Usable-Porcelain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.99K

Unrealized P&L

+$3.59K

Hit rate

74.7%

Resolved

119

Trades

1,402

lifetime

Volume

$428.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$306

Open exposure

$24.1K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-02 21:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Other

49% 67% +$18,411

Politics

43% 55% -$25,459

Sports

6% 75% +$2,432

Crypto

2% 50% +$2,626

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+11,692	$6,683	92¢	$10.7K	+$4,016	10-03 05:20
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	-7,771	-$6,915	97¢	$-7522	-$607	08-01 09:04
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	+4,932	$2,050	46¢	$2.3K	+$218	11-01 14:39
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+1,000	$860	96¢	$958	+$98	10-21 18:38
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+1,000	$920	94¢	$945	+$25	10-23 18:42
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	-889	-$783	97¢	$-860	-$78	06-16 18:20
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+999	$734	74¢	$744	+$10	11-02 21:32
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	+1,203	$132	3¢	$39	-$94	07-13 04:48
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$18	2¢	$20	+$2	10-23 00:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	13	$36.6K	19,022	19,022	+0	No	+$1,402	05-31 20:11
will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	108	$20.2K	12,654	12,654	+0	No	+$2,108	07-04 05:29
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	49	$18.9K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$890	06-21 16:05
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	2	$15.9K	19,475	0	+19,475	No	+$3,613	04-03 10:25
will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026 715	21	$15.1K	18,388	0	+18,388	No	+$3,304	08-06 05:55
will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	11	$14.3K	16,023	0	+16,023	Yes	-$14,277	07-01 09:10
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	31	$13.1K	14,794	0	+14,794	No	+$1,666	04-29 06:11
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	41	$12.6K	6,797	6,797	+0	No	-$6	05-08 19:20
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$10.1K	8,000	8,000	+0	Yes	+$160	03-25 19:03
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	22	$9.9K	7,650	7,650	+0	No	+$936	03-15 16:18
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	22	$9.7K	5,908	5,000	+908	No	+$319	05-29 15:20
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	37	$9.4K	10,000	10,000	+0	Yes	-$1,423	06-14 12:02
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	24	$9.3K	13,926	2,234	+11,692	open	—	10-03 05:20
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	21	$9.3K	14,111	0	+14,111	open	—	11-02 20:37
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	6	$9.2K	7,647	7,647	+0	No	+$2,646	06-27 13:38
will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	10	$8.8K	10,741	5,400	+5,341	No	+$6,232	03-23 15:35
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	19	$8.3K	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	-$8,300	06-03 14:08
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	19	$8.0K	10,682	0	+10,682	No	+$2,690	03-22 08:03
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	69	$7.8K	6,719	5,323	+1,396	No	+$2,065	07-26 11:21
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	29	$7.7K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$50	07-10 17:14
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	5	$7.7K	9,017	2,055	+6,962	Yes	-$449	04-24 20:26
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	23	$7.7K	5,739	2,470	+3,269	No	+$486	07-01 03:45
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	19	$7.0K	1,203	7,771	-6,568	open	—	08-01 09:04
will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	44	$6.8K	9,324	914	+8,410	Yes	-$2,960	07-17 20:32
will russia enter shevchenko by september 30	22	$6.8K	8,837	0	+8,837	Yes	-$311	07-11 17:15
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	18	$6.5K	9,251	9,251	+0	Yes	+$901	07-07 19:38
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	7	$5.8K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$222	07-01 03:42
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	75	$5.7K	4,423	3,120	+1,302	Yes	+$54	05-16 04:44
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?	14	$5.6K	0	5,772	-5,772	No	-$201	06-01 09:36
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	6	$5.0K	6,151	0	+6,151	No	+$1,201	05-12 19:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 21:32:49	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	500	77¢	$385	0xa63843…
11-02 20:37:30	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	27	66¢	$18	0xcc72d1…
11-02 20:37:30	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	4,575	69¢	$3,140	0x0a5f69…
11-02 20:26:13	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	16	66¢	$11	0xc3d995…
11-02 20:25:52	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	40	66¢	$27	0x255bbd…
11-02 18:56:48	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	4	66¢	$3	0x156a34…
11-02 17:56:46	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	34	66¢	$22	0x5c52b4…
11-02 17:56:46	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x3bf616…
11-01 19:19:54	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	123	74¢	$91	0xe5f493…
11-01 19:19:54	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xdda0eb…
11-01 18:01:09	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	499	70¢	$349	0xe9fa0e…
11-01 14:39:01	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	700	44¢	$308	0x0125a4…
11-01 14:37:52	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	3,615	68¢	$2,457	0x48c8d3…
11-01 06:55:39	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by November 30?	No	BUY	1,062	10¢	$101	0x558449…
11-01 06:09:36	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by November 30?	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xebf296…
11-01 06:07:25	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	1,670	48¢	$809	0x1ce7ea…
11-01 06:06:21	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	46	43¢	$20	0xc3a42c…
11-01 06:06:09	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	99	43¢	$43	0xf5c957…
11-01 06:05:36	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	557	43¢	$239	0x8f3103…
11-01 06:04:57	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2,044	66¢	$1,346	0x696468…
10-28 20:22:43	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2,274	66¢	$1,495	0x8a541f…
10-27 18:56:45	Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham by October 31?	No	SELL	25	1¢	$0	0xe81c2c…
10-27 04:17:05	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	162	46¢	$75	0x1fbb1a…
10-27 04:16:38	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	170	45¢	$76	0x3c060c…
10-26 20:36:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	714	93¢	$661	0x2f9066…
10-26 20:34:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x1b8b84…
10-26 20:32:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	73	93¢	$68	0x90b0ca…
10-26 20:32:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xd77a54…
10-26 20:32:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xf102a2…
10-26 20:31:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	107	93¢	$99	0xadc46f…
10-26 20:25:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x000fd3…
10-26 19:45:29	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	32	52¢	$17	0xc898e9…
10-26 08:07:39	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	112	52¢	$58	0xb37650…
10-26 05:19:06	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	967	52¢	$503	0x2a0752…
10-25 20:44:06	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x8855e0…
10-25 20:42:56	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0xc54c01…
10-25 18:15:03	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,989	97¢	$1,921	0x0fb1fc…
10-24 10:33:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	No	SELL	245	16¢	$39	0x347041…
10-24 10:31:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	No	SELL	255	16¢	$41	0x48c2fd…
10-24 07:50:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	No	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x229dd6…
10-23 20:33:20	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	300	41¢	$123	0x4b0e53…
10-23 18:42:35	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0xdedb01…
10-23 13:01:51	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x16fe78…
10-23 08:44:41	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	300	41¢	$123	0xe9fa32…
10-23 07:12:44	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	65¢	$325	0xeb5dbe…
10-23 05:08:02	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	300	41¢	$123	0x703354…
10-23 00:19:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$18	0x6e32c8…
10-22 13:27:47	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	200	41¢	$82	0x9c1de9…
10-22 13:27:35	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	300	41¢	$123	0x0ad1e6…
10-22 12:53:14	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	28	41¢	$11	0x7b789e…
10-21 18:38:50	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,000	86¢	$860	0xf8e3c5…
10-21 16:36:44	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	200	41¢	$82	0xda86f8…
10-21 13:27:18	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	173	12¢	$21	0x2a84a6…
10-21 10:48:41	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	915	34¢	$314	0xb91167…
10-21 07:42:24	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	3,000	36¢	$1,080	0x9d373d…
10-20 20:23:06	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	12¢	$18	0xfcd110…
10-20 07:31:05	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xeaea35…
10-20 03:24:33	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	12¢	$36	0x67f01a…
10-20 03:24:24	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	12¢	$4	0x618c75…
10-19 18:37:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	1,000	20¢	$200	0xf37d1f…
10-19 07:38:41	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	306	12¢	$37	0x0a662c…
10-19 04:32:23	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0xafe5d9…
10-19 04:32:20	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xa6b8d6…
10-18 16:26:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	212	13¢	$28	0x8020a0…
10-18 01:24:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0xa4380b…
10-17 18:26:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	298	13¢	$39	0xd3123f…
10-17 17:25:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	90	13¢	$12	0x8405e9…
10-17 16:25:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0x16ec05…
10-16 13:56:33	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	28	41¢	$11	0xaa4053…
10-14 06:17:02	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	48	41¢	$20	0x5731b7…
10-13 18:25:30	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	1,654	41¢	$672	0x5fb2c6…
10-12 23:05:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	357	19¢	$68	0xbc54f5…
10-12 22:43:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	592	19¢	$113	0x299441…
10-12 22:43:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xe92e94…
10-12 22:36:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x517471…
10-12 22:06:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x525342…
10-12 21:59:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0xd7127c…
10-12 21:41:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0xeb2bb2…
10-08 10:40:30	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	467	50¢	$234	0x865b6a…
10-08 04:24:22	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	3,000	30¢	$900	0x686bef…
10-08 01:43:41	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xe29e08…
10-08 01:43:34	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x5f42eb…
10-08 01:43:32	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xaf5daa…
10-08 01:43:32	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x675ad6…
10-07 21:14:53	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	222	50¢	$111	0xe1dc1f…
10-07 21:14:41	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	222	50¢	$111	0x5ec84a…
10-07 21:14:23	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x731bde…
10-07 21:14:20	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	102	50¢	$51	0x263c63…
10-07 17:12:05	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xd14d77…
10-07 17:12:05	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	39	50¢	$19	0x1e7acc…
10-06 11:02:52	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman by October 31?	No	BUY	959	27¢	$259	0xa0e912…
10-05 17:18:34	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,119	59¢	$2,432	0x230c8c…
10-05 13:40:32	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman by October 31?	No	BUY	13	27¢	$3	0x4c7c52…
10-05 05:36:52	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,809	89¢	$4,281	0x22f8ac…
10-04 18:46:59	will russia capture the royal cafe alex in kostyantynivka by march 31 2027	No	BUY	287	30¢	$86	0xbfd7fd…
10-04 07:04:46	Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham by October 31?	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x1f53fc…
10-04 07:04:44	Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham by October 31?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x43f1c5…
10-04 07:04:02	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman by October 31?	No	BUY	28	27¢	$8	0xc4a9f0…
10-04 05:57:37	Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,120	100¢	$1,119	0xfd140f…
10-03 05:20:12	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,647	79¢	$1,301	0x33eb99…