Realized P&L
-$408
Unrealized P&L
+$191
Hit rate
12.8%
Resolved
127
Trades
2,704
lifetime
Volume
$32.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$12
Open exposure
$2.98K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-02
last 10-19 01:43
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 14 days
Categories
Other
68% 23% -$309
Politics
26% 9% -$86
Tech
3% 100% +$0
Sports
3% 0% -$5
Crypto
1% 0% -$9
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
18 active days in 12wk • peak 520 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +666 $445 68¢ $450 +$5 10-09 19:19
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +590 $324 65¢ $384 +$61 10-05 08:41
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +666 $226 32¢ $216 -$10 10-08 17:41
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +590 $274 35¢ $206 -$69 10-05 10:26
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +222 $161 90¢ $201 +$41 10-18 23:03
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No +264 $153 65¢ $170 +$17 10-18 07:14
No one announced as next James Bond? No +202 $139 76¢ $152 +$13 10-18 22:41
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting? No +154 $46 94¢ $146 +$100 10-15 06:00
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes +146 $84 74¢ $109 +$24 10-16 03:50
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes +264 $127 35¢ $93 -$34 10-18 07:14
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No +102 $71 70¢ $71 -$1 10-09 11:56
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? Yes +73 $48 91¢ $67 +$19 10-18 22:38
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No +67 $45 89¢ $60 +$15 10-17 02:17
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? No +66 $45 88¢ $58 +$13 10-15 18:50
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +107 $69 51¢ $55 -$14 10-07 19:48
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +108 $39 49¢ $53 +$14 10-08 20:38
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes +201 $73 24¢ $49 -$24 10-18 22:41
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +81 $50 49¢ $40 -$11 10-18 22:43
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +78 $31 51¢ $40 +$9 10-18 22:43
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +55 $27 68¢ $38 +$11 10-18 10:22
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +63 $33 59¢ $37 +$4 10-17 11:29
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +146 $67 26¢ $37 -$30 10-16 04:41
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? Yes +62 $30 59¢ $37 +$7 10-18 23:13
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +61 $24 57¢ $35 +$11 10-15 06:26
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +53 $22 63¢ $34 +$12 10-14 04:36
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +36 $23 88¢ $32 +$8 10-17 20:00
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +102 $31 30¢ $31 +$1 10-09 12:25
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +40 $30 76¢ $30 $0 10-17 12:21
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? No +55 $24 52¢ $29 +$4 10-17 22:30
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? Yes +55 $31 48¢ $26 -$5 10-18 00:01