Agreeable-Cave — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

-$24

Hit rate

84.6%

Resolved

Trades

237

lifetime

Volume

$5.90K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$31

1 position

First seen

2026-01-21

last 07-14 10:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

38% — —

Politics

38% 33% $-10

Tech

13% — —

Sports

6% — —

Crypto

5% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes		+220	$55	14¢	$31	$-24	07-02 09:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	10	$878	450	450	+0	open	—	04-16 05:00
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	4	$571	290	290	+0	open	—	04-16 03:38
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	5	$378	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-04 15:05
will the dravida munnetra kazhagam dmk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	4	$300	200	200	+0	open	—	04-24 09:41
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	3	$292	200	200	+0	open	—	03-22 16:51
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	2	$271	238	238	+0	open	—	04-16 02:41
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	05-16 14:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	3	$190	100	100	+0	open	—	05-16 09:43
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	2	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	05-04 16:24
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	2	$164	667	667	+0	open	—	07-04 02:17
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 80 99	12	$141	200	200	+0	open	—	03-28 01:54
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	6	$130	77	77	+0	open	—	07-07 11:51
will bitcoin reach 75000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	2	$120	129	129	+0	open	—	07-06 09:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	4	$106	67	40	+27	open	—	05-17 14:24
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	2	$100	100	100	+0	open	—	05-27 09:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	3	$95	60	35	+25	open	—	05-12 07:08
will mrbeasts next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1 287	5	$93	200	200	+0	open	—	03-22 15:33
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$79	40	40	+0	open	—	05-12 13:36
iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	6	$76	60	60	+0	open	—	07-11 07:13
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$55	220	0	+220	open	—	07-02 09:44
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $175 in May?	2	$54	100	0	+100	open	—	05-27 08:39
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	4	$54	40	40	+0	Yes	$-5	05-03 15:50
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	8	$53	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	05-05 04:54
will the announcers say ronaldo during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260706213505727	4	$52	40	40	+0	open	—	07-07 12:13
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	3	$52	105	0	+105	open	—	05-27 08:34
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May?	2	$50	50	50	+0	open	—	05-14 08:01
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	2	$46	23	23	+0	open	—	05-21 12:08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$43	22	22	+0	open	—	05-12 13:44
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$42	21	21	+0	open	—	05-18 02:43
GTA VI released before June 2026?	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	05-22 03:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 10:14:34	will yordan alvarez record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249819	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x3a992e…
07-14 06:24:41	will yordan alvarez record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249819	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x6cb778…
07-11 07:46:25	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x226a6f…
07-11 07:29:19	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0x78e59d…
07-11 07:28:28	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x2e112b…
07-11 07:20:07	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	SELL	3	16¢	$0	0x31e8f2…
07-11 07:17:07	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0xb8ae77…
07-11 07:16:41	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x495bdd…
07-11 07:13:55	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x4d97cb…
07-11 07:12:59	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x99f679…
07-11 07:12:26	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xe1177d…
07-11 07:12:07	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x1568b0…
07-11 07:11:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xcae8c9…
07-11 07:11:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x81a9fa…
07-11 07:11:22	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x2e1f07…
07-11 07:10:07	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xe39157…
07-11 07:01:41	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xc5f015…
07-07 12:20:17	will the announcers say pharaoh during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260707021240075	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x3b8bb0…
07-07 12:14:35	will the announcers say compact during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260707021240076	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xd5958b…
07-07 12:13:31	will the announcers say ronaldo during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260706213505727	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x0c51d9…
07-07 12:13:19	will the announcers say ronaldo during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260706213505727	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x71dc2c…
07-07 12:13:10	will the announcers say var during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260706213505716	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xd6e990…
07-07 12:12:37	will the announcers say var during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260706213505716	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xdccc7c…
07-07 12:12:14	will the announcers say compact during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260707021240076	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xa1c151…
07-07 12:06:37	will the announcers say what a save during the switzerland vs colombia fifa world cup match 20260706213736127	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x4035d5…
07-07 12:06:13	will the announcers say what a save during the switzerland vs colombia fifa world cup match 20260706213736127	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x6d47f4…
07-07 11:52:49	will the announcers say pharaoh during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260707021240075	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x517514…
07-07 11:51:01	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x90d1e4…
07-07 11:50:34	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x37d4d1…
07-07 11:48:43	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	SELL	3	7¢	$0	0xfda1bd…
07-07 11:46:22	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xfb7264…
07-07 11:42:34	will the announcers say ronaldo during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260706213505727	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x5d2a97…
07-07 11:42:17	will the announcers say ronaldo during the argentina vs egypt fifa world cup match 20260706213505727	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x209a9d…
07-07 11:38:02	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	SELL	23	90¢	$21	0x95a166…
07-07 11:37:22	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	23	91¢	$21	0x14d475…
07-06 09:17:11	will bitcoin reach 75000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	SELL	129	48¢	$62	0xd74e88…
07-04 02:17:11	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	667	13¢	$84	0x729a1d…
07-04 02:01:16	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	667	12¢	$80	0x8639fe…
07-02 12:32:22	will bitcoin reach 75000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	129	45¢	$58	0x2683d4…
07-02 09:44:10	Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	220	25¢	$55	0x1dcd93…
06-30 04:03:16	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526259	Yes	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x061b28…
06-30 04:01:34	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526259	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xad37a9…
06-30 03:54:47	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343712	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0xc2304d…
06-30 03:52:44	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343712	Yes	BUY	17	80¢	$13	0x56d142…
06-30 03:52:40	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343712	Yes	BUY	3	80¢	$3	0x2abdbc…
06-30 03:47:11	will the announcers say wild during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526255	No	SELL	15	52¢	$8	0xd25f3e…
06-30 03:46:49	will the announcers say pressure 5 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526250	No	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0x2ddfb2…
06-30 03:46:25	will the announcers say wild during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526255	No	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x1a0644…
06-30 03:45:55	will the announcers say pressure 5 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526250	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x0831d1…
06-30 03:45:50	will the announcers say wild during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526255	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x9a97c5…
06-30 03:45:49	will the announcers say wild during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526255	No	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0xd08707…
06-30 03:45:41	will the announcers say pressure 5 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526250	No	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0xbf8f76…
06-30 03:45:35	will the announcers say pressure 5 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526250	No	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x1bfc1b…
06-30 03:45:20	will the announcers say golden boot during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526262	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xa94987…
06-30 03:44:41	will the announcers say golden boot during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526262	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x96bc6b…
06-30 03:32:59	will the announcers say what a save during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526261	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xa9faac…
06-30 03:31:29	will the announcers say what a save during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526261	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x081194…
06-13 04:45:16	other 20260609173030778	Yes	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0x3bb661…
06-13 04:45:06	will 1 matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610211249338	No	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x2fa5da…
06-13 04:44:57	will 1 matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610211249338	Yes	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xee2708…
06-13 04:44:42	will 1 matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610211249338	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xf1e002…
06-13 04:41:00	will 1 matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610211249338	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xbb2c2b…
06-13 04:34:55	other 20260609173030778	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0xffca12…
06-09 11:08:52	will drake have 3 albums in the billboard 200 top 10 20260602162056895	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$5	0xbd903a…
06-07 20:41:46	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	SELL	111	7¢	$8	0x788a36…
06-07 20:41:28	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	167	10¢	$17	0xb94355…
06-07 20:41:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0xc1e8ac…
06-05 14:29:13	will meta dip to 560 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0x9592ee…
06-05 13:31:27	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xa9e8ad…
06-05 13:30:00	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0xd92a8c…
06-05 13:22:30	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	213	2¢	$5	0x140934…
06-05 13:14:46	will meta dip to 560 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0xfa1a64…
06-03 21:56:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xf5022a…
06-03 21:55:18	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	8¢	$15	0xa6788a…
06-02 14:48:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xfeb317…
06-02 14:42:26	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$15	0x680229…
06-02 14:26:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x438be0…
05-31 10:25:56	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x3eba1d…
05-31 10:05:56	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xc44487…
05-31 09:50:51	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0x4640e5…
05-31 09:50:23	Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x3be740…
05-31 09:50:13	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0x03be8b…
05-31 09:49:53	Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xeb3fda…
05-31 09:49:20	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x6bf2d5…
05-31 09:45:33	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x9cda84…
05-31 09:45:27	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xa0e3b6…
05-31 09:15:48	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0x443b3f…
05-31 09:12:40	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x570b7a…
05-31 09:12:25	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	48¢	$7	0x3a14bb…
05-31 09:08:55	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	48¢	$7	0x82630d…
05-31 08:19:42	Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x718683…
05-31 08:19:25	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xb8787e…
05-31 08:16:18	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x97e891…
05-31 08:10:42	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0xb912fd…
05-31 08:08:27	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x2e58ba…
05-31 08:07:26	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xa7a964…
05-31 08:06:35	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xb2553f…
05-31 08:06:35	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xab28f5…
05-31 08:06:33	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xeb0ac4…
05-31 08:06:33	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xdf3cc8…