Steel-Facility — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$32

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 05-25 09:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

50% 33% $-37

Other

41% — —

Crypto

7% 100% +$6

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	3	$162	88	88	+0	open	—	05-01 06:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	4	$103	54	54	+0	open	—	05-09 22:27
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	3	$94	2,839	0	+2,839	open	—	05-25 09:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	4	$76	44	44	+0	Up	+$6	05-06 13:34
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$69	50	50	+0	open	—	04-30 06:05
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$69	40	40	+0	open	—	05-15 06:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$67	41	41	+0	open	—	05-25 06:36
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$63	40	40	+0	open	—	05-06 13:20
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$60	35	35	+0	No	+$6	05-06 15:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$58	36	36	+0	open	—	05-13 14:44
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	2	$53	46	46	+0	open	—	05-25 06:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$47	28	28	+0	open	—	04-24 04:58
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$45	25	25	+0	open	—	04-22 04:48
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	2	$43	118	118	+0	open	—	05-25 09:28
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$40	40	40	+0	open	—	04-24 14:48
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	2	$33	187	0	+187	Yes	$-33	04-24 15:18
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$27	20	20	+0	open	—	04-24 14:50
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$26	214	0	+214	open	—	05-11 09:59
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?	1	$20	69	0	+69	open	—	04-21 06:01
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	1	$10	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	$-10	05-08 13:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	1	$5	125	0	+125	open	—	05-01 13:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	05-01 13:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-25 09:28:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$10	0x343a69…
05-25 09:28:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	SELL	118	8¢	$10	0xce02c3…
05-25 06:36:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	2,185	3¢	$59	0xe99ee1…
05-25 06:36:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	41	75¢	$30	0xbd3d9b…
05-25 06:36:01	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	No	SELL	46	62¢	$28	0x7b8e91…
05-24 21:57:23	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	254	10¢	$25	0x85a492…
05-24 21:45:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	118	28¢	$33	0xab2427…
05-15 06:30:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	91¢	$37	0x9634fb…
05-15 06:29:28	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	40	91¢	$37	0x18568f…
05-13 14:44:36	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0xe8e786…
05-13 14:44:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	36	92¢	$33	0x46d6bf…
05-11 09:59:38	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x2d22c4…
05-09 22:35:13	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	No	BUY	46	55¢	$25	0xbcbf50…
05-09 22:27:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0x7c7af1…
05-08 13:39:41	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0x3fd5ce…
05-06 15:17:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	35	96¢	$33	0x318f97…
05-06 13:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	35	97¢	$34	0x7b3244…
05-06 13:32:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0xb4e7fe…
05-06 13:31:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	9	74¢	$7	0x29829e…
05-06 13:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xf0172c…
05-06 13:20:50	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	40	76¢	$30	0x34e53e…
05-06 13:03:04	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x260843…
05-06 13:00:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x7aec43…
05-06 12:49:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0xbc8f0f…
05-05 06:15:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	35	78¢	$27	0x52796c…
05-05 06:14:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0x1e4aa4…
05-01 13:33:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xa954cc…
05-01 13:29:04	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0x222d66…
05-01 13:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xcf545b…
05-01 13:12:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x4b7fc6…
05-01 06:10:52	North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	88	100¢	$88	0x8b4b4f…
04-30 06:09:18	North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0xeb5309…
04-30 06:05:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0xa107cd…
04-24 15:18:10	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	No	BUY	53	25¢	$13	0x9164c7…
04-24 14:50:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xa52c03…
04-24 14:49:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x8c9c7d…
04-24 14:48:38	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	40	34¢	$14	0xe9c35f…
04-24 04:59:02	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0x440b02…
04-24 04:58:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	28	97¢	$27	0x0beb5b…
04-22 05:23:28	North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	68¢	$25	0xe7539e…
04-22 04:48:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xe040e4…
04-21 06:02:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xeebe68…
04-21 06:01:22	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x9134e6…
04-21 05:55:36	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	No	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0x0bfb66…
04-21 05:47:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x0fe043…
04-21 05:46:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x952f9e…