59% +$21

Politics

13% 53% +$8

Tech

3% 50% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+4	$2	4¢	$0	-$2	07-26 02:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	2	$4	10	+10	No	-$1	08-15 12:00
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	09-19 07:13
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-11 19:59
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 23, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-17 12:11
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-03 04:29
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention?	1	$2	7	+7	Yes	-$2	09-09 18:08
spx up or down on september 16 2026	1	$2	3	+3	Down	-$2	09-16 07:51
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	09-11 03:42
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	Yes	+$5	09-22 06:35
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	09-12 15:09
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of September 7 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-07 22:29
will warsh say pandemic during september press conference 20260909	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-15 23:51
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	09-16 15:52
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	Yes	+$5	09-12 04:35
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-11 11:56
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	Yes	+$7	09-23 15:18
laptop airdrop by september 9	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$0	09-08 21:30
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-23 07:18
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-19 22:39
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	-$2	07-23 01:59
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	09-15 15:47
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	09-18 22:19
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	08-05 16:46
Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	08-05 00:38
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	+$4	08-15 20:16
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-02 11:59
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on August 31, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-20 08:11
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-04 08:32
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	08-11 19:05
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	Yes	+$5	08-08 08:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 22:59:21	CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 92% to 93.5%?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x17cd6c…
10-30 14:53:58	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xcbad0e…
10-30 05:00:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xcb7b47…
10-29 20:50:15	Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x953f18…
10-29 12:32:56	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xb3d2cd…
10-29 04:21:04	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xc6dfdd…
10-28 20:20:10	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x568cc3…
10-28 12:06:01	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x2d74b4…
10-28 04:03:05	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x1925a3…
10-27 20:02:36	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x4e7308…
10-27 12:02:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xd789dc…
10-27 04:02:05	Will Google (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x21d41f…
10-25 03:35:35	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x550a23…
10-24 15:46:12	Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x5a3ea0…
10-24 07:36:26	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x69ea4f…
10-23 23:34:24	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xff9fe4…
10-23 15:33:27	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x12f110…
10-23 07:05:39	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x69cf4d…
10-23 07:05:33	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xa874ac…
10-22 23:05:29	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xde8586…
10-22 14:08:51	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x86d056…
10-22 06:08:35	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x350d0b…
10-21 21:41:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x6c8c35…
10-21 13:38:11	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x18783b…
10-21 05:37:45	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x1c6f46…
10-20 21:36:11	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa24bcf…
10-20 13:19:39	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x7f2f8e…
10-20 05:19:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xf03639…
10-18 21:13:33	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xb12acb…
10-18 21:11:33	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x2df2bc…
10-18 13:10:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x8313ac…
10-18 12:23:45	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x221f3d…
10-18 04:01:35	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd43633…
10-17 19:50:38	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xbfc19b…
10-17 11:47:08	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xa04b5a…
10-17 02:34:32	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xb2efb4…
10-16 14:33:18	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xad5783…
10-16 06:32:37	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xbb86c0…
10-15 22:30:15	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xdb37a5…
10-15 14:08:14	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xede27b…
10-15 06:02:38	will the tesla roadsters 0 60 time be less than 1 second	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x7fb149…
10-14 22:02:03	will lam research lrcx q1 total revenue be above 20261008120025000 8pt5b	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xb3fea2…
10-14 13:45:12	will xagusd dip to 55 by october 12 2026	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x56e485…
10-14 05:43:20	will mu reach 960 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x58d6b8…
10-13 21:35:30	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x1e465b…
10-13 13:33:46	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xcf10d0…
10-13 05:32:43	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x42ac8b…
10-12 21:32:38	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x567568…
10-12 13:32:35	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 12?	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x600eef…
10-11 17:32:19	Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xc74280…
10-11 09:12:30	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x2c14e3…
10-11 01:06:52	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xdd6cc0…
10-10 17:03:39	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xbb0c04…
10-10 06:58:01	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x3305c0…
10-09 10:50:18	Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x475383…
10-09 02:50:02	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x970120…
10-08 14:48:57	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xc54319…
10-08 06:24:34	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $70 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x2f48bf…
10-07 22:22:36	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x798c62…
10-07 14:19:01	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x3b47c2…
10-07 04:28:26	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xf525d5…
10-06 20:25:54	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x2438df…
10-06 12:24:10	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x23aef6…
10-06 04:23:43	Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xdc3e9d…
10-06 04:19:37	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xde1056…
10-05 19:59:35	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x126722…
10-05 11:58:55	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe505db…
10-05 02:56:55	will spy dip to 765 by october 5 2026	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x6f8f46…
10-04 18:25:44	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x27d091…
10-04 10:07:11	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x5ce1e9…
10-04 01:14:02	Will OpenRouter process between 160T and 165T tokens the week of September 28?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x3b6710…
10-03 16:12:38	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xb9b2c5…
10-03 07:12:15	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x257f87…
10-02 21:58:05	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xfc6767…
10-02 13:56:00	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xceb783…
10-02 05:55:17	will msft reach 517 50 by september 28 2026 from october 1	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x329195…
10-01 18:55:38	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x937ed4…
10-01 10:52:08	spx up or down on october 1 2026	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xfa5c6b…
10-01 10:50:21	spy up or down on october 1 2026	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xe4ae3b…
10-01 10:47:51	Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x8c74df…
10-01 02:47:12	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x04aae6…
09-30 18:45:51	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x1584b3…
09-30 10:11:29	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xa66467…
09-30 02:11:14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xf849ad…
09-29 17:25:18	will pltr reach 189 by september 28 2026 from september 29	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x360659…
09-29 09:25:08	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x745629…
09-29 01:12:06	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xc0c915…
09-28 16:47:32	Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xb9fb79…
09-27 20:46:06	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xa2d1e6…
09-27 12:01:14	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x755a7f…
09-27 02:46:14	will msft dip to 510 in september 2026 from september 25	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x5564a4…
09-26 13:43:27	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x9ccd90…
09-26 13:43:21	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9b4eb3…
09-26 05:42:45	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x277a29…
09-25 21:10:30	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in September?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x7a29c4…
09-24 11:20:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x9b7876…
09-23 15:18:43	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x778eef…
09-23 07:18:01	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xfb9066…
09-22 06:35:58	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xeeb9b5…
09-19 07:13:01	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xd36811…