Probable-Act — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$402

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

43.4%

Resolved

660

Trades

821,166

lifetime

Volume

$3.09M

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 06-30 12:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 36% +$402

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 19677 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	1,192	$4.7K	9,073	6,700	+2,373	open	—	04-28 20:00
btc updown 15m 1776135600	729	$3.7K	4,761	3,011	+1,750	open	—	04-14 03:15
btc updown 15m 1776036600	1,109	$3.4K	3,997	3,334	+663	open	—	04-12 23:45
btc updown 15m 1776050100	1,062	$3.3K	4,314	3,234	+1,080	open	—	04-13 03:30
btc updown 15m 1776049200	1,112	$3.3K	3,943	3,064	+879	open	—	04-13 03:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9AM ET	449	$3.1K	2,999	1,455	+1,544	open	—	04-28 13:57
btc updown 15m 1775519100	646	$3.0K	3,221	2,620	+601	open	—	04-06 23:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	471	$2.9K	4,137	2,394	+1,744	open	—	04-27 06:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8AM ET	245	$2.8K	2,140	1,976	+165	open	—	04-28 13:32
btc updown 15m 1776052800	878	$2.7K	3,035	2,433	+602	open	—	04-13 04:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	686	$2.7K	3,398	2,592	+806	open	—	04-30 14:45
btc updown 15m 1775862000	780	$2.7K	2,882	2,636	+246	open	—	04-10 23:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	542	$2.7K	2,570	2,032	+538	open	—	04-30 15:00
btc updown 15m 1775867400	820	$2.7K	3,994	2,712	+1,281	open	—	04-11 00:45
btc updown 15m 1776051000	984	$2.7K	3,188	2,752	+436	open	—	04-13 03:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	613	$2.7K	2,944	2,513	+431	open	—	04-28 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	452	$2.6K	3,225	1,819	+1,405	open	—	05-01 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	495	$2.5K	3,306	2,375	+932	open	—	04-28 16:45
btc updown 15m 1776051900	818	$2.5K	3,208	3,155	+53	open	—	04-13 04:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	667	$2.5K	3,238	2,220	+1,018	open	—	05-14 16:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	423	$2.5K	3,354	2,175	+1,178	open	—	05-01 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	628	$2.4K	3,171	1,673	+1,498	open	—	04-27 06:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11AM ET	438	$2.4K	3,172	2,190	+982	open	—	05-01 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1PM ET	496	$2.4K	2,949	2,266	+682	open	—	04-30 18:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	266	$2.4K	3,415	1,762	+1,653	open	—	05-01 15:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	620	$2.4K	3,193	2,306	+887	open	—	04-30 16:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	478	$2.4K	2,772	1,887	+885	open	—	05-01 15:29
btc updown 15m 1776178800	437	$2.3K	2,460	2,060	+400	open	—	04-14 15:12
btc updown 15m 1776177900	429	$2.3K	2,617	2,232	+385	open	—	04-14 14:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3PM ET	489	$2.3K	3,302	2,074	+1,228	open	—	04-27 20:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 15:55:53	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Down	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xad06cb…
06-30 15:55:52	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x0cdfda…
06-30 15:55:31	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Up	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xe50b08…
06-30 15:55:31	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x1cc5d5…
06-30 15:55:31	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Up	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x07a2fc…
06-30 15:55:10	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x99c9c8…
06-30 15:55:08	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xe7fe4a…
06-30 15:54:37	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x1bb758…
06-30 15:54:35	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x88ccae…
06-30 15:54:28	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x8122a4…
06-30 15:54:26	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x8245cd…
06-30 15:53:46	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0xc5cd20…
06-30 15:53:46	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x2eedd4…
06-30 15:53:17	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xd5b057…
06-30 15:53:04	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x3c3fe0…
06-30 15:52:55	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x9548f5…
06-30 15:52:38	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x845ab7…
06-30 15:52:26	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0xd361cc…
06-30 15:52:22	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x124ba3…
06-30 15:52:16	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x555483…
06-30 15:51:25	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x5cdfdc…
06-30 15:51:22	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x118289…
06-30 15:51:14	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xea12b2…
06-30 15:50:55	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xa81775…
06-30 15:50:16	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x8d6076…
06-30 15:50:08	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xd7b942…
06-30 15:50:08	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xc2dfb8…
06-30 15:50:02	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xa983ba…
06-30 15:49:56	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	SELL	6	76¢	$4	0x901542…
06-30 15:49:44	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xb70c55…
06-30 15:49:44	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0x1e067b…
06-30 15:49:43	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Up	SELL	8	66¢	$5	0x5078b2…
06-30 15:49:34	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x6a810f…
06-30 15:49:11	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xe77207…
06-30 15:48:53	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Up	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x96eec3…
06-30 15:48:41	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xf3f0f5…
06-30 15:48:22	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x20de67…
06-30 15:48:05	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	SELL	2	78¢	$2	0xb31676…
06-30 15:47:16	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xec874c…
06-30 15:46:59	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0xc7fb7e…
06-30 15:46:56	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x934c4b…
06-30 15:46:31	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Down	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x6c8350…
06-30 15:46:29	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xc00a74…
06-30 15:46:23	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xfd7ba9…
06-30 15:46:11	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$5	0xdb5791…
06-30 15:46:11	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0x03b8c8…
06-30 15:46:08	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x7d9808…
06-30 15:46:07	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0x5cb0ac…
06-30 15:46:05	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xc0a500…
06-30 15:46:02	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x6425f9…
06-30 15:45:52	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Down	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x2458ec…
06-30 15:45:49	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x64cffd…
06-30 15:45:47	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x509fe3…
06-30 15:45:43	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x501d6b…
06-30 15:45:40	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xb51f80…
06-30 15:45:25	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xd81a33…
06-30 15:45:23	btc updown 15m 1782834300	Down	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x37d1fc…
06-30 15:44:05	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x80d8d6…
06-30 15:43:47	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x154334…
06-30 15:43:46	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0xa10633…
06-30 15:43:35	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x1d8827…
06-30 15:43:26	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0x898dd7…
06-30 15:43:23	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0xe6262d…
06-30 15:43:23	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	BUY	7	19¢	$1	0x8bffad…
06-30 15:43:23	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x7c1f04…
06-30 15:43:20	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0x1558b5…
06-30 15:43:19	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xfdc41d…
06-30 15:43:19	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x61bef3…
06-30 15:43:17	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xc2703c…
06-30 15:43:17	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x8dc378…
06-30 15:43:16	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xcf0caa…
06-30 15:43:11	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x9b2315…
06-30 15:43:11	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x1e9217…
06-30 15:43:10	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0x398735…
06-30 15:43:08	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0x0979cb…
06-30 15:43:07	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xd1d796…
06-30 15:43:07	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x5edd2d…
06-30 15:43:07	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0x0d25b6…
06-30 15:43:05	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	BUY	7	82¢	$5	0xbbe474…
06-30 15:43:04	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x30a26e…
06-30 15:43:04	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x0ddfa2…
06-30 15:43:04	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0x0ddfa2…
06-30 15:43:02	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0xfd3228…
06-30 15:43:02	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xc648f5…
06-30 15:43:01	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0xe45485…
06-30 15:42:59	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xdeebf5…
06-30 15:42:43	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x9e10cd…
06-30 15:42:34	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0x8d18c4…
06-30 15:41:53	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xcd5bed…
06-30 15:41:26	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x459489…
06-30 15:41:23	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x2370f8…
06-30 15:41:22	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0xf23111…
06-30 15:40:55	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Down	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0xc97b73…
06-30 15:40:49	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x878b26…
06-30 15:40:43	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	SELL	6	40¢	$2	0x955db4…
06-30 15:40:14	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Up	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0xf9be5d…
06-30 15:40:11	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xc02fdb…
06-30 15:40:11	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x61f143…
06-30 15:40:11	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	BUY	4	64¢	$3	0x267bc5…
06-30 15:39:58	btc updown 15m 1782833400	Down	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x6b68f9…