Descriptive-Pug-Lumberman — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13.7K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.80K

Hit rate

65.7%

Resolved

256

Trades

2,179

lifetime

Volume

$209.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$96

Open exposure

$10.5K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 11-03 09:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Other

83% 57% +$11,785

Politics

16% 75% +$1,764

Crypto

1% 50% +$200

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 65 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	+9,825	$6,488	76¢	$7.5K	+$1,028	10-22 11:32
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	+6,509	$1,907	44¢	$2.8K	+$924	10-22 12:00
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	No	+860	$354	24¢	$202	-$152	09-28 22:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	201	$21.8K	27,519	13,891	+13,628	No	-$4,359	07-15 20:38
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	131	$10.3K	17,078	10,697	+6,381	Yes	+$1,199	09-29 16:55
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	35	$8.7K	11,802	2,767	+9,035	No	+$2,207	06-30 23:15
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	111	$7.9K	11,702	1,017	+10,685	open	—	10-22 11:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	13	$6.9K	4,782	4,782	+0	No	+$1,632	06-28 07:43
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	6	$5.0K	3,780	3,301	+479	Yes	-$154	04-27 04:13
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	23	$4.0K	2,844	2,402	+442	No	+$748	09-29 15:39
will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	15	$3.9K	4,690	4,690	+0	Yes	-$1,371	07-22 21:01
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	17	$3.8K	5,268	757	+4,511	Yes	+$1,358	05-22 09:45
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by february 28	21	$3.6K	2,739	2,739	+0	Yes	+$1,807	02-04 19:49
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$3.2K	2,900	2,900	+0	Yes	-$90	04-09 19:41
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?	42	$2.8K	3,841	1,600	+2,241	Yes	+$23	09-22 16:38
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	5	$2.6K	2,724	2,446	+278	Yes	-$901	06-13 13:53
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	23	$2.6K	3,671	0	+3,671	No	+$1,079	06-29 16:17
russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	17	$2.5K	1,614	1,733	-120	Yes	+$110	03-12 18:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$2.4K	1,538	1,538	+0	No	+$353	05-20 17:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$2.2K	1,449	1,449	+0	No	+$396	04-25 18:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$2.1K	1,176	1,176	+0	No	+$141	05-06 07:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	4	$2.1K	1,578	1,578	+0	No	+$712	05-20 14:57
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	70	$2.1K	1,434	1,434	+0	No	+$343	06-25 17:40
will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1	31	$2.0K	2,393	1,300	+1,093	Yes	-$271	08-19 16:23
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	34	$1.9K	4,837	516	+4,320	Yes	-$1,438	10-06 20:57
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	42	$1.9K	6,509	0	+6,509	open	—	10-22 12:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	13	$1.8K	1,380	1,380	+0	No	+$469	05-20 14:57
will russia enter myrne by july 31 2026	15	$1.7K	2,418	0	+2,418	No	+$681	07-22 06:33
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?	8	$1.7K	2,012	824	+1,188	No	+$393	05-18 03:37
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	3	$1.6K	1,009	1,009	+0	No	+$341	05-25 07:53
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	7	$1.6K	1,783	356	+1,426	No	+$501	10-01 00:40
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?	26	$1.6K	3,489	2,410	+1,078	open	—	10-21 11:48
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?	3	$1.6K	972	972	+0	No	+$271	09-14 11:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 09:24:25	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	152	32¢	$49	0x5c7f06…
11-03 08:58:39	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	166	30¢	$50	0x907178…
11-03 08:53:13	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	91	30¢	$27	0x5d4be9…
11-02 20:37:30	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	233	33¢	$77	0x0a5f69…
11-02 20:26:13	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	66	33¢	$22	0x0b4960…
11-02 20:25:52	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	167	33¢	$55	0x23422e…
11-02 13:16:46	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	71	31¢	$22	0x1dfefe…
11-01 14:16:43	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	24¢	$5	0xdd4463…
11-01 14:16:43	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	74	24¢	$18	0x9f7767…
11-01 14:11:43	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	82	28¢	$23	0xa027f2…
10-31 15:58:04	Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x6edba2…
10-31 01:09:34	Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	No	SELL	143	98¢	$140	0x611438…
10-30 15:18:57	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xc31ccf…
10-30 14:44:34	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	167	50¢	$83	0xc00726…
10-30 14:33:06	Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	No	SELL	166	95¢	$157	0x97a179…
10-30 13:41:27	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	92	48¢	$44	0x1dbed4…
10-30 13:40:27	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	88	50¢	$44	0x6be365…
10-28 21:55:31	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xac387f…
10-28 20:28:52	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0x80c9ca…
10-28 20:25:13	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	31¢	$19	0x92d42e…
10-28 20:24:44	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x150bca…
10-28 20:24:32	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	45	30¢	$14	0xa17306…
10-26 15:25:36	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	761	15¢	$113	0xef3a29…
10-26 15:23:39	Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	No	BUY	506	93¢	$473	0x89fa15…
10-26 15:20:36	Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0xb7aea2…
10-24 16:48:45	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x966169…
10-24 16:48:15	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	147	33¢	$49	0x9b4af2…
10-24 16:48:15	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	86	33¢	$28	0x17df5f…
10-22 12:00:06	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	BUY	296	29¢	$86	0xc3fe3f…
10-22 11:32:21	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	80	63¢	$50	0x202b2e…
10-22 11:29:23	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x2e5463…
10-22 09:30:53	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	23¢	$12	0xd16633…
10-22 09:01:18	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	296	26¢	$77	0xa422cc…
10-22 05:14:24	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0x6685e3…
10-22 03:39:41	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	151	27¢	$41	0xe37cac…
10-22 02:36:15	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xdf17ce…
10-22 02:36:14	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	92	60¢	$55	0x229a0d…
10-22 02:36:03	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	140	63¢	$88	0x5838e6…
10-22 01:15:26	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	133	66¢	$88	0xfd3460…
10-22 01:03:47	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	BUY	148	29¢	$43	0xb6f17d…
10-22 00:29:39	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x8aadd8…
10-22 00:21:56	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	28	65¢	$18	0xc16ad2…
10-22 00:16:36	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	138	64¢	$88	0x9cfc4b…
10-22 00:10:59	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x2b0b92…
10-22 00:10:54	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	130	65¢	$84	0x982dc0…
10-22 00:10:35	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	135	65¢	$88	0x5395ef…
10-22 00:02:39	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x94d3c7…
10-21 22:41:39	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	23¢	$30	0xc55945…
10-21 22:23:09	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	BUY	49	29¢	$14	0x3c87b9…
10-21 22:14:26	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	BUY	56	29¢	$16	0x9e101c…
10-21 21:49:14	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	29¢	$0	0x89057e…
10-21 20:11:14	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x0a29c7…
10-21 19:46:59	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x255ed2…
10-21 18:11:12	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	33	66¢	$22	0x1c153d…
10-21 18:11:06	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	128	69¢	$88	0x651f15…
10-21 18:09:54	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	285	27¢	$77	0xdee588…
10-21 18:07:32	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	285	27¢	$77	0x064a6a…
10-21 16:50:51	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	661	70¢	$462	0x2ab354…
10-21 12:39:00	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	31¢	$46	0x220f2e…
10-21 12:35:24	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	32¢	$12	0x652e44…
10-21 12:33:36	Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31?	No	SELL	843	96¢	$807	0x9deeba…
10-21 11:52:02	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,728	18¢	$315	0xd078c7…
10-21 11:50:17	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	903	66¢	$600	0x3ab267…
10-21 11:49:03	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	311	22¢	$69	0xb4db17…
10-21 11:48:42	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	286	79¢	$226	0x904ba0…
10-21 11:48:32	Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,410	15¢	$351	0xe252fd…
10-21 10:24:56	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	32¢	$34	0x35b250…
10-20 16:24:38	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x6b5b8c…
10-20 05:59:05	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x9242c6…
10-20 05:19:21	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x639d11…
10-20 05:19:21	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0x14f638…
10-20 05:19:05	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	61¢	$88	0x51db25…
10-20 02:20:09	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	95	33¢	$31	0xcba2f1…
10-20 02:20:09	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x5d1c11…
10-20 00:22:08	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	61¢	$46	0x046e69…
10-19 21:21:45	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	33¢	$13	0x115599…
10-19 21:17:00	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0x7a8fed…
10-19 21:08:43	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x8d4903…
10-19 21:08:43	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	85	33¢	$28	0x7f5438…
10-19 16:24:12	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0xd8f214…
10-19 16:06:54	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x48ec97…
10-19 15:53:11	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	46¢	$28	0xd10f9f…
10-19 15:52:56	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	46¢	$37	0xe85d9a…
10-19 15:52:32	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	46¢	$51	0x391f2a…
10-19 15:52:23	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	191	46¢	$88	0x163381…
10-19 15:48:15	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x73995a…
10-19 15:48:15	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	62¢	$87	0x06ba01…
10-19 15:47:03	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	70¢	$18	0x2dd06c…
10-19 15:46:48	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x7ac8cb…
10-19 14:29:14	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	BUY	248	29¢	$72	0xb9f1e7…
10-19 08:29:47	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	BUY	55	29¢	$16	0x87372b…
10-19 05:41:42	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	128	60¢	$77	0xffb123…
10-18 23:31:51	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	BUY	159	32¢	$51	0x3823d3…
10-18 19:54:08	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	BUY	272	32¢	$87	0x1488c2…
10-18 11:06:21	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	66¢	$49	0x3a0864…
10-18 11:02:33	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x5fffce…
10-18 01:18:42	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xdcd91d…
10-18 01:18:39	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	64¢	$36	0xa1d19e…
10-18 01:17:36	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0x69895e…
10-18 01:17:33	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	70¢	$39	0x3432ec…