Probable-Act — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$402

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

43.4%

Resolved

660

Trades

819,257

lifetime

Volume

$3.08M

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 06-30 06:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 36% +$402

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 19677 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	1,192	$4.7K	9,073	6,700	+2,373	open	—	04-28 20:00
btc updown 15m 1776135600	729	$3.7K	4,761	3,011	+1,750	open	—	04-14 03:15
btc updown 15m 1776036600	1,109	$3.4K	3,997	3,334	+663	open	—	04-12 23:45
btc updown 15m 1776050100	1,062	$3.3K	4,314	3,234	+1,080	open	—	04-13 03:30
btc updown 15m 1776049200	1,112	$3.3K	3,943	3,064	+879	open	—	04-13 03:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9AM ET	449	$3.1K	2,999	1,455	+1,544	open	—	04-28 13:57
btc updown 15m 1775519100	646	$3.0K	3,221	2,620	+601	open	—	04-06 23:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	471	$2.9K	4,137	2,394	+1,744	open	—	04-27 06:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8AM ET	245	$2.8K	2,140	1,976	+165	open	—	04-28 13:32
btc updown 15m 1776052800	878	$2.7K	3,035	2,433	+602	open	—	04-13 04:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	686	$2.7K	3,398	2,592	+806	open	—	04-30 14:45
btc updown 15m 1775862000	780	$2.7K	2,882	2,636	+246	open	—	04-10 23:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	542	$2.7K	2,570	2,032	+538	open	—	04-30 15:00
btc updown 15m 1775867400	820	$2.7K	3,994	2,712	+1,281	open	—	04-11 00:45
btc updown 15m 1776051000	984	$2.7K	3,188	2,752	+436	open	—	04-13 03:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	613	$2.7K	2,944	2,513	+431	open	—	04-28 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	452	$2.6K	3,225	1,819	+1,405	open	—	05-01 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	495	$2.5K	3,306	2,375	+932	open	—	04-28 16:45
btc updown 15m 1776051900	818	$2.5K	3,208	3,155	+53	open	—	04-13 04:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	667	$2.5K	3,238	2,220	+1,018	open	—	05-14 16:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	423	$2.5K	3,354	2,175	+1,178	open	—	05-01 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	628	$2.4K	3,171	1,673	+1,498	open	—	04-27 06:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11AM ET	438	$2.4K	3,172	2,190	+982	open	—	05-01 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1PM ET	496	$2.4K	2,949	2,266	+682	open	—	04-30 18:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	266	$2.4K	3,415	1,762	+1,653	open	—	05-01 15:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	620	$2.4K	3,193	2,306	+887	open	—	04-30 16:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	478	$2.4K	2,772	1,887	+885	open	—	05-01 15:29
btc updown 15m 1776178800	437	$2.3K	2,460	2,060	+400	open	—	04-14 15:12
btc updown 15m 1776177900	429	$2.3K	2,617	2,232	+385	open	—	04-14 14:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3PM ET	489	$2.3K	3,302	2,074	+1,228	open	—	04-27 20:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 12:11:04	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0x88815c…
06-30 12:10:59	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xc8b79d…
06-30 12:10:58	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	SELL	4	6¢	$0	0x77c79b…
06-30 12:10:58	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	SELL	21	5¢	$1	0x5bae9f…
06-30 12:10:53	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x57ce71…
06-30 12:10:49	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x129524…
06-30 12:10:26	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	127	1¢	$1	0x2f447d…
06-30 12:09:59	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x42f6dd…
06-30 12:09:56	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x2be998…
06-30 12:09:35	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	SELL	18	95¢	$17	0x53368a…
06-30 12:09:28	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0xd6f309…
06-30 12:09:28	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x60ab8d…
06-30 12:09:17	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Down	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xfa8966…
06-30 12:08:32	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x4e730f…
06-30 12:07:25	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	12	95¢	$12	0x7d5def…
06-30 12:07:14	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	18	7¢	$1	0xa6ec3c…
06-30 12:07:08	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0x741d0f…
06-30 12:07:08	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0x71419b…
06-30 12:07:08	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x0916bd…
06-30 12:07:07	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x0b42ee…
06-30 12:07:07	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	6	95¢	$5	0x00b10d…
06-30 12:07:05	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	45	3¢	$1	0x3cfab9…
06-30 12:06:46	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	6	96¢	$5	0xdf166c…
06-30 12:06:14	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x2d8fa7…
06-30 12:06:08	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	14	8¢	$1	0xb5acb7…
06-30 12:05:28	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	SELL	1	92¢	$0	0xeda43c…
06-30 12:05:25	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	SELL	7	92¢	$7	0x756b00…
06-30 12:05:02	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x5123e2…
06-30 12:04:28	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0x9be5d7…
06-30 12:04:16	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0x08344d…
06-30 12:03:52	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x469ca2…
06-30 12:03:47	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xf32248…
06-30 12:03:20	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0x632e59…
06-30 12:03:13	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0x675ce7…
06-30 12:03:08	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x6b59f5…
06-30 12:03:02	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0x2c6575…
06-30 12:02:41	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x8a31d2…
06-30 12:02:41	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x0a2ed9…
06-30 12:02:31	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	2	23¢	$0	0xcbe8ca…
06-30 12:02:31	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xc2f30f…
06-30 12:02:31	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xa2b913…
06-30 12:02:28	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x96a240…
06-30 12:02:28	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x69dd32…
06-30 12:02:28	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x4c6c3c…
06-30 12:02:28	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x3e53b0…
06-30 12:00:47	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x9b7872…
06-30 12:00:20	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x25eebe…
06-30 12:00:04	btc updown 15m 1782820800	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x808154…
06-30 11:58:37	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x93d757…
06-30 11:57:02	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0x0fd91e…
06-30 11:56:32	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x7a8673…
06-30 11:55:47	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xe390ed…
06-30 11:55:43	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0xdcbb85…
06-30 11:55:41	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x867c11…
06-30 11:55:40	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x0dde1b…
06-30 11:55:38	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x2e54ea…
06-30 11:55:32	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xbf1c54…
06-30 11:55:26	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	93	1¢	$1	0xe6c445…
06-30 11:55:22	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	39	1¢	$0	0xebf790…
06-30 11:54:23	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Down	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x2497ac…
06-30 11:54:22	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb30f89…
06-30 11:54:05	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0x530ec6…
06-30 11:54:05	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x2b1daf…
06-30 11:54:04	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x26db26…
06-30 11:54:01	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Down	SELL	6	94¢	$6	0xc35305…
06-30 11:53:53	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xb3770f…
06-30 11:53:53	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0x069197…
06-30 11:53:52	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xb5fe82…
06-30 11:53:50	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xf2b2ab…
06-30 11:53:47	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x26b3d5…
06-30 11:53:46	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xd1ed11…
06-30 11:53:41	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0x3f1b9c…
06-30 11:53:40	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xe727d6…
06-30 11:53:40	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0xdce7a8…
06-30 11:53:31	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0xa4653a…
06-30 11:53:29	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Down	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0xf63124…
06-30 11:53:29	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Down	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x0959cd…
06-30 11:53:23	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xb59372…
06-30 11:53:22	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Down	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x9cfb1f…
06-30 11:53:13	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Down	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0xa99942…
06-30 11:53:13	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x279bf3…
06-30 11:52:20	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Down	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0x22d45a…
06-30 11:52:13	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0x6069b0…
06-30 11:52:04	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Down	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x52fa32…
06-30 11:51:59	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Down	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0x4b26f0…
06-30 11:51:58	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x49de41…
06-30 11:51:52	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xb077a2…
06-30 11:51:52	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Down	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0xac1cf8…
06-30 11:51:49	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Down	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0x8dcb84…
06-30 11:51:49	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Down	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x530884…
06-30 11:51:47	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x57934a…
06-30 11:51:47	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Down	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x200978…
06-30 11:50:46	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xef862e…
06-30 11:50:38	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Down	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x6510c6…
06-30 11:50:29	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Up	SELL	6	26¢	$1	0x4150c6…
06-30 11:50:10	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Down	SELL	4	74¢	$3	0x93a1e2…
06-30 11:50:04	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7am et	Down	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0x467ab1…
06-30 11:49:55	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Down	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0xc7cbca…
06-30 11:49:55	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	BUY	9	71¢	$7	0xab79d2…
06-30 11:49:14	btc updown 15m 1782819900	Up	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0x1cb475…