Organic-Replacement — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$111

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.8%

Resolved (7d)

246

Trades (7d)

362

15,794 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$9.39K

$299.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-10

last 10-28 20:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 233 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 57% +$8,408

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 127 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	4	$171	319	0	+319	Up	-$171	10-11 06:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-05 04:45 UTC	6	$132	249	0	+249	Down	-$132	10-05 04:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	6	$124	229	0	+229	Down	-$124	10-02 17:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	7	$118	213	0	+213	Up	-$118	10-11 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	3	$109	203	0	+203	Up	+$93	10-07 13:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 16:00 UTC	9	$102	191	0	+191	Up	+$89	10-17 16:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	1	$99	191	0	+191	Up	+$92	10-12 08:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	1	$97	191	0	+191	Down	-$97	10-12 09:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	1	$97	180	0	+180	Down	-$97	10-12 12:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	1	$97	187	0	+187	Down	-$97	10-12 12:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-10 16:45 UTC	3	$96	189	0	+189	Down	-$96	08-10 16:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	1	$96	179	0	+179	Down	-$96	10-12 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	1	$96	178	0	+178	Down	+$82	10-12 07:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:05 UTC	1	$95	180	0	+180	Down	-$95	10-16 10:03
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 22:15 UTC	1	$95	182	0	+182	Up	-$95	10-16 22:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	1	$95	183	0	+183	Up	+$88	10-12 12:37
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 07:30 UTC	1	$95	185	0	+185	Up	-$95	10-17 07:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	1	$95	175	0	+175	Up	-$95	10-12 00:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-16 15:45 UTC	3	$95	87	87	+0	Up	+$1	04-16 15:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 20:15 UTC	1	$94	183	0	+183	Up	-$94	10-16 20:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	1	$94	176	0	+176	Down	+$82	10-11 23:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	2	$94	182	0	+182	Up	-$94	10-12 04:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	2	$94	177	0	+177	Down	-$94	10-11 13:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-17 02:00 UTC	5	$94	86	86	+0	Down	+$1	04-17 02:02
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 05:30 UTC	1	$93	182	0	+182	Down	+$88	10-17 05:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	1	$93	182	0	+182	Up	-$93	10-11 23:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 07:45 UTC	1	$93	181	0	+181	Up	-$93	10-17 07:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	1	$93	179	0	+179	Down	-$93	10-12 14:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	1	$93	177	0	+177	Down	-$93	10-11 10:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	1	$93	179	0	+179	Up	+$86	10-12 16:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 20:11:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	78	52¢	$40	0xff9b77…
10-28 20:04:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	47	52¢	$25	0x40d13a…
10-28 20:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x76b1c2…
10-28 19:46:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	99	52¢	$52	0x86978f…
10-28 19:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	118	50¢	$59	0xe00724…
10-28 18:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	66	51¢	$33	0xa1199e…
10-28 18:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x5e9b9b…
10-28 18:01:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	25	50¢	$13	0xb7f546…
10-28 17:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	86	51¢	$44	0x8c12c3…
10-28 13:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	131	54¢	$70	0x15e8eb…
10-28 13:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xc52769…
10-28 12:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	26	52¢	$13	0xc09542…
10-28 12:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	126	51¢	$64	0xc02b7f…
10-28 12:23:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	26	51¢	$13	0x9038ad…
10-28 12:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	70	51¢	$36	0x868afc…
10-28 12:12:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	26	52¢	$14	0xba2907…
10-28 12:10:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	57	51¢	$29	0xf7a818…
10-28 08:45:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-28 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	66	51¢	$34	0x528e4d…
10-28 08:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0x6e91bc…
10-28 08:38:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	53¢	$3	0x67ad3c…
10-28 08:38:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0x9cd709…
10-28 08:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	61	51¢	$31	0x61db1f…
10-28 08:27:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	27	53¢	$14	0x3b5436…
10-28 08:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	77	51¢	$39	0x046672…
10-28 08:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0x497f94…
10-28 08:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	148	51¢	$76	0x45c096…
10-28 08:02:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	28	52¢	$15	0xd005b5…
10-28 07:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	64	51¢	$33	0x3eb61e…
10-28 03:45:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	76	51¢	$39	0x7adc63…
10-28 03:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	28	51¢	$14	0x7dc23b…
10-28 03:30:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	79	51¢	$41	0x6cf272…
10-28 02:15:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	74	51¢	$38	0xf1b54d…
10-28 02:14:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	142	52¢	$74	0x54c496…
10-28 01:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	36	51¢	$18	0xf53685…
10-27 21:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x456719…
10-27 21:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	27	50¢	$13	0x545a0c…
10-27 21:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	27	50¢	$14	0x986e72…
10-27 20:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	142	51¢	$72	0x982257…
10-27 20:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	66	51¢	$34	0x1bf4b5…
10-27 19:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	69	51¢	$35	0xe5870d…
10-27 19:10:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	83	51¢	$42	0x269c9d…
10-27 17:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	85	51¢	$43	0x449eb3…
10-27 17:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	87	51¢	$44	0xc65483…
10-27 16:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	90	51¢	$46	0x558561…
10-27 15:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	132	51¢	$68	0x77ae21…
10-27 15:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	138	51¢	$70	0xa79e6e…
10-27 15:03:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	52¢	$13	0x84b6d7…
10-27 12:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	25	52¢	$13	0xd08c29…
10-27 12:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	55	52¢	$28	0x170ff2…
10-27 12:43:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	26	53¢	$14	0xed3855…
10-27 12:33:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	26	53¢	$14	0x06227c…
10-27 12:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x983dac…
10-27 12:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xb47b91…
10-27 11:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	93	51¢	$47	0x6d73ca…
10-27 10:16:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	139	51¢	$71	0xf2cd14…
10-27 01:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	82	52¢	$43	0x9fabf6…
10-27 01:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	42	51¢	$21	0x1deefd…
10-27 01:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	68	51¢	$34	0x132b38…
10-27 00:55:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	65	50¢	$33	0x7a7d82…
10-27 00:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	24	51¢	$12	0xb4719d…
10-27 00:30:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	42	50¢	$21	0x5d09df…
10-27 00:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0xb34b63…
10-27 00:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0xea4e06…
10-27 00:15:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	46	50¢	$23	0x81fd2a…
10-27 00:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	25	51¢	$13	0x76d170…
10-26 23:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	57	51¢	$29	0x78be36…
10-26 15:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	84	51¢	$43	0x0f2ac9…
10-26 15:22:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	52¢	$13	0xbf5d7c…
10-26 15:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	51	51¢	$26	0x004024…
10-26 15:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	141	51¢	$72	0x8acb0a…
10-26 13:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x8159cf…
10-26 13:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	25	53¢	$14	0xf95c9c…
10-26 13:27:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	26	53¢	$14	0xd1387c…
10-26 13:25:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	147	53¢	$78	0x5a1986…
10-26 09:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xbfa7ca…
10-26 09:30:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	52	51¢	$26	0xfa36a8…
10-26 09:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	88	50¢	$44	0xb55b1c…
10-26 09:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	26	50¢	$13	0xcd08b2…
10-26 08:53:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-26 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	73	51¢	$37	0xd4e0f1…
10-26 08:38:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	99	50¢	$50	0x43b6f2…
10-26 06:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	34	50¢	$17	0x568d46…
10-26 05:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	37	51¢	$19	0xe41a03…
10-26 05:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	138	52¢	$71	0x5cbb29…
10-26 05:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	43	51¢	$22	0x658b06…
10-26 05:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	101	51¢	$51	0x417d37…
10-26 04:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	108	51¢	$55	0xe22445…
10-26 01:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xa24224…
10-25 23:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	27	51¢	$14	0x05a9fe…
10-25 23:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	27	51¢	$14	0xb8a5ae…
10-25 23:42:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x1a6713…
10-25 23:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	26	52¢	$14	0x5daa14…
10-25 23:25:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	34	51¢	$17	0x9aee8a…
10-25 23:25:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	27	51¢	$14	0x57ef26…
10-25 23:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x8e7c04…
10-25 23:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	26	51¢	$14	0x70c150…
10-25 22:00:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	139	54¢	$75	0xaf3d5c…
10-25 22:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	26	52¢	$14	0x677e10…
10-25 21:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	26	53¢	$14	0x4bc139…
10-25 21:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	26	53¢	$14	0xf8f3a3…
10-25 21:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	26	51¢	$13	0x96f36a…