Rigid-Contingency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

14.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$198

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-18

last 08-08 07:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

35% 0% —

Politics

29% 50% $-3

Sports

26% — —

Crypto

11% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	3	$26	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$0	04-12 06:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	08-04 06:36
nba atl dal 2026 03 18	1	$9	12	0	+12	open	—	03-18 05:25
cbb tx pur 2026 03 26	1	$8	34	0	+34	open	—	03-26 04:35
nba lal hou 2026 03 16	1	$8	19	0	+19	open	—	03-16 05:10
nba hou chi 2026 03 23	1	$8	11	0	+11	open	—	03-23 08:28
btc updown 5m 1773460800	1	$8	15	0	+15	open	—	03-13 12:01
nhl sj wpg 2026 04 16	1	$6	14	0	+14	open	—	04-16 06:46
btc updown 5m 1773803400	1	$6	11	0	+11	open	—	03-17 12:09
nhl nyr dal 2026 04 11	1	$6	9	0	+9	open	—	04-11 07:38
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-03 03:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	06-20 03:44
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	1	$5	17	0	+17	open	—	04-20 08:36
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-06 06:55
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-11 03:27
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	07-24 07:55
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-29 05:54
nhl edm sj 2026 04 08	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	04-08 08:15
iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	07-04 04:09
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-26 04:26
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	07-19 06:45
israel closes its airspace by august 15	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	08-08 07:24
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-22 07:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-16 07:02
bitcoin up or down on march 3	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	03-02 04:10
nba den lac 2026 02 19	1	$4	7	0	+7	open	—	02-18 16:49
nba gsw nop 2026 02 24	1	$4	7	0	+7	open	—	02-24 09:36
btc updown 5m 1773197700	1	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	03-10 07:49
cbb mst uconn 2026 03 27	1	$4	7	0	+7	open	—	03-27 08:12
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	1	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	03-04 13:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-08 07:24:06	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd4b9f5…
08-04 06:36:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x5320ac…
07-24 07:55:01	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xeeb2c3…
07-19 06:45:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xe3962e…
07-11 07:04:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0xc43297…
07-04 04:09:56	iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe25bcc…
06-26 04:26:35	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x375cf6…
06-20 03:44:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0x138a3a…
06-11 03:27:03	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xf768ec…
06-03 03:32:26	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x57181c…
05-29 05:54:15	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4da5fc…
05-22 07:26:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x60e6f7…
05-16 07:02:55	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xf55973…
05-06 06:55:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xc25575…
05-06 06:34:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x7f3790…
05-06 06:21:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	BUY	77	3¢	$2	0xbe49a9…
04-20 08:36:48	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	31¢	$5	0xa3f1d2…
04-16 06:46:58	nhl sj wpg 2026 04 16	Sharks	BUY	14	41¢	$6	0x812956…
04-12 06:46:31	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	117	1¢	$2	0x0f9782…
04-12 06:42:25	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	883	1¢	$11	0x747533…
04-12 06:40:05	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$13	0x3d7c12…
04-11 07:38:07	nhl nyr dal 2026 04 11	Stars	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x3902da…
04-08 08:15:37	nhl edm sj 2026 04 08	Sharks	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x6ce3a8…
03-27 08:12:01	cbb mst uconn 2026 03 27	Connecticut Huskies	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0xca2c7b…
03-26 04:35:39	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26	Texas Longhorns	BUY	34	25¢	$8	0x27ef70…
03-23 08:28:19	nba hou chi 2026 03 23	Rockets	BUY	11	77¢	$8	0x9a2e14…
03-18 05:25:47	nba atl dal 2026 03 18	Hawks	BUY	12	76¢	$9	0x5f9437…
03-17 12:09:29	btc updown 5m 1773803400	Up	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0x0edc34…
03-16 05:10:43	nba lal hou 2026 03 16	Lakers	BUY	19	45¢	$8	0xb83eb6…
03-13 12:01:27	btc updown 5m 1773460800	Up	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x9d7fc3…
03-10 07:49:51	btc updown 5m 1773197700	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x18241a…
03-08 04:00:51	donald trump of truth social posts march 6 march 13 200plus	No	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xde40aa…
03-04 13:24:51	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	No	BUY	4	87¢	$4	0x2cb74d…
03-02 04:10:15	bitcoin up or down on march 3	Up	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0xfa2b9c…
02-24 09:36:02	nba gsw nop 2026 02 24	Warriors	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xb98788…
02-18 16:49:28	nba den lac 2026 02 19	Nuggets	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0x525089…