Probable-Act — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7.37K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.7%

Resolved

20,042

Trades

1,180,474

lifetime

Volume

$4.35M

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 10-28 03:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 139 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 49% +$7,374

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 8236 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	1,192	$4.7K	9,073	6,700	+2,373	Up	-$92	04-28 20:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 03:00 UTC	729	$3.7K	4,761	3,011	+1,750	Up	-$73	04-14 03:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-12 23:30 UTC	1,109	$3.4K	3,997	3,334	+663	Up	+$109	04-12 23:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-13 03:15 UTC	1,062	$3.3K	4,314	3,234	+1,080	Down	-$272	04-13 03:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-13 03:00 UTC	1,112	$3.3K	3,943	3,064	+879	Down	+$141	04-13 03:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9AM ET	449	$3.1K	2,999	1,455	+1,544	Down	+$62	04-28 13:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-06 23:45 UTC	646	$3.0K	3,221	2,620	+601	Up	+$144	04-06 23:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	471	$2.9K	4,137	2,394	+1,744	Down	+$296	04-27 06:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8AM ET	245	$2.8K	2,140	1,976	+165	Up	+$10	04-28 13:32
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-13 04:00 UTC	878	$2.7K	3,035	2,433	+602	Down	-$38	04-13 04:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	686	$2.7K	3,398	2,592	+806	Down	-$17	04-30 14:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-10 23:00 UTC	780	$2.7K	2,882	2,636	+246	Up	+$168	04-10 23:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	542	$2.7K	2,570	2,032	+538	Down	+$17	04-30 15:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-11 00:30 UTC	820	$2.7K	3,994	2,712	+1,281	Down	-$23	04-11 00:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-13 03:30 UTC	984	$2.7K	3,188	2,752	+436	Down	+$44	04-13 03:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	613	$2.7K	2,944	2,513	+431	Up	+$17	04-28 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	452	$2.6K	3,225	1,819	+1,405	Down	+$18	05-01 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	495	$2.5K	3,306	2,375	+932	Down	+$10	04-28 16:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-13 03:45 UTC	818	$2.5K	3,208	3,155	+53	Up	+$44	04-13 04:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	667	$2.5K	3,238	2,220	+1,018	Up	-$48	05-14 16:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	423	$2.5K	3,354	2,175	+1,178	Down	+$69	05-01 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	628	$2.4K	3,171	1,673	+1,498	Down	-$2	04-27 06:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:45 UTC	345	$2.4K	2,655	1,460	+1,195	Down	-$159	08-07 01:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11AM ET	438	$2.4K	3,172	2,190	+982	Up	+$98	05-01 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1PM ET	496	$2.4K	2,949	2,266	+682	Down	-$128	04-30 18:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	266	$2.4K	3,415	1,762	+1,653	Down	-$21	05-01 15:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	620	$2.4K	3,193	2,306	+887	Up	-$160	04-30 16:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	478	$2.4K	2,772	1,887	+885	Up	-$15	05-01 15:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 15:00 UTC	437	$2.3K	2,460	2,060	+400	Down	-$53	04-14 15:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 14:45 UTC	429	$2.3K	2,617	2,232	+385	Down	-$34	04-14 14:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 03:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0xcbb630…
10-28 03:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	8	27¢	$2	0xab578e…
10-28 03:01:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x45d4ed…
10-28 03:01:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xe969bf…
10-28 03:01:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	20	32¢	$7	0x88bea7…
10-28 03:01:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0x5cdb53…
10-28 03:01:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	28	69¢	$19	0x2ce3b4…
10-28 03:01:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0x185d0a…
10-28 03:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0xd46276…
10-28 03:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	22	78¢	$17	0x046822…
10-28 03:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	39	76¢	$30	0x886fd1…
10-28 00:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xd3fea5…
10-28 00:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	40	76¢	$31	0x6d5824…
10-28 00:56:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xd23e87…
10-28 00:56:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x74a99c…
10-28 00:56:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x0edca2…
10-28 00:56:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xb8673c…
10-28 00:56:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x188a6a…
10-28 00:54:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x321e76…
10-27 00:58:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	17	97¢	$17	0x691bbe…
10-27 00:58:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xa516da…
10-27 00:58:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	14	96¢	$14	0xc8cfb0…
10-27 00:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	6	11¢	$1	0x79c8dc…
10-27 00:58:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	35	12¢	$4	0x515613…
10-27 00:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	28	15¢	$4	0x653ec8…
10-27 00:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	15¢	$1	0x400590…
10-27 00:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x400590…
10-27 00:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	91¢	$12	0x0eb9bc…
10-27 00:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x43bbe9…
10-27 00:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	94¢	$3	0x2dc839…
10-27 00:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x238959…
10-27 00:58:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	23	95¢	$22	0xf8eddd…
10-27 00:58:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	94¢	$6	0xc9a629…
10-27 00:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x924b3e…
10-27 00:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	87¢	$8	0x459d76…
10-27 00:57:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xfe73a8…
10-27 00:57:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x30093e…
10-27 00:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	91¢	$13	0xee497e…
10-27 00:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0xbbb666…
10-27 00:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	91¢	$3	0xbbb666…
10-27 00:57:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	29	94¢	$28	0x39196c…
10-27 00:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	92¢	$12	0xc87b85…
10-27 00:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	16	88¢	$14	0xde52ad…
10-27 00:57:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x9f09f2…
10-27 00:57:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0x529ed7…
10-27 00:57:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	7	88¢	$6	0x9febb0…
10-27 00:57:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x56882f…
10-27 00:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	28	10¢	$3	0xbe37f7…
10-27 00:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	18	11¢	$2	0xa24792…
10-27 00:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	86¢	$9	0xc02b0c…
10-27 00:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	35	12¢	$4	0xbb83a9…
10-27 00:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x813aba…
10-27 00:57:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x14b4a9…
10-27 00:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xd01ee2…
10-27 00:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	26	16¢	$4	0x3b931e…
10-27 00:57:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x4145b9…
10-27 00:57:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	33	87¢	$29	0x2b200b…
10-27 00:57:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	28	15¢	$4	0x0c3293…
10-27 00:57:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	13	82¢	$11	0x0c3293…
10-27 00:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0xd98c6d…
10-27 00:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0xc9960e…
10-27 00:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	21¢	$3	0x8ada7e…
10-27 00:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xf0a2dc…
10-27 00:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x92735c…
10-27 00:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	84¢	$12	0x64da25…
10-27 00:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	19	22¢	$4	0x63c8ac…
10-27 00:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xe03514…
10-27 00:56:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x78988e…
10-27 00:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x8aa52d…
10-27 00:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x13fde4…
10-27 00:56:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0x9063d0…
10-27 00:56:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x502b46…
10-27 00:56:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	15	45¢	$7	0x32b57a…
10-27 00:56:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xeeec9b…
10-27 00:56:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0xeeec9b…
10-27 00:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x37b60f…
10-27 00:56:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xac4440…
10-27 00:56:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xebbd37…
10-27 00:56:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x53ced5…
10-27 00:56:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x465ddf…
10-27 00:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0xea3e39…
10-27 00:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x20c4ee…
10-27 00:56:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x7e776c…
10-27 00:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	55¢	$7	0xadb711…
10-27 00:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xadb711…
10-27 00:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x51adf0…
10-27 00:56:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xf994f8…
09-30 18:44:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 18:30 UTC	Down	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0xd7bba7…
09-30 18:44:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x7653eb…
09-30 18:43:32	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x2d8ce9…
09-30 18:43:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 18:30 UTC	Down	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0x9e5d5f…
09-30 18:43:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 18:30 UTC	Down	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x3110f8…
09-30 18:43:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 18:30 UTC	Up	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0xad7df9…
09-30 18:43:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	17	8¢	$1	0x7c4f34…
09-30 18:43:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 18:30 UTC	Down	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x9b2846…
09-30 18:43:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x93e917…
09-30 18:43:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x8091e2…
09-30 18:42:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 18:30 UTC	Down	SELL	17	96¢	$16	0x1be545…
09-30 18:41:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x6accab…
09-30 18:41:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 18:30 UTC	Down	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x874278…