Realized P&L
+$1.71K
Unrealized P&L
+$39
Hit rate
68.2%
Resolved
13,271
Trades
101,447
lifetime
Volume
$459.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$2.06K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-21
last 10-27 14:13
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 206 days
Categories
Other
65% 86% +$2,142
Politics
20% 86% -$181
Sports
11% 94% +$1,304
Tech
2% 68% -$1,496
Crypto
1% 83% -$41
Pop-Culture
1% 86% -$20
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
35 active days in 12wk • peak 435 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No +313 $239 93¢ $290 +$51 05-05 14:51
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No +234 $107 89¢ $208 +$102 05-07 14:33
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes -166 -$71 100¢ $-166 -$95 08-23 14:59
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +113 $59 100¢ $113 +$54 04-29 08:24
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +113 $101 97¢ $109 +$9 04-29 08:24
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? No +119 $57 76¢ $90 +$32 08-12 17:08
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes -119 -$46 76¢ $-90 -$43 08-13 19:44
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No +579 $80 14¢ $78 -$1 08-24 02:16
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +107 $47 61¢ $65 +$18 08-26 15:33
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes -107 -$41 56¢ $-60 -$19 08-26 15:38
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes -102 -$70 56¢ $-57 +$13 09-03 16:09
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +49 $47 100¢ $49 +$2 04-29 21:26
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Yes -57 -$41 84¢ $-48 -$7 08-14 20:53
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? No +57 $38 84¢ $48 +$10 08-20 00:14
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +49 $41 98¢ $48 +$7 04-29 21:26
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes -51 -$33 90¢ $-46 -$13 04-28 15:58
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026? No +362 $40 12¢ $43 +$4 08-24 12:31
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +51 $35 82¢ $42 +$6 07-02 01:14
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +40 $38 100¢ $40 +$2 08-14 19:41
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes -56 -$47 70¢ $-39 +$8 05-01 09:47
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +39 $36 99¢ $39 +$3 08-29 17:50
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -40 -$34 96¢ $-38 -$4 08-14 19:42
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No +40 $39 83¢ $33 -$5 08-24 07:34
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +805 $106 4¢ $33 -$74 08-04 02:39
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +33 $32 98¢ $32 +$1 08-23 00:46
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes -94 -$50 34¢ $-32 +$18 07-06 21:44
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +94 $50 34¢ $32 -$17 07-06 21:03
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? No +33 $32 94¢ $31 -$1 08-24 20:30
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes -84 -$7 34¢ $-29 -$22 08-30 14:28
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +30 $25 94¢ $28 +$3 09-03 16:04