Uneven-Neighborhood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

91.4%

Resolved

Trades

871

lifetime

Volume

$69.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$80

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 06-26 07:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

54% 67% $-1

Other

31% 100% +$4

Crypto

13% 0% $-32

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	13	$6.7K	3,694	3,694	+0	open	—	01-27 04:44
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	25	$6.2K	3,683	3,683	+0	open	—	04-29 06:31
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	12	$3.5K	2,149	2,149	+0	open	—	01-27 04:40
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	12	$3.1K	1,692	1,692	+0	open	—	04-01 10:55
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	6	$3.0K	2,130	1,130	+1,000	open	—	03-24 16:42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	5	$2.9K	1,508	1,508	+0	open	—	04-12 05:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$2.6K	2,498	2,498	+0	open	—	04-08 15:34
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	12	$2.4K	1,343	1,343	+0	open	—	04-13 05:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$1.6K	1,617	708	+908	open	—	04-06 05:51
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	23	$1.6K	1,517	1,915	-398	open	—	04-11 07:16
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	26	$1.6K	1,754	1,596	+158	open	—	04-28 14:06
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	24	$1.5K	2,050	2,050	+0	open	—	04-04 06:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	5	$1.4K	2,782	2,782	+0	open	—	04-25 14:36
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	5	$1.3K	694	894	-200	open	—	04-13 02:18
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$1.2K	714	714	+0	open	—	01-27 04:42
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	8	$1.2K	710	710	+0	open	—	05-01 03:48
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	5	$1.2K	756	756	+0	open	—	01-20 15:20
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$1.1K	1,023	211	+811	open	—	03-28 10:05
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	10	$1.1K	677	777	-100	open	—	04-17 16:11
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	8	$1.0K	774	774	+0	open	—	04-15 17:12
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	2	$940	500	500	+0	open	—	01-27 04:39
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$933	1,181	0	+1,181	open	—	01-27 04:50
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	10	$855	453	453	+0	open	—	06-07 06:47
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	19	$836	657	657	+0	open	—	04-12 21:39
us strikes iran by january 12 2026 314	1	$828	874	0	+874	open	—	01-12 05:16
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	5	$804	2,177	0	+2,177	open	—	04-20 17:10
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	18	$685	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	04-03 16:28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	13	$639	910	501	+409	open	—	01-22 08:04
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	3	$628	327	487	-160	open	—	01-31 03:36
AI bubble burst in 2026?	9	$580	760	0	+760	open	—	06-09 16:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 07:39:08	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 429	Yes	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x1de795…
06-25 12:21:02	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	9¢	$6	0x607b9a…
06-12 10:56:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	27	21¢	$6	0x85bed9…
06-12 10:55:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	115	21¢	$24	0x1f25e8…
06-12 10:55:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	SELL	132	96¢	$126	0xf39a6d…
06-12 10:54:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	58	21¢	$12	0x74a062…
06-12 10:53:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	391	45¢	$177	0x6fa6dc…
06-11 21:20:03	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Yes	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0xa9c00d…
06-11 05:54:46	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0x84e508…
06-11 05:53:55	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	BUY	32	92¢	$29	0xa05d8a…
06-11 05:50:51	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	410	63¢	$258	0xcf58e3…
06-09 16:28:55	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	22	76¢	$17	0x377a95…
06-09 04:50:18	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0x864abd…
06-08 23:45:55	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	78	76¢	$59	0xe46431…
06-08 17:08:48	will tim cook say ai or artificial intelligence during the apple wwdc 2026 event on june 8th	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xadbc61…
06-07 18:56:28	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	60	76¢	$46	0x983de7…
06-07 11:32:10	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x266431…
06-07 10:24:22	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0xa36fc1…
06-07 07:28:42	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	74	56¢	$42	0x87604b…
06-07 06:47:13	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	453	99¢	$446	0xea25b2…
06-06 20:26:57	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0xa2c01f…
06-06 06:13:22	will apple announce an ai charged siri during the wwdc 2026 keynote	Yes	BUY	21	88¢	$19	0x605d9e…
06-06 01:46:51	FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x625067…
06-05 15:17:03	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	17	78¢	$14	0xa6bf81…
06-05 13:40:43	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	136	78¢	$106	0xe0fe82…
06-05 13:19:21	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	45	78¢	$35	0x8a86ea…
06-05 09:19:39	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x4c6978…
06-05 06:19:12	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	200	84¢	$169	0x5e1109…
06-05 06:11:49	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	140	3¢	$4	0xe50cda…
06-05 06:10:00	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	2	78¢	$1	0xc5bb47…
06-04 11:12:18	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	SELL	50	51¢	$25	0x4330e3…
06-04 05:53:18	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	48	73¢	$35	0xa47e61…
06-04 05:51:36	Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?	No	SELL	40	61¢	$24	0x89cf6d…
06-04 05:51:13	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	SELL	40	46¢	$18	0x251648…
06-03 07:48:33	Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	4¢	$4	0x41ddcd…
06-03 06:28:40	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	29¢	$9	0x300318…
06-03 06:28:38	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	29¢	$2	0x118dac…
06-01 15:17:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	409	58¢	$237	0x8cfb91…
06-01 14:11:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	105	42¢	$44	0xaee563…
06-01 14:05:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xdedd35…
06-01 13:57:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0x305855…
06-01 13:53:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	30¢	$4	0x40ef05…
06-01 13:53:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	39	30¢	$12	0x25949e…
06-01 13:53:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x9dbd50…
06-01 13:49:53	FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	Yes	SELL	37	20¢	$7	0xb480d7…
05-31 18:37:43	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	16¢	$3	0x09b419…
05-31 18:37:05	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	SELL	718	16¢	$115	0x3747cf…
05-30 04:45:10	FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	No	BUY	66	80¢	$53	0xf1f3ce…
05-30 04:44:14	FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	Yes	SELL	13	21¢	$3	0x5d673f…
05-29 23:31:01	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0xad5315…
05-29 21:17:57	Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May?	No	SELL	49	90¢	$44	0x5cbed7…
05-29 07:54:14	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0xd753d7…
05-29 07:53:27	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	SELL	38	89¢	$34	0x1fbdd7…
05-29 02:46:02	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xb1aa33…
05-28 16:46:20	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	35	58¢	$20	0x2f3444…
05-28 16:10:09	Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	49¢	$24	0x31214c…
05-28 14:49:35	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	SELL	2	89¢	$1	0x640ef0…
05-28 11:58:58	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0x48cfc2…
05-28 09:55:04	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	35¢	$2	0xa9472e…
05-28 09:52:56	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	46	35¢	$16	0xa64325…
05-28 06:44:19	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	63¢	$24	0x0d6c1f…
05-28 06:41:22	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x0329bd…
05-28 06:41:06	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x673546…
05-28 06:41:01	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	89¢	$24	0x023a90…
05-28 06:40:57	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	88¢	$11	0x6e5879…
05-28 06:40:40	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	88¢	$17	0xd19f1b…
05-28 06:40:38	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x9f8868…
05-28 06:39:56	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	45	88¢	$40	0x61f33f…
05-28 04:07:32	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	300	75¢	$225	0x13d612…
05-28 00:35:37	FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xc7f71f…
05-24 16:35:21	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xf58a9c…
05-24 14:21:02	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	59¢	$11	0x037356…
05-24 10:02:13	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x279b7b…
05-24 09:23:53	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	No	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0x9150ba…
05-23 12:16:45	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x70152b…
05-23 11:25:19	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x1b6ad2…
05-23 05:30:03	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0x1a6ccc…
05-23 04:27:41	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	49	99¢	$48	0x3d544a…
05-22 22:34:13	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0xbc946c…
05-22 08:43:07	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x7053a5…
05-22 08:40:57	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x40b0e0…
05-22 08:40:57	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x25b2c1…
05-22 08:40:54	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x291a79…
05-22 08:40:54	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x27d294…
05-22 08:40:29	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0x953fbe…
05-22 08:40:27	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x0e26b3…
05-22 08:40:26	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0x80dd24…
05-22 08:40:26	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x25c294…
05-22 04:57:55	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x2c8ee3…
05-22 04:49:24	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x4d839d…
05-22 04:29:36	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	BUY	17	28¢	$5	0x074bfe…
05-22 04:28:12	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	BUY	23	28¢	$6	0xdd9faf…
05-22 04:27:45	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xb389a1…
05-22 04:24:47	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0x6ea108…
05-22 04:11:31	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	No	BUY	56	96¢	$53	0x6afc10…
05-22 03:36:27	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0x1922a6…
05-21 12:58:23	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xf2cc62…
05-21 08:28:27	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x48192b…
05-21 08:28:08	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xa71ee1…
05-21 08:23:10	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xb30b33…