Stingy-Trench — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.49K

Unrealized P&L

+$45

Hit rate

84.5%

Resolved

104

Trades

1,519

lifetime

Volume

$824.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$543

Open exposure

$8.16K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-03 00:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Politics

66% 65% -$4,322

Other

34% 65% +$7,677

Tech

0% 100% +$503

Sports

0% 50% -$372

Crypto

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	-5,400	-$5,227	92¢	$-4941	+$286	10-03 00:59
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+2,000	$1,868	98¢	$2.0K	+$94	05-29 14:00
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	-1,014	-$583	62¢	$-634	-$51	07-07 10:45
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	-800	-$336	78¢	$-620	-$284	05-30 20:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	97	$96.0K	52,441	52,441	+0	Yes	+$3,052	02-21 06:17
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	132	$68.7K	36,028	36,028	+0	No	+$1,253	02-18 14:39
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	99	$63.6K	46,000	28,059	+17,941	No	+$1,779	01-31 08:32
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	5	$38.3K	38,404	0	+38,404	Yes	+$77	02-02 15:29
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	33	$37.4K	31,342	6,817	+24,525	No	+$604	02-08 14:55
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	8	$36.2K	30,000	7,860	+22,140	No	+$1,335	02-26 07:39
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	30	$35.4K	27,437	15,438	+11,999	No	-$164	02-16 13:43
will seguro win all of portugals districts	39	$33.6K	21,045	12,725	+8,319	Yes	+$161	02-14 00:25
trump out as president by march 31	94	$22.5K	21,681	1,283	+20,398	No	+$420	03-05 14:56
will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	75	$20.7K	21,226	0	+21,226	No	+$537	03-06 16:49
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	6	$20.5K	13,657	7,769	+5,888	Yes	+$269	01-21 14:44
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 440m and 480m by january 31	3	$17.2K	8,615	8,615	+0	No	+$14	01-27 15:59
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	1	$16.6K	16,900	0	+16,900	No	+$254	02-19 17:00
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	6	$15.8K	10,430	10,430	+0	Yes	-$1,201	02-27 15:10
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	116	$15.7K	12,945	7,098	+5,848	No	+$1,245	03-04 11:08
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	1	$14.9K	15,000	0	+15,000	No	+$120	02-18 09:19
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	18	$13.7K	15,087	10,500	+4,587	Yes	-$5,944	02-28 06:40
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	1	$13.2K	13,320	0	+13,320	No	+$93	02-17 11:36
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	10	$12.1K	12,366	0	+12,366	No	+$295	01-21 06:39
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	3	$11.7K	3,914	9,314	-5,400	open	—	10-03 00:59
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	7	$11.3K	11,521	0	+11,521	Yes	+$133	02-04 01:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	49	$11.1K	12,003	12,003	+0	Yes	-$3,036	02-28 23:23
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	25	$10.6K	8,126	6,427	+1,699	No	+$626	02-01 01:26
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	13	$8.7K	4,000	14,000	-10,000	Yes	+$5,187	01-03 08:58
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	2	$8.1K	8,110	0	+8,110	Yes	+$25	02-22 13:09
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	13	$7.9K	8,000	8,000	+0	Yes	-$124	02-20 14:52
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	1	$7.9K	8,000	0	+8,000	No	+$128	02-22 17:03
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	3	$7.2K	3,700	3,700	+0	No	+$38	08-21 07:31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	5	$7.1K	4,400	4,400	+0	open	—	09-20 22:23
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	2	$6.8K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$360	02-01 17:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-03 00:59:59	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	4,657	94¢	$4,377	0x6ac1dc…
09-20 22:23:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	SELL	3,300	80¢	$2,640	0xe171e8…
08-23 09:16:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	SELL	821	82¢	$673	0xccddee…
08-23 06:27:42	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 222 252	No	SELL	258	82¢	$211	0x46b3c7…
08-23 02:48:27	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 222 252	No	SELL	21	82¢	$17	0x6c3528…
08-21 08:06:16	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	4,657	88¢	$4,098	0x84017e…
08-21 07:32:25	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	No	BUY	4,400	80¢	$3,520	0x09731d…
08-21 07:31:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	3,700	98¢	$3,633	0xc7ee8b…
08-21 05:04:42	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	2,500	94¢	$2,350	0xd1340e…
07-27 22:07:27	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	1,000	94¢	$937	0xfd92fa…
07-27 20:19:12	Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	BUY	209	81¢	$169	0xcefb02…
07-23 17:52:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	3,300	97¢	$3,211	0xbbfb5b…
07-07 10:45:35	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	448	57¢	$255	0x953832…
07-07 08:46:49	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	57¢	$28	0x36e0b0…
07-07 08:42:05	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0xea6fdc…
07-07 07:55:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0xd3dff7…
07-04 07:46:44	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	2,500	92¢	$2,300	0xe9bed5…
07-03 19:03:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	1,462	82¢	$1,199	0x70a503…
07-03 06:42:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	1,790	99¢	$1,778	0x1e69a3…
07-03 06:21:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	23	99¢	$22	0xfd4288…
07-03 05:52:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	415	99¢	$412	0xa03d83…
07-03 05:51:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0x6ac377…
07-03 05:50:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	272	99¢	$270	0x3c5333…
07-01 07:50:37	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	134	58¢	$78	0xdb8253…
07-01 07:20:37	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	345	58¢	$200	0xc5d0fe…
07-01 07:11:44	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	58¢	$6	0xa6b91f…
07-01 07:09:28	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	58¢	$10	0x405b9a…
07-01 07:05:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	832	90¢	$749	0x130def…
07-01 07:03:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	629	90¢	$567	0x2bab41…
07-01 05:56:37	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	SELL	28	96¢	$27	0x828b93…
06-27 11:39:37	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	870	100¢	$868	0x3d0b04…
06-27 11:13:55	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xbdf501…
06-27 09:50:58	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x3d7124…
06-27 09:14:32	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x0320ec…
06-27 09:13:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	2,924	86¢	$2,514	0xe5b30f…
06-27 09:08:34	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x19909b…
06-27 08:52:14	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	3,914	83¢	$3,248	0xc7a5db…
06-27 08:50:17	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	151	100¢	$150	0x385cce…
06-06 13:22:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	308	98¢	$301	0xcdc4d2…
06-02 22:13:02	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	872	9¢	$79	0xc37f87…
06-02 22:11:50	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	19¢	$19	0xb12d7c…
05-30 20:21:57	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	138	42¢	$58	0x3beb55…
05-30 20:08:39	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	99	42¢	$42	0xc14004…
05-30 19:41:40	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0xb13ccb…
05-30 19:01:41	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	76	42¢	$32	0x4c37ed…
05-30 18:56:13	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	36	42¢	$15	0x5540fb…
05-30 18:47:42	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x496b30…
05-30 18:37:56	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	370	42¢	$155	0x7740f0…
05-30 18:27:02	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	74	42¢	$31	0xf92f7f…
05-30 18:04:08	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	42¢	$1	0x67b5c3…
05-30 18:03:49	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2,382	99¢	$2,366	0xbb7eff…
05-30 15:05:13	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x9f9724…
05-30 12:56:20	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x46e576…
05-30 12:52:12	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x23e579…
05-30 12:25:30	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	291	18¢	$52	0x12b923…
05-30 10:58:06	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xc5e1f0…
05-30 10:53:06	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x0daea3…
05-30 08:40:34	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xbbe1a6…
05-30 08:38:07	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xf1ec5a…
05-30 08:36:03	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xeb7e15…
05-30 07:03:48	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xaae6db…
05-30 06:16:03	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x04452c…
05-30 04:36:09	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x63c940…
05-30 04:17:10	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xc223d3…
05-30 04:12:27	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xde3395…
05-30 04:05:39	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xbcb42c…
05-30 03:59:10	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xdeaaca…
05-30 03:56:33	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xd8ff6c…
05-30 01:05:40	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc3ea1a…
05-30 00:58:57	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd1bd27…
05-30 00:54:15	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1a532c…
05-30 00:05:10	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xb07603…
05-30 00:01:58	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x856de1…
05-29 22:08:00	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x2a35b7…
05-29 22:01:35	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xb36428…
05-29 20:23:00	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x718408…
05-29 20:22:50	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x74e9ab…
05-29 20:18:54	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x2335e2…
05-29 18:19:38	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x17d289…
05-29 18:18:30	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xcaf366…
05-29 18:16:10	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xcdfc59…
05-29 17:02:33	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xcc4b26…
05-29 17:02:29	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1b6801…
05-29 15:38:29	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x12e194…
05-29 15:38:27	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xa43f67…
05-29 15:38:10	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0xba5ccb…
05-29 15:38:03	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xf6558f…
05-29 15:37:56	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x7d288f…
05-29 14:55:54	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	700	96¢	$668	0xa5dd4c…
05-29 14:00:08	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0x943336…
05-29 13:59:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x1d2e13…
05-29 13:59:30	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0x1d7e9c…
05-29 13:58:20	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x3e193a…
05-29 13:57:59	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0xc94886…
05-29 13:57:03	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0xb08a05…
05-29 13:56:10	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x1bd37d…
05-29 13:54:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0xe23765…
05-29 13:54:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x795aea…
05-29 13:52:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x7db592…
05-29 13:52:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0x5b3c92…