Verifiable-Orchard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.22K

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

57.5%

Resolved

1,818

Trades

10,373

lifetime

Volume

$53.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$47

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-16

last 10-27 20:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 217 days

Categories

Other

84% 27% +$1,377

Politics

9% 50% -$257

Sports

7% 56% +$107

Crypto

0% 50% -$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 220 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+100	$52	34¢	$33	-$18	08-21 19:22
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+50	$10	14¢	$7	-$3	10-19 16:15
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-300	-$6	2¢	$-6	$0	06-05 15:48
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-200	-$1	0¢	$-0	+$1	06-05 15:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
another us government shutdown by february 14	26	$2.5K	1,848	1,848	+0	No	+$56	02-13 06:34
will the united states win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	12	$1.4K	716	716	+0	No	+$34	02-18 04:54
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	12	$1.2K	888	888	+0	Yes	-$178	02-28 07:46
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29?	35	$1.2K	935	855	+80	Yes	+$21	06-29 07:02
spx opens up or down on february 6 2026	32	$1.1K	1,294	1,344	-50	Up	-$462	02-06 14:19
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	2	$842	424	424	+0	Seahawks	+$5	02-09 03:04
spx opens up or down on march 2 2026	18	$742	1,006	206	+800	Down	+$54	03-02 06:42
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	6	$723	387	387	+0	No	+$19	02-21 05:03
lal mad bet 2026 02 08 total 2pt5	2	$680	358	358	+0	Under	+$35	02-08 20:30
epl sun liv 2026 02 11 sun	3	$634	324	324	+0	No	+$11	02-11 22:09
epl cry bur 2026 02 11 bur	2	$592	312	312	+0	Yes	+$31	02-11 21:35
epl ast bri 2026 02 11 ast	2	$544	284	284	+0	Yes	+$18	02-11 21:26
ndx up or down on march 11 2026	7	$496	509	0	+509	Up	+$14	03-11 20:01
spx opens up or down on february 9 2026	4	$465	289	289	+0	Down	-$35	02-09 14:22
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 360 379	3	$446	400	417	-17	Yes	+$371	02-24 16:54
lal elc osa 2026 02 13 total 3pt5	3	$414	214	214	+0	Under	+$14	02-13 23:02
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$410	216	216	+0	Yes	+$10	02-24 03:46
lal elc osa 2026 02 13 total 4pt5	2	$403	203	203	+0	Under	+$3	02-13 23:02
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 17?	13	$396	882	383	+499	Yes	+$862	07-17 21:57
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	3	$391	272	172	+100	No	+$2	02-27 20:46
nba lac was 2026 01 19 total 225pt5	2	$359	183	183	+0	Under	+$4	01-19 22:41
us strikes iran by february 11 2026 664	2	$320	165	165	+0	No	$0	02-10 05:39
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 22?	21	$311	528	158	+370	No	+$111	05-22 19:20
spx up or down on march 2 2026	13	$301	520	220	+300	Up	-$57	03-02 21:00
ucl new1 qar1 2026 02 24 new1	4	$299	173	173	+0	Yes	+$1	02-24 21:30
spx up or down on february 11 2026	13	$298	335	335	+0	Down	-$143	02-11 21:00
highest temperature in shanghai on march 28 2026 21c	11	$294	235	260	-25	Yes	+$197	03-28 07:38
spx opens up or down on february 26 2026	7	$290	281	281	-0	Down	+$271	02-26 16:10
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	3	$285	150	150	+0	Yes	+$15	02-19 14:11
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12?	26	$279	515	336	+179	Yes	+$364	06-12 22:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:53:08	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x902b8f…
10-27 20:32:30	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	12	4¢	$0	0x3baf99…
10-27 20:10:53	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0xf868d5…
10-27 20:10:53	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	21	95¢	$20	0x5cdcd8…
10-27 20:08:45	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xf794d3…
10-27 20:07:54	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xc19f1b…
10-27 19:47:48	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x70c166…
10-27 19:47:41	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x93d22e…
10-27 19:31:59	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	26	11¢	$3	0x296010…
10-27 19:31:47	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	29	32¢	$9	0x755359…
10-27 19:26:32	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x782651…
10-27 19:22:05	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x36e423…
10-27 19:07:03	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0x426307…
10-27 19:06:17	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x08e971…
10-27 19:05:14	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x7e73c6…
10-27 19:02:41	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x44b8f1…
10-27 18:56:47	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xeddc2b…
10-27 18:56:47	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x3648a8…
10-27 18:49:53	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0xb4fadf…
10-27 17:30:05	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xbf67c4…
10-27 17:22:44	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x876e35…
10-27 17:22:41	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x640707…
10-27 17:22:33	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x934d87…
10-27 17:12:54	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	34	5¢	$2	0xae9250…
10-27 17:12:54	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x9105ce…
10-27 17:07:35	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x9b495f…
10-27 17:05:02	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x8369f3…
10-27 17:04:23	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x3130e6…
10-27 17:02:50	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xc1876a…
10-27 17:02:09	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x68fbd1…
10-27 17:02:09	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x5a647a…
10-27 16:57:57	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x97b773…
10-27 16:57:56	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x4c735a…
10-27 16:56:27	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0xb9add9…
10-27 16:29:57	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	292	1¢	$2	0x3ffc9a…
10-26 20:25:53	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x7a6fb1…
10-26 20:21:26	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0x5c6f4e…
10-26 20:21:26	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x3c4f2c…
10-26 20:20:57	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xbb9813…
10-26 20:20:57	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x1bee50…
10-26 20:20:33	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x38e448…
10-26 20:20:32	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xcd00a7…
10-26 20:13:00	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0x00a637…
10-26 20:09:09	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0xb01fd9…
10-26 20:07:59	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0x1fb7d2…
10-26 20:07:29	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	4	6¢	$0	0xbfffbb…
10-26 20:06:00	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xba9894…
10-26 20:06:00	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x07dda1…
10-26 20:02:54	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	53	0¢	$0	0xe3cd34…
10-26 20:02:35	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	15	6¢	$1	0x4309d3…
10-26 20:01:18	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	42	0¢	$0	0xbb6c82…
10-26 20:01:02	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xd2b5ee…
10-26 20:01:02	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xcff7ca…
10-26 20:00:26	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xd3cb1b…
10-26 20:00:26	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xbe1afc…
10-26 19:57:35	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xb23588…
10-26 19:57:35	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x80088b…
10-26 19:57:35	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x53fd6f…
10-26 19:57:33	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xded323…
10-26 19:57:29	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xf97f35…
10-26 19:57:29	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xf23712…
10-26 19:57:29	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xbb85ad…
10-26 19:57:29	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xbae188…
10-26 19:57:29	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x70ad6a…
10-26 19:57:29	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x4d67ce…
10-26 19:57:02	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xfa130e…
10-26 19:57:00	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xeb332f…
10-26 19:57:00	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x8d65a3…
10-26 19:57:00	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x85eafd…
10-26 19:38:27	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	27	2¢	$0	0x2d1167…
10-26 19:15:32	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x3d21f7…
10-26 19:13:23	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x80dfe8…
10-26 19:04:47	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xe2747f…
10-26 19:04:47	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xe0d17f…
10-26 19:04:47	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x9ac10b…
10-26 19:04:47	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x8a7a49…
10-26 19:04:44	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0xd12b8c…
10-26 19:04:44	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xc17d3d…
10-26 19:04:44	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x4d674e…
10-26 18:54:21	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xf0157b…
10-26 18:47:32	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0x08a6d8…
10-26 18:24:53	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	223	0¢	$1	0xbe0781…
10-26 18:19:48	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	26	28¢	$7	0x5aea50…
10-26 18:13:08	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xf1cdcb…
10-26 18:04:38	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x861ca3…
10-26 18:01:41	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	15	16¢	$2	0x32cf13…
10-26 18:01:23	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0x906cc8…
10-26 17:59:57	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x07dd42…
10-26 17:59:15	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x785c9f…
10-26 17:41:56	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xad38ab…
10-26 17:41:53	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x744ddb…
10-26 17:41:53	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x3a0c56…
10-26 17:37:35	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	23	1¢	$0	0xfce19b…
10-26 17:25:27	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xdf84c9…
10-26 17:25:27	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x7177da…
10-26 17:24:35	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x2cb51f…
10-26 17:08:47	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	23	1¢	$0	0x8b1c0b…
10-26 17:07:15	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xc612c8…
10-26 17:07:12	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0x3d2922…
10-26 16:58:27	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x08f6a2…