Organic-Replacement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8.41K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.6%

Resolved

7,873

Trades

15,873

lifetime

Volume

$301.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-10

last 10-31 15:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 236 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 57% +$8,407

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 127 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	4	$171	319	0	+319	Up	-$171	10-11 06:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-05 04:45 UTC	6	$132	249	0	+249	Down	-$132	10-05 04:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	6	$124	229	0	+229	Down	-$124	10-02 17:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	7	$118	213	0	+213	Up	-$118	10-11 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	3	$109	203	0	+203	Up	+$93	10-07 13:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 16:00 UTC	9	$102	191	0	+191	Up	+$89	10-17 16:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	1	$99	191	0	+191	Up	+$92	10-12 08:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	1	$97	191	0	+191	Down	-$97	10-12 09:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	1	$97	180	0	+180	Down	-$97	10-12 12:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	1	$97	187	0	+187	Down	-$97	10-12 12:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-10 16:45 UTC	3	$96	189	0	+189	Down	-$96	08-10 16:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	1	$96	179	0	+179	Down	-$96	10-12 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	1	$96	178	0	+178	Down	+$82	10-12 07:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:05 UTC	1	$95	180	0	+180	Down	-$95	10-16 10:03
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 22:15 UTC	1	$95	182	0	+182	Up	-$95	10-16 22:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	1	$95	183	0	+183	Up	+$88	10-12 12:37
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 07:30 UTC	1	$95	185	0	+185	Up	-$95	10-17 07:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	1	$95	175	0	+175	Up	-$95	10-12 00:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-16 15:45 UTC	3	$95	87	87	+0	Up	+$1	04-16 15:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 20:15 UTC	1	$94	183	0	+183	Up	-$94	10-16 20:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	1	$94	176	0	+176	Down	+$82	10-11 23:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	2	$94	182	0	+182	Up	-$94	10-12 04:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	2	$94	177	0	+177	Down	-$94	10-11 13:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-17 02:00 UTC	5	$94	86	86	+0	Down	+$1	04-17 02:02
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 05:30 UTC	1	$93	182	0	+182	Down	+$88	10-17 05:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	1	$93	182	0	+182	Up	-$93	10-11 23:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 07:45 UTC	1	$93	181	0	+181	Up	-$93	10-17 07:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	1	$93	179	0	+179	Down	-$93	10-12 14:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	1	$93	177	0	+177	Down	-$93	10-11 10:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	1	$93	179	0	+179	Up	+$86	10-12 16:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 15:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	67	51¢	$34	0xf066ff…
10-31 12:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	46	51¢	$23	0x3a0bd7…
10-31 11:45:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	54	51¢	$28	0x9a19b2…
10-31 10:30:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	68	51¢	$35	0xce9589…
10-31 10:23:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	73	51¢	$37	0xe4ca69…
10-31 07:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	62	51¢	$32	0x4931b0…
10-31 06:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	47	51¢	$24	0x74ee68…
10-31 03:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	48	51¢	$25	0x585cce…
10-31 03:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x038507…
10-31 01:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	115	51¢	$59	0x38e86a…
10-31 01:23:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x3d1307…
10-31 01:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x641f18…
10-31 00:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	98	54¢	$53	0x4bb02b…
10-31 00:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	37	51¢	$19	0x6e4f73…
10-31 00:14:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xad6c54…
10-31 00:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	35	54¢	$19	0x7b0042…
10-31 00:14:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	24	54¢	$13	0x84dd04…
10-31 00:14:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	40	54¢	$21	0x6a1811…
10-31 00:08:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xd6423a…
10-30 23:45:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x0fbbc2…
10-30 23:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x6b482d…
10-30 23:23:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xf1152c…
10-30 23:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	78	51¢	$39	0xc00101…
10-30 21:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	24	51¢	$12	0xe42a1a…
10-30 18:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xb4e53c…
10-30 18:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xe94494…
10-30 15:10:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	79	51¢	$40	0xc156d6…
10-30 13:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	113	51¢	$58	0x8d5e62…
10-30 13:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x9e6890…
10-30 12:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x8033e6…
10-30 11:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	68	51¢	$35	0xd72524…
10-30 10:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	116	51¢	$59	0x28d84e…
10-30 09:23:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	112	51¢	$57	0x957baf…
10-30 09:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	69	51¢	$35	0xd07abc…
10-30 08:45:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-30 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	78	51¢	$40	0x12f8a0…
10-30 08:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x54bd44…
10-30 08:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	63	51¢	$32	0x961e83…
10-30 07:53:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	73	51¢	$37	0x464301…
10-30 07:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	117	50¢	$58	0x95160b…
10-30 05:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	117	51¢	$60	0xb5c5e6…
10-30 05:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xadac34…
10-30 05:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x2f2d04…
10-30 04:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	114	51¢	$58	0x9196ea…
10-30 04:23:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	99	51¢	$50	0xbeb28c…
10-30 04:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0x00ef17…
10-30 04:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x7f9217…
10-30 03:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xee185b…
10-30 03:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	72	51¢	$37	0x050691…
10-30 00:23:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x760eb3…
10-30 00:10:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xe6c84a…
10-29 23:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x189eab…
10-29 23:40:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x821742…
10-29 22:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	69	51¢	$35	0xd617ee…
10-29 20:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x8af828…
10-29 20:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	67	51¢	$34	0x5165d7…
10-29 20:12:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x4b6e11…
10-29 17:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	92	51¢	$47	0x57b324…
10-29 17:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	106	51¢	$54	0x3e509e…
10-29 16:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	124	51¢	$63	0xe28016…
10-29 15:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	74	51¢	$38	0x840341…
10-29 15:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x76189f…
10-29 15:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x6b5229…
10-29 14:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	122	51¢	$62	0x6c326b…
10-29 14:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	54	51¢	$27	0x3ba14c…
10-29 14:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	78	51¢	$39	0xd9fc2a…
10-29 13:59:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	125	51¢	$64	0xacdbd9…
10-29 10:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	107	51¢	$55	0xf024df…
10-29 10:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	128	50¢	$64	0xa3764e…
10-29 02:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	25	51¢	$13	0x0ad9e9…
10-29 02:30:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	42	51¢	$22	0x3435c9…
10-29 02:23:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xa95976…
10-29 01:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xf727df…
10-29 01:53:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	52¢	$13	0xed6bd1…
10-29 01:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	25	52¢	$13	0xa42b93…
10-29 01:42:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	26	51¢	$13	0xf34f9e…
10-29 01:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	59	52¢	$30	0x027ad8…
10-29 01:32:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	26	51¢	$13	0xac4bea…
10-29 01:23:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	138	51¢	$70	0xd680c0…
10-29 01:08:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xcad0a0…
10-28 20:11:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	78	52¢	$40	0xff9b77…
10-28 20:04:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	47	52¢	$25	0x40d13a…
10-28 20:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x76b1c2…
10-28 19:46:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	99	52¢	$52	0x86978f…
10-28 19:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	118	50¢	$59	0xe00724…
10-28 18:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	66	51¢	$33	0xa1199e…
10-28 18:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x5e9b9b…
10-28 18:01:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	25	50¢	$13	0xb7f546…
10-28 17:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	86	51¢	$44	0x8c12c3…
10-28 13:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	131	54¢	$70	0x15e8eb…
10-28 13:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xc52769…
10-28 12:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	26	52¢	$13	0xc09542…
10-28 12:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	126	51¢	$64	0xc02b7f…
10-28 12:23:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	26	51¢	$13	0x9038ad…
10-28 12:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	70	51¢	$36	0x868afc…
10-28 12:12:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	26	52¢	$14	0xba2907…
10-28 12:10:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	57	51¢	$29	0xf7a818…
10-28 08:45:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-28 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	66	51¢	$34	0x528e4d…
10-28 08:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0x6e91bc…
10-28 08:38:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	53¢	$3	0x67ad3c…
10-28 08:38:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0x9cd709…