Ragged-Quiche — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$457

Unrealized P&L

-$46

Hit rate

91.2%

Resolved

178

Trades

325

lifetime

Volume

$17.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$53

Open exposure

$429

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-05 06:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Crypto

49% 90% +$85

Other

30% 87% +$321

Sports

13% 94% +$137

Politics

5% 78% -$74

Tech

3% 80% -$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$93	92¢	$92	-$2	07-26 20:17
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+110	$100	82¢	$91	-$9	07-26 20:18
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$88	88¢	$88	+$0	07-26 21:31
will bitcoin reach 95000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	+110	$96	76¢	$84	-$12	07-27 04:03
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+108	$89	62¢	$66	-$23	07-26 20:14
will ethereum reach 3000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	+10	$8	76¢	$8	-$1	07-26 20:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	4	$1.6K	684	984	-300	No	+$49	03-06 17:01
ethereum all time high by march 31 2026	2	$644	200	457	-257	No	+$7	03-05 05:48
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	6	$501	266	266	+0	No	+$30	01-30 00:53
will bitcoin reach 78k march 9 15	4	$397	201	201	+0	No	+$5	03-14 22:12
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$383	400	0	+400	No	+$17	05-30 18:02
will crude oil cl hit high 75 by end of march 216 621 736 725 922 826 757	4	$366	186	186	-0	Yes	+$5	03-06 05:44
will bitcoin reach 110k in january 2026	2	$347	179	179	+0	No	+$9	01-26 21:18
will ethereum reach 2400 in march 2026	3	$325	330	0	+330	No	+$5	03-29 21:29
bitcoin above 90k on january 31	2	$302	153	153	+0	No	+$3	01-31 04:30
will silver si hit high 140 by end of march	3	$297	150	150	+0	No	+$2	03-24 04:54
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	7	$290	413	106	+306	No	-$86	03-26 22:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	1	$285	300	0	+300	No	+$15	05-02 01:36
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	9	$280	165	165	+0	No	-$18	01-29 20:01
will bosnia and herzegovina reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134474	5	$254	263	0	+263	No	+$9	07-02 01:28
will spacex starship flight test 12 launch by april 30 133 938	4	$241	260	50	+210	No	-$27	04-03 22:09
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	3	$226	255	0	+255	No	+$28	03-07 01:29
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	1	$221	223	0	+223	No	+$2	03-27 08:13
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	3	$200	207	0	+207	No	+$7	03-23 02:18
bitcoin above 90k on january 30	2	$198	100	100	+0	No	+$0	01-30 00:53
cl above 62 jan 2026	1	$198	200	0	+200	Yes	+$2	01-31 04:36
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?	3	$197	202	0	+202	Yes	+$6	03-24 04:55
will xrp reach 2pt8 in february 2026	2	$196	100	100	+0	No	+$3	02-21 18:41
bitcoin above 88k on january 30	2	$196	100	100	+0	No	+$4	01-30 16:33
will paraguay reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134481	4	$195	211	0	+211	No	+$16	07-02 06:58
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	7	$190	200	0	+200	No	+$10	03-08 10:23
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by march 20	2	$190	100	100	+0	No	+$10	03-19 18:09
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by march 20	5	$187	193	0	+193	No	+$7	03-19 19:05
will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	7	$173	200	0	+200	Yes	+$27	03-16 19:32
will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 15	2	$162	82	82	+0	No	+$2	03-13 22:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	1	$154	200	0	+200	No	+$46	05-02 01:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 06:56:56	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xf7e9c4…
08-05 06:56:14	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x891117…
07-27 04:03:28	will bitcoin reach 95000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xd44db6…
07-26 21:31:39	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x7d5280…
07-26 20:18:46	will bitcoin reach 95000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0x0a6ec5…
07-26 20:18:24	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x41cd77…
07-26 20:17:48	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xb0b905…
07-26 20:16:33	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	91¢	$55	0xbd06f6…
07-26 20:15:22	will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	25	76¢	$19	0x59412f…
07-26 20:14:57	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	108	83¢	$89	0x3aa873…
07-26 20:10:04	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xb891ce…
07-26 20:09:39	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x50a76f…
07-26 20:01:30	will ethereum reach 3000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x87e31a…
07-02 06:58:11	will paraguay reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134481	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xc09cec…
07-02 01:28:52	will bosnia and herzegovina reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134474	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xfaa968…
07-02 01:28:52	will bosnia and herzegovina reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134474	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x5d625f…
07-02 01:23:23	will bosnia and herzegovina reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134474	No	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0xd644ab…
07-01 23:04:41	will ghana reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134514	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0xed7b0c…
07-01 20:55:55	will bosnia and herzegovina reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134474	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x22cc8a…
07-01 16:46:17	will algeria reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134505	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0xad7c07…
07-01 16:45:11	will cape verde reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134498	No	BUY	57	97¢	$55	0x1f13c3…
07-01 16:44:37	will bosnia and herzegovina reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134474	No	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0x55fd13…
07-01 16:40:32	will paraguay reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134481	No	BUY	80	91¢	$73	0xd371c2…
07-01 16:38:49	will paraguay reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134481	No	BUY	31	91¢	$28	0x0eb3e6…
07-01 16:38:13	will dr congo reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134510	No	BUY	14	94¢	$13	0xdca08a…
06-29 05:22:22	will dr congo reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134510	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xc2167a…
06-29 05:19:37	will morocco reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134476	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xb9b5f6…
06-29 05:19:25	will morocco reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134476	No	BUY	17	71¢	$12	0xe3aef3…
06-29 05:16:38	will cape verde reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134498	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xa9b84b…
06-29 05:15:20	will cape verde reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134498	No	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0xace2e5…
06-29 05:14:38	will dr congo reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134510	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x05a7e2…
06-29 05:13:55	will sweden reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134490	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0xae064b…
06-29 05:11:49	will paraguay reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134481	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x364e65…
06-28 07:07:49	will canada reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120739	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xe05f4f…
06-28 07:07:23	will germany reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120751	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x8388eb…
06-28 07:05:32	will france reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120767	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x876502…
06-28 07:04:40	will argentina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120771	Yes	BUY	70	93¢	$65	0x8032ba…
06-26 18:53:31	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x1c7c78…
06-26 18:53:20	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x07ab69…
06-26 04:31:22	will scotland reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120745	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x215f28…
06-26 04:30:13	will south korea reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120736	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x87981d…
06-26 01:32:19	will scotland reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120745	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x3ba283…
06-24 15:52:16	will france reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120767	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x32b3e3…
06-24 15:51:46	will colombia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120776	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x41f6e7…
06-24 15:50:50	will ecuador reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120752	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x47123d…
06-24 15:50:17	will south africa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120737	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x0954db…
06-24 08:29:46	will uruguay reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120764	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x96a4a3…
06-24 07:32:43	will scotland reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120745	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x18ffea…
06-24 07:14:47	Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0xcdfee0…
06-23 23:13:05	will cape verde reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120766	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x6b1e34…
06-23 22:24:40	will dr congo reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120778	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xb15ec4…
06-23 20:54:07	will iran reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120760	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x9c9408…
06-23 19:43:35	will england reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120779	Yes	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xd48b91…
06-23 19:42:35	will algeria reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120773	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x338230…
06-23 19:42:17	will iran reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120760	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x39ed65…
06-23 19:41:29	will czechia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120738	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xe7ceda…
06-23 19:24:29	will cape verde reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120766	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x9b1c8a…
06-23 19:24:08	will ecuador reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120752	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x516d57…
06-23 19:22:37	will dr congo reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120778	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x8f35d7…
06-23 19:21:34	will panama reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120781	No	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0x5b253d…
06-23 19:19:53	will japan reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120756	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x850574…
06-23 19:18:49	will bosnia and herzegovina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120742	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xe0a3fc…
06-23 17:46:31	will mexico reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120735	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$2	0xbf34dd…
06-23 17:25:55	will south africa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120737	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x2717c2…
06-23 14:58:19	will mexico reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120735	Yes	BUY	17	66¢	$12	0x7cbabb…
06-23 04:11:49	will norway reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120769	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x8f05ed…
06-23 03:10:56	will spain reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120763	Yes	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0x73ea93…
06-23 03:09:02	will brazil reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120743	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x5c1a8b…
06-23 03:00:11	will argentina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120771	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xb18ca9…
06-23 02:58:31	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x07f308…
06-23 02:57:59	will belgium reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120759	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x96749b…
06-23 02:56:25	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x2363e3…
06-23 02:56:07	will germany reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120751	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x99afe5…
06-23 02:55:46	will spain reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120763	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x4c5504…
06-23 02:55:29	will england reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120779	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$11	0x598ae4…
06-23 02:55:16	will argentina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120771	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xb90eed…
06-23 02:54:53	will france reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120767	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x4acfaa…
06-23 02:54:14	will saudi arabia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120765	No	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0x0f3a77…
06-23 02:53:35	will uzbekistan reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120777	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x765ff9…
06-21 19:39:25	Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x8a9ed9…
06-21 19:24:40	Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xafc5da…
06-21 19:23:47	Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x6e0b3b…
06-21 19:23:20	Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x235e9c…
06-07 06:45:24	Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x26f4ba…
06-05 18:38:01	will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	26	48¢	$12	0x81f6a4…
06-03 18:18:30	Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0xa4f6a0…
06-03 18:17:55	Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	80	93¢	$75	0x915e75…
06-03 18:17:27	Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0x8adafb…
06-03 18:17:04	Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	80	92¢	$74	0x890780…
06-03 18:16:28	Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0x1232d9…
06-03 18:15:52	Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0xb490d2…
06-03 18:15:18	Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	80	92¢	$74	0xbb9d02…
06-03 18:11:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	79	89¢	$70	0x2cc750…
06-01 00:57:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	No	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0xf8bf60…
05-30 19:41:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	No	BUY	14	45¢	$6	0xb1a943…
05-30 18:50:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	No	BUY	36	45¢	$16	0xc69a61…
05-30 18:50:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x10f6e3…
05-30 18:48:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0xf99687…
05-30 18:41:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	No	BUY	101	92¢	$93	0x3ccae2…
05-30 18:24:36	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xa161ed…