Subtle-Commotion — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$6

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

35.4%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

84 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$698

$698 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$34

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-05 22:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 41% $-6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	+21	$10	99¢	$21	+$11	05-05 22:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	+20	$10	56¢	$11	+$1	05-05 22:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	+23	$10	4¢	$1	$-9	05-05 22:45
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	+22	$10	1¢	$0	$-10	05-05 22:45
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	+21	$10	0¢	$0	$-10	05-05 22:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 22:45:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xaeb94b…
05-05 22:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xd36d46…
05-05 22:15:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x9551a5…
05-05 22:10:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xe41b2e…
05-05 22:00:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xe63cdd…
05-05 21:45:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	19	40¢	$8	0xc8cac4…
05-05 21:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x33ee41…
05-05 21:45:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xdb5f38…
05-05 21:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x0658cb…
05-05 21:30:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x2c6932…
05-05 21:15:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xe0805f…
05-05 21:15:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x3aefb6…
05-05 21:00:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xc0b9b8…
05-05 20:45:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x3841fb…
05-05 20:30:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x469170…
05-05 20:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x3bf80e…
05-05 20:20:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x9148ff…
05-05 19:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x124191…
05-05 19:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xa22e38…
05-05 19:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x392fd1…
05-05 18:43:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x6f0ca5…
05-05 18:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xa2c53a…
05-05 18:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xe8f665…
05-05 18:15:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xcd4803…
05-05 17:02:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xf461ba…
05-05 17:02:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb13a30…
05-05 15:42:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xff13ef…
05-05 15:42:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x62f31d…
05-05 15:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x005487…
05-05 14:22:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x09e7e8…
05-05 13:45:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x1d4db0…
05-05 13:15:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x9b18e3…
05-05 12:51:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	12	58¢	$7	0x79302b…
05-05 12:45:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x737c60…
05-05 11:31:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xb846dc…
05-05 11:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x427315…
05-05 10:45:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x0cc299…
05-05 10:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x35993b…
05-05 10:05:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	50¢	$10	0xa55b79…
05-05 09:15:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xab54ed…
05-05 09:15:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xf5ce14…
05-05 08:15:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xa9f3ee…
05-05 08:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	23	41¢	$9	0xf4cb81…
05-05 07:46:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	11	32¢	$4	0x47cd0e…
05-05 07:46:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0xe98f87…
05-05 07:45:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x318737…
05-05 07:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x72461a…
05-05 07:15:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	22	42¢	$9	0x5ff48f…
05-05 07:15:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	13	47¢	$6	0xbac900…
05-05 07:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xdabf9e…
05-05 07:15:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	50¢	$7	0xe582bf…
05-05 06:30:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x39955f…
05-05 06:15:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x8ee5a9…
05-05 06:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x8ae502…
05-05 05:45:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x2ce68f…
05-05 05:15:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	6	50¢	$3	0xba8f53…
05-05 05:15:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x5d8796…
05-05 05:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xbb6edb…
05-05 04:30:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x4ebe6c…
05-05 04:30:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb95128…
05-05 04:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x314c5c…
05-05 03:45:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xc38439…
05-05 03:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xf3f86d…
05-05 03:30:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x0a37bd…
05-05 03:15:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	21	41¢	$9	0xdec84c…
05-05 03:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x95ae3f…
05-05 03:15:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xa83cc5…
05-05 03:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x1c790b…
05-05 02:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x0fc6e5…
05-05 02:30:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x47c778…
05-05 02:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb3db6b…
05-05 02:24:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x5aba93…
05-05 01:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	23	40¢	$9	0x265c64…
05-05 01:30:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	15	40¢	$6	0xbd80f6…
05-05 01:15:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x20a7f0…
05-05 01:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x3685df…
05-05 00:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xfe1580…
05-05 00:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x7072be…
05-05 00:00:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xa19cfc…
05-04 23:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x7d3402…
05-04 23:45:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xcdb14d…
05-04 23:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x97acc2…
05-04 23:30:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0xce118c…
05-04 20:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0x05aec5…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	64	$14.3K	557	05-05 22:45
Prime-Analogue 0xa4a3…155f	58	$650	69	05-05 22:45
Colorless-Validate 0xdc34…44c5	55	$585	67	05-05 22:45
Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc	51	$7.51K	343	05-05 22:55
Minty-Complicity 0xee55…7b04	51	$1.82K	205	05-05 22:55
Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4	48	$8.38K	220	05-05 22:55
Exalted-Mattress 0xa8cc…41a9	48	$501	160	05-05 22:45
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	46	$570	148	05-05 22:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	2	$20	43	0	+43	open	—	05-05 19:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	2	$19	20	20	+0	Up	$-1	05-05 00:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	2	$19	22	22	+0	open	—	05-05 07:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	2	$19	20	20	+0	Down	$-1	05-05 04:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	2	$19	21	21	+0	Up	$-1	05-05 03:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	2	$18	23	19	+4	open	—	05-05 21:45
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	3	$14	24	12	+12	open	—	05-05 07:46
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	2	$13	13	13	+0	open	—	05-05 07:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	2	$12	22	5	+17	open	—	05-05 21:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	2	$12	22	5	+17	open	—	05-05 09:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	1	$10	23	0	+23	Up	+$13	05-05 03:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	1	$10	21	0	+21	Down	$-10	05-05 02:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	05-05 19:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	05-05 20:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	05-05 08:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Up	+$10	05-05 02:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	05-05 22:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	1	$10	25	0	+25	Up	+$15	05-05 02:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	1	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	05-05 18:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	05-05 20:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	05-05 14:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	05-05 15:17
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	1	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	05-05 22:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	1	$10	28	0	+28	open	—	05-05 18:43
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	1	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	05-05 10:45
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	1	$10	22	0	+22	open	—	05-05 18:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	05-05 11:31
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	1	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	05-05 22:00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	1	$10	22	0	+22	open	—	05-05 22:45
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	1	$10	23	0	+23	Up	+$13	05-05 01:15