Probable-Act — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$35

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

42.2%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

486

486 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.96K

$1.96K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$22

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-06 04:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 52% +$35

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 257 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	Up		+22	$17	100¢	$22	+$5	05-06 03:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	Down		+28	$1	0¢	$0	$-1	05-06 03:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	61	$236	299	216	+83	open	—	05-06 00:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	9	$104	219	74	+146	open	—	05-06 02:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	9	$72	76	12	+64	open	—	05-06 04:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2PM ET	11	$66	72	26	+46	open	—	05-05 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	18	$62	89	35	+54	open	—	05-06 00:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8PM ET	16	$61	119	19	+100	open	—	05-06 00:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	10	$54	80	21	+59	open	—	05-06 01:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	14	$51	62	36	+26	open	—	05-05 18:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET	10	$50	70	20	+50	open	—	05-06 02:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	12	$48	61	41	+20	open	—	05-05 19:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	11	$46	65	23	+42	Down	+$12	05-05 01:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	6	$45	54	0	+54	open	—	05-06 03:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3PM ET	12	$44	39	39	+0	open	—	05-05 19:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	13	$40	59	33	+26	open	—	05-05 18:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9PM ET	10	$38	36	32	+4	Up	$-4	05-05 01:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	7	$36	59	24	+35	open	—	05-05 21:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	12	$35	34	52	-18	open	—	05-05 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	5	$33	41	5	+36	Up	$-0	05-04 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	5	$31	42	6	+36	open	—	05-06 03:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	9	$30	100	6	+94	open	—	05-05 19:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	5	$30	121	21	+100	open	—	05-06 03:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	3	$30	31	23	+8	open	—	05-05 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4PM ET	7	$30	40	8	+32	open	—	05-05 20:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	6	$26	39	5	+34	open	—	05-05 19:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	10	$26	73	23	+50	open	—	05-06 03:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10AM ET	7	$25	37	14	+24	open	—	05-05 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	4	$24	35	5	+30	open	—	05-06 01:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8PM ET	5	$23	38	0	+38	Up	$-3	05-05 00:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	10	$23	98	47	+50	open	—	05-06 02:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	6	$22	30	6	+24	open	—	05-05 22:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 04:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x2001fe…
05-06 04:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0xf3801d…
05-06 04:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x35de87…
05-06 04:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0cd0e1…
05-06 04:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	96¢	$7	0xfa241f…
05-06 04:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x297492…
05-06 04:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0x21286d…
05-06 04:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x77e415…
05-06 04:09:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xd517ac…
05-06 03:59:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x278e8b…
05-06 03:59:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x350f01…
05-06 03:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x82e315…
05-06 03:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xd150d6…
05-06 03:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x9372e3…
05-06 03:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0x1ebfff…
05-06 03:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0x04f6cd…
05-06 03:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x7cb7bb…
05-06 03:34:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x4a46fd…
05-06 03:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0x65b8f2…
05-06 03:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	17	10¢	$2	0xdffd28…
05-06 03:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	15	10¢	$1	0x084090…
05-06 03:29:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	Down	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xf13c6d…
05-06 03:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	Down	SELL	12	9¢	$1	0x916f16…
05-06 03:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xfa378e…
05-06 03:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x5309c3…
05-06 03:24:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x2d4b54…
05-06 03:23:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	12	10¢	$1	0x6fd823…
05-06 03:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0xfb17bb…
05-06 03:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x681645…
05-06 03:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x3b84dd…
05-06 03:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xa80561…
05-06 03:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0x55944d…
05-06 03:14:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x2e4ded…
05-06 03:14:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xebf6de…
05-06 03:14:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd17555…
05-06 03:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	Down	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0x9c91ef…
05-06 03:14:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x9bef15…
05-06 03:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x105fc9…
05-06 03:05:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x09fd46…
05-06 02:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7f5fdf…
05-06 02:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x06c80f…
05-06 02:58:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x5018f5…
05-06 02:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xabd242…
05-06 02:49:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xeced89…
05-06 02:49:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	7	24¢	$2	0x47d370…
05-06 02:44:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0xb3d4b4…
05-06 02:44:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	68	2¢	$1	0x94e7de…
05-06 02:44:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	SELL	68	98¢	$66	0x3c56a9…
05-06 02:44:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0x71b6b5…
05-06 02:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	24	5¢	$1	0x953cad…
05-06 02:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET	Down	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x9980cc…
05-06 02:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xa2f265…
05-06 02:43:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x9210d1…
05-06 02:38:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0x77a978…
05-06 02:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x0073c6…
05-06 02:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x530115…
05-06 02:24:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	73¢	$7	0xf761ac…
05-06 02:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xbb71ee…
05-06 02:24:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	7	31¢	$2	0x5ade0c…
05-06 02:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	70¢	$5	0x569105…
05-06 02:14:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET	Down	SELL	8	69¢	$6	0xb712f7…
05-06 02:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x317c05…
05-06 02:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET	Up	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0xba39c5…
05-06 02:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	16	8¢	$1	0xd8f918…
05-06 02:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	8¢	$1	0xa15658…
05-06 02:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xe8f378…
05-06 02:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x10b34a…
05-06 02:09:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xbf6ca3…
05-06 02:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x1e77a8…
05-06 02:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	25	6¢	$2	0xe3d3c6…
05-06 02:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x53f3b6…
05-06 02:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0xd749c3…
05-06 02:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	7	77¢	$5	0xfaa867…
05-06 02:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x1c4def…
05-06 01:54:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0xbd86f4…
05-06 01:54:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x8a5760…
05-06 01:54:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	9¢	$1	0xa6f968…
05-06 01:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xffee60…
05-06 01:39:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xe9154b…
05-06 01:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x734fee…
05-06 01:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x412f6f…
05-06 01:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xebd9f5…
05-06 01:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x0a4f8b…
05-06 01:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x9d8ef0…
05-06 01:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x6312be…
05-06 01:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xad761a…
05-06 01:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x610c34…
05-06 01:19:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	13	11¢	$1	0xd45436…
05-06 01:19:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x05c15f…
05-06 01:19:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	17	10¢	$2	0x1a00a9…
05-06 01:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xad933b…
05-06 01:19:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x17b068…
05-06 01:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x98c868…
05-06 01:18:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	19	9¢	$2	0xfcf921…
05-06 01:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0xf52fbd…
05-06 01:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xd5c639…
05-06 01:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	SELL	7	25¢	$2	0x683e44…
05-06 00:54:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x61e3a9…
05-06 00:54:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x67e126…
05-06 00:54:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x57d8eb…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	81	$20.6K	674	05-06 04:14
Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4	71	$19.3K	435	05-06 04:09
Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08	65	$1.73K	438	05-06 04:10
Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc	58	$12.3K	455	05-06 04:14
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	53	$2.07K	185	05-06 04:04
Exalted-Mattress 0xa8cc…41a9	53	$633	180	05-06 04:14
Dry-Solvency 0x5d3c…c298	49	$563	156	05-06 04:14
Lawful-Nightlife-Sleet 0x6c6a…4fd2	48	$515	160	05-06 04:14