International-Eggnog — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.35K

Unrealized P&L

-$103

Hit rate

57.4%

Resolved

135

Trades

283

lifetime

Volume

$10.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

$16

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 21:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 88 days

Categories

Politics

52% 42% -$739

Other

40% 43% -$551

Crypto

6% 71% -$3

Pop-Culture

2% 0% -$58

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	No		+76	$10	21¢	$16	+$6	10-26 23:24
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes		+243	$109	0¢	$0	-$109	10-23 19:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$786	569	569	+0	No	+$98	10-10 19:29
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	4	$694	1,142	0	+1,142	No	-$694	09-20 08:28
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	7	$505	911	0	+911	Yes	-$505	09-21 07:02
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	5	$488	334	334	+0	open	—	10-26 08:01
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	2	$461	655	0	+655	Yes	+$194	09-08 22:49
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	2	$426	228	228	+0	Yes	+$26	09-23 04:01
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?	4	$413	245	245	+0	Yes	+$73	09-25 19:14
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 15	4	$372	163	259	-96	No	-$24	01-14 09:12
Will the Bank of Russia announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?	2	$365	281	281	+0	open	—	10-23 10:37
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	7	$363	233	178	+55	No	+$26	01-29 20:31
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	3	$313	302	159	+143	No	-$87	10-23 10:39
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	4	$264	167	167	+0	Yes	+$64	10-25 17:37
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$248	700	217	+483	Yes	+$330	10-25 20:36
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026?	4	$229	124	124	+0	Yes	+$14	09-14 14:52
Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	6	$210	348	0	+348	No	-$210	10-27 21:30
us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	2	$210	244	244	+0	open	—	10-16 07:41
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	3	$202	485	485	+0	No	-$58	09-24 15:20
russia strike on kyiv municipality by january 19	2	$191	108	108	+0	Yes	-$15	01-15 09:03
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	2	$177	119	119	+0	open	—	10-23 19:12
will trump shake hands with volodymyr zelenskyy at the world economic forum	2	$157	160	0	+160	Yes	+$3	01-22 15:12
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	2	$133	73	73	+0	Yes	+$13	03-10 20:08
will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 239	3	$129	66	66	+0	Yes	+$2	02-17 12:38
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by february 28	2	$112	190	0	+190	Yes	-$112	02-04 19:32
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	2	$109	243	0	+243	open	—	10-23 19:12
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	5	$109	240	240	+0	No	-$91	09-21 08:09
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$107	86	86	+0	No	+$7	03-23 08:01
Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	3	$101	320	0	+320	Yes	-$101	10-12 21:12
cs2 gls1 meiano 2026 08 04	6	$98	59	59	+0	Galorys	+$18	08-04 22:36
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 26, 2026?	6	$94	64	64	+0	No	+$34	08-28 21:01
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	3	$92	80	80	+0	No	+$32	09-12 21:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 21:30:54	Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xbcb9cf…
10-26 23:24:57	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	No	BUY	76	13¢	$10	0x5683b3…
10-26 11:25:57	Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	79	72¢	$57	0x9cbc0c…
10-26 08:01:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	133	74¢	$99	0x44f85d…
10-26 07:56:23	Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	96	71¢	$68	0x859796…
10-26 07:22:14	Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x3a59c1…
10-26 07:21:56	Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x5f3aaa…
10-26 07:19:51	Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0x41dd59…
10-26 07:09:59	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xd13edb…
10-25 20:36:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	72	32¢	$23	0x1c6a6c…
10-25 20:36:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	411	31¢	$127	0x44458b…
10-25 20:35:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	201	73¢	$147	0x24ea8b…
10-25 17:38:05	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	138	58¢	$80	0x061709…
10-25 17:37:08	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	100¢	$83	0x830b65…
10-23 19:12:29	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	196	45¢	$88	0x27d089…
10-23 19:12:15	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	74¢	$88	0x71b6a2…
10-23 19:12:06	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	45¢	$21	0x6a533c…
10-23 14:34:35	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	60	28¢	$17	0x5e57e8…
10-23 14:34:35	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	16	28¢	$5	0x490efe…
10-23 14:34:33	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x1d2793…
10-23 14:32:57	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x7db879…
10-23 14:30:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	60	71¢	$43	0xdd0765…
10-23 11:24:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x6bccb9…
10-23 10:39:26	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x6eba51…
10-23 10:37:53	Will the Bank of Russia announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	281	65¢	$183	0x8c1aa1…
10-23 10:36:35	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	159	71¢	$113	0x710b96…
10-23 10:36:15	Will the Bank of Russia announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	281	65¢	$182	0xe071d2…
10-23 09:30:09	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	96¢	$80	0xbe49a8…
10-22 22:56:17	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x80f4b1…
10-22 22:51:18	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x8c2d87…
10-22 15:29:12	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	217	22¢	$48	0xdad209…
10-17 22:17:26	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	119	74¢	$88	0xb7d23d…
10-17 22:14:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	217	23¢	$50	0x407dd8…
10-16 07:41:09	us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	No	SELL	244	45¢	$110	0x113e43…
10-13 08:46:08	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x1cacbe…
10-12 22:39:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0x7ae3d4…
10-12 21:12:56	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	240	32¢	$77	0x3c97d3…
10-12 21:12:27	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x396491…
10-12 21:11:56	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x183fc7…
10-11 10:03:09	Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 15?	No	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0x529c28…
10-10 19:29:01	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	389	88¢	$343	0x1e02d6…
10-10 19:28:51	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x66e65d…
10-03 23:47:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	215	65¢	$139	0x54c48f…
09-27 08:01:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0xef248c…
09-25 19:14:08	Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?	Yes	SELL	245	99¢	$243	0x2f65d9…
09-24 15:20:47	Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?	Yes	BUY	95	72¢	$69	0x2ca76d…
09-24 15:20:33	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Yes	SELL	485	15¢	$72	0xa4409e…
09-24 15:18:08	Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?	Yes	BUY	141	68¢	$96	0x57bf31…
09-24 15:17:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	180	55¢	$99	0x6206b4…
09-24 15:13:03	Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xe6845f…
09-24 12:17:03	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	448	27¢	$120	0xe74cea…
09-24 12:16:48	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x2be77d…
09-23 22:39:04	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	180	58¢	$105	0xd73b32…
09-23 04:01:47	Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	228	99¢	$226	0xbcfe1c…
09-22 20:38:24	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x119b43…
09-21 08:09:14	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	137	1¢	$2	0x1992c7…
09-21 08:09:08	Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	552	1¢	$6	0x3c159e…
09-21 08:08:53	Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	228	88¢	$200	0xf0ea34…
09-21 08:08:47	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	103	7¢	$7	0x3b0b44…
09-21 07:02:36	Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	BUY	129	77¢	$100	0xe296f6…
09-21 05:16:34	Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x4ebbd7…
09-21 05:16:25	Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	BUY	138	72¢	$100	0xceec81…
09-20 18:39:50	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the fourth-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	561	1¢	$7	0x27379c…
09-20 18:26:37	Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x04c27b…
09-20 18:25:54	Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	246	4¢	$10	0x182587…
09-20 18:25:40	Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	306	3¢	$10	0x203081…
09-20 17:19:13	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	40	42¢	$17	0x2df95f…
09-20 17:19:13	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	80	42¢	$33	0x08b1fb…
09-20 17:15:55	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	120	42¢	$50	0x382c1a…
09-20 11:47:09	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the fourth-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	561	2¢	$10	0x7f3b67…
09-20 09:11:13	Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	BUY	147	34¢	$50	0xabd595…
09-20 08:28:29	Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x031643…
09-20 07:40:22	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x9e48fd…
09-19 13:29:38	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	103	7¢	$7	0x532527…
09-19 11:55:45	Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	119	62¢	$74	0xab3e80…
09-19 11:55:14	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	57	7¢	$4	0x19c449…
09-19 11:54:15	Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	484	62¢	$300	0xd64868…
09-19 11:52:29	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x261f17…
09-19 11:52:20	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	114	7¢	$8	0xd61b62…
09-19 11:45:09	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x01d6b4…
09-19 11:44:12	Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0x4f453e…
09-19 11:42:27	Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	508	59¢	$300	0xf8259c…
09-19 11:38:42	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	285	9¢	$26	0x820d1a…
09-19 11:27:02	Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0x7d8b4c…
09-14 22:47:24	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x03d106…
09-14 22:45:57	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x1246b1…
09-14 22:43:40	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	109	27¢	$30	0x39c34a…
09-14 14:52:54	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	124	98¢	$121	0xeeb485…
09-14 04:57:24	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xe8684d…
09-13 21:25:52	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	88¢	$90	0x14d38d…
09-13 21:25:34	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x633e59…
09-12 21:05:24	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	No	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0xb6cf35…
09-11 14:37:57	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	No	SELL	40	70¢	$28	0x3a6966…
09-10 07:52:04	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 10, 2026?	No	SELL	51	0¢	$0	0x906b51…
09-09 10:38:16	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	No	BUY	80	37¢	$30	0xcf59ef…
09-09 05:27:19	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 9, 2026?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xe754db…
09-08 22:49:36	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	653	70¢	$460	0x06caa6…
09-08 21:39:16	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0xf00fd7…
09-08 21:27:03	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x4c800e…
09-08 20:56:39	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xa3c16b…