Unpleasant-Miracle — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$467

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

60.3%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

692

18,361 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$7.72K

$257.7K lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$21

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-29 23:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 132 days

Categories

Sports

36% 68% +$1,887

Other

34% 52% +$2,382

Politics

22% 52% -$2,042

Crypto

8% 57% +$414

Tech

0% 67% +$75

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 199 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	+111	$10	12¢	$14	+$4	10-29 16:25
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+20	$4	31¢	$6	+$2	10-29 16:11
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+437	-$1	0¢	$1	+$1	10-27 17:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	706	$28.9K	214,322	221,984	-7,662	No	+$543	07-06 20:24
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	546	$16.1K	33,458	58,256	-24,798	No	+$10,528	07-19 21:35
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	159	$12.3K	1,110	28,130	-27,020	Yes	-$15,325	07-15 20:48
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	337	$12.3K	30,142	30,826	-684	No	+$924	03-31 18:20
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	379	$11.3K	44,067	43,313	+754	Yes	-$1,484	03-03 21:49
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	370	$9.3K	37,595	34,243	+3,352	Yes	-$18	03-30 18:29
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	269	$9.1K	44,281	44,281	+0	No	+$480	07-15 20:43
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	176	$7.1K	0	15,500	-15,500	No	+$7,066	07-25 06:31
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	228	$6.9K	37,231	35,207	+2,025	No	+$175	07-14 20:51
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	297	$6.1K	17,719	28,759	-11,040	No	+$3,308	10-26 20:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	268	$5.6K	36,103	38,505	-2,402	Yes	-$2,086	04-07 21:30
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	233	$5.1K	90,758	91,573	-815	Yes	+$376	03-24 21:50
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	421	$4.9K	18,409	40,027	-21,618	No	+$2,690	07-11 21:10
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	210	$4.7K	13,138	14,670	-1,532	No	+$250	04-23 17:57
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	381	$4.7K	111	11,206	-11,095	Yes	-$6,461	10-24 08:28
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	156	$4.5K	5,554	16,381	-10,827	No	+$3,863	07-24 15:37
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	132	$4.3K	5,378	5,378	+0	No	+$206	04-15 21:16
will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	136	$3.7K	85,540	54,922	+30,618	Yes	+$166	03-23 22:34
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	170	$3.6K	17,125	19,650	-2,525	No	+$415	03-31 17:22
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	262	$3.4K	12,538	39,558	-27,020	No	+$2,062	07-15 20:59
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	101	$3.0K	27,108	27,108	+0	No	+$72	07-11 21:56
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	131	$2.9K	10,880	10,991	-111	No	-$21	04-21 19:59
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 728 921 637 263	206	$2.8K	128,601	148,703	-20,102	Yes	+$144	03-11 05:43
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	142	$2.6K	7,877	7,885	-7	Yes	+$105	04-16 19:49
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?	79	$2.6K	0	16,500	-16,500	Yes	-$13,880	07-25 06:53
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	130	$2.2K	4,322	18,596	-14,274	No	+$2,145	07-25 15:59
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	178	$2.0K	38,198	38,198	+0	No	+$23	06-15 16:19
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	112	$2.0K	122,572	117,849	+4,723	No	-$81	07-03 00:07
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	133	$2.0K	11,349	8,880	+2,469	Yes	+$35	06-21 11:23
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	238	$1.8K	51,678	51,678	+0	No	+$88	06-26 20:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 23:00:28	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	560	25¢	$138	0x2314f0…
10-29 22:02:16	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	222	5¢	$12	0xb2aebb…
10-29 21:12:46	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	103	2¢	$2	0x1c2e85…
10-29 21:04:09	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x6efb6f…
10-29 20:54:06	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,457	1¢	$20	0xc8faa2…
10-29 20:52:12	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	120	1¢	$2	0xc5ef29…
10-29 20:51:54	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	144	1¢	$2	0x631365…
10-29 20:45:31	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	574	1¢	$6	0xe23129…
10-29 20:45:19	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	765	1¢	$7	0x139381…
10-29 16:25:13	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	111	22¢	$24	0x52d6d8…
10-29 16:11:34	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x0dd175…
10-29 16:02:46	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	647	24¢	$152	0x718400…
10-29 15:59:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	38	24¢	$9	0x92da9e…
10-29 15:59:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	54	24¢	$13	0x15185e…
10-29 15:55:55	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	222	23¢	$52	0x4c65ad…
10-29 15:51:35	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	40	37¢	$15	0xe879b7…
10-29 15:47:37	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	38	25¢	$9	0x0647b0…
10-29 15:46:43	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	66	25¢	$16	0x770aa9…
10-29 15:44:28	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x54e3e7…
10-29 15:33:41	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xc58f6e…
10-29 15:31:04	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	71	16¢	$11	0x2a8a85…
10-29 15:28:49	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x838389…
10-29 15:23:55	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	37	24¢	$9	0x4cb1dd…
10-29 14:34:28	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,020	0¢	$3	0x1318c1…
10-29 14:31:14	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	222	24¢	$53	0xdad373…
10-29 14:28:41	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	222	23¢	$52	0xe6fb93…
10-29 14:19:58	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	222	24¢	$53	0x6c3132…
10-29 14:09:46	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0xae7ca0…
10-29 14:03:34	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	222	23¢	$52	0x6e9d5e…
10-29 14:00:02	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,222	0¢	$9	0x134d76…
10-29 13:47:14	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	151	1¢	$2	0x03fe2b…
10-29 13:14:28	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	356	2¢	$6	0xe24ba1…
10-29 13:14:26	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,104	1¢	$9	0x517186…
10-29 13:00:08	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,222	0¢	$7	0xa1ede4…
10-29 12:41:19	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,222	0¢	$9	0x774be8…
10-29 12:05:29	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	610	2¢	$12	0xb9ad0f…
10-29 10:37:10	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	951	1¢	$8	0xd7ae6f…
10-29 10:32:32	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	160	0¢	$0	0xd16073…
10-29 10:31:23	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	951	0¢	$3	0xbd3dbc…
10-29 10:28:17	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0x3e9602…
10-29 10:28:14	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	426	1¢	$4	0xd30505…
10-29 10:27:46	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	96	1¢	$1	0x2c2b2f…
10-29 09:21:47	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	75	16¢	$12	0x9c4628…
10-29 08:49:14	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	53	21¢	$11	0x7ccdc4…
10-29 08:28:59	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	191	17¢	$33	0xf959c3…
10-29 08:18:47	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	17¢	$5	0xc1265d…
10-29 02:32:56	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	72	23¢	$17	0xb8bb88…
10-28 20:32:28	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,839	2¢	$35	0xa607ef…
10-28 20:18:14	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	18¢	$2	0x355c27…
10-28 19:19:14	Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	3,333	0¢	$3	0xe5927d…
10-28 19:10:22	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,809	2¢	$42	0x8882d1…
10-28 17:26:59	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	333	3¢	$9	0x232910…
10-28 17:15:22	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	18¢	$11	0x3d0cb1…
10-28 16:40:56	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	144	17¢	$24	0x28aa79…
10-28 16:40:55	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x515c11…
10-28 14:51:28	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,017	2¢	$23	0xe452f1…
10-28 13:47:44	Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3,333	0¢	$7	0xd29038…
10-28 13:41:01	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x47f5fd…
10-28 13:34:14	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	978	2¢	$21	0x465f07…
10-28 11:35:34	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	539	2¢	$13	0x4cccdc…
10-28 11:29:43	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	107	2¢	$3	0x264a40…
10-28 11:11:14	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$1	0x8abf89…
10-28 11:11:08	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$1	0x9fb263…
10-28 11:11:01	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$1	0x9a601e…
10-28 11:10:38	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$1	0xddc732…
10-28 10:45:56	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	333	1¢	$4	0xa77643…
10-28 10:42:41	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0x657afa…
10-28 10:09:50	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x6cafc7…
10-28 10:01:58	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xd5aee8…
10-28 10:01:58	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x9fa0fd…
10-28 10:01:58	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x90b1d8…
10-28 10:01:58	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x75561d…
10-28 10:01:25	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x07dcec…
10-28 10:00:52	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xee62a7…
10-28 10:00:22	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x855dba…
10-28 10:00:01	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	98	2¢	$2	0x8c8aed…
10-28 09:59:44	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xd93701…
10-28 09:59:44	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	281	2¢	$6	0xadde91…
10-28 09:59:44	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x0d30d7…
10-28 08:11:35	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,266	2¢	$28	0x65157e…
10-28 07:59:26	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2,188	2¢	$37	0x96177c…
10-28 07:59:02	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xda9649…
10-28 07:59:02	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xd8463a…
10-28 07:59:02	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xce7374…
10-28 07:59:02	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xce59ce…
10-28 07:59:02	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xc666d9…
10-28 07:59:02	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xae388a…
10-28 07:59:02	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x85df8a…
10-28 07:59:02	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x7676a3…
10-28 07:59:02	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x698818…
10-28 07:59:02	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x01aa51…
10-28 07:58:32	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xe3d936…
10-28 07:58:32	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xdd4e86…
10-28 07:58:32	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xb52f8d…
10-28 07:58:32	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x5ad4ff…
10-28 07:58:32	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x5338a9…
10-28 07:58:32	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x3b1957…
10-28 07:58:31	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xda5d77…
10-28 07:58:31	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x58275f…
10-28 07:58:31	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x26d19c…