Near-Lie — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

86.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$300

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$11

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 11-06 04:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 100% +$2

Other

44% 70% +$6

Sports

2% 100% +$0

Politics

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No		+7	$6	97¢	$7	+$0	07-22 01:46
AI bubble burst in 2026?	No		+5	$4	92¢	$4	+$0	11-06 04:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Over $200M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	02-04 21:49
will bitcoin reach 82k february 9 15	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	02-12 02:06
bitcoin above 62k on february 19	1	$16	16	0	+16	Yes	+$0	02-19 15:31
will solana reach 170 in january 2026	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	01-29 20:25
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	01-29 23:43
will ethereum reach 2000 on july 21	1	$11	12	0	+12	No	+$0	07-21 19:06
megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	1	$11	11	0	+11	No	+$0	02-20 15:17
will ethereum reach 2400 in july 2026	3	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-28 06:19
Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03?	2	$8	23	0	+23	No	-$8	11-02 22:57
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	06-01 00:10
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	05-31 19:29
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	3	$8	5	5	+0	Yes	+$2	03-12 15:36
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08?	1	$7	14	0	+14	Yes	+$6	09-07 23:59
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-04?	2	$7	13	0	+13	Yes	+$6	11-04 08:35
USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	02-20 16:33
USD.AI FDV above $6B one day after launch?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	02-20 15:21
Will PSV win on 2026-09-10?	1	$7	10	0	+10	No	-$7	09-10 05:00
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-18?	1	$7	14	0	+14	No	-$7	08-18 05:22
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	1	$6	7	0	+7	open	—	07-22 01:46
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	2	$6	7	0	+7	No	+$0	02-26 18:48
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-09-04?	1	$6	10	0	+10	Yes	+$3	09-04 02:18
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-10?	1	$6	10	0	+10	No	-$6	10-10 05:30
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-12?	1	$6	12	0	+12	No	-$6	10-12 05:23
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	07-22 04:28
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10?	1	$5	7	0	+7	Yes	+$2	10-10 05:30
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-30?	1	$5	7	0	+7	Yes	+$1	10-30 02:07
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?	1	$5	9	0	+9	Yes	+$4	05-20 05:17
will solana reach 100 in july 2026	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	07-27 21:16
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-09-26?	1	$5	9	0	+9	Yes	+$4	09-30 16:46
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-08-22?	1	$5	10	0	+10	Yes	+$5	08-22 05:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 04:10:10	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$4	0x086a19…
11-04 08:54:12	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xce9d47…
11-04 08:35:19	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0x6f10fd…
11-04 05:54:19	Will Viking FK win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x43418a…
11-04 05:29:58	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x711cec…
11-02 22:57:40	Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03?	Yes	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0xf0fb35…
11-02 21:45:31	Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03?	Yes	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0x7f7505…
10-30 02:07:42	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0xdf4ef8…
10-12 05:23:02	Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	12	44¢	$6	0xa24f19…
10-10 05:30:31	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xe82037…
10-10 05:30:16	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x8bf39a…
09-30 16:46:39	Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-09-26?	Yes	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x226d9a…
09-10 05:00:22	Will PSV win on 2026-09-10?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xec5c27…
09-07 23:59:45	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08?	Yes	BUY	14	55¢	$7	0xfadfab…
09-04 02:18:27	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-09-04?	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x448543…
08-22 06:33:24	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x62d37c…
08-22 05:39:30	Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd37627…
08-18 05:22:58	Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-18?	Yes	BUY	14	48¢	$7	0xb8cae8…
07-28 11:09:29	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe86c46…
07-28 07:28:03	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb98f83…
07-28 06:58:39	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5dbef5…
07-28 06:57:33	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6df16e…
07-28 06:56:36	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x29c5bc…
07-28 06:54:58	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe5856d…
07-28 06:45:54	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc411eb…
07-28 06:19:51	will ethereum reach 2400 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6dc8e7…
07-28 05:47:28	will ethereum reach 2400 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd12822…
07-28 04:16:13	will ethereum reach 2400 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x827b6b…
07-27 21:16:55	will solana reach 100 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd8149b…
07-22 04:28:22	GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xca90cb…
07-22 01:46:01	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$6	0x149ef9…
07-21 19:06:39	will ethereum reach 2000 on july 21	No	BUY	12	98¢	$11	0xf49b9d…
07-15 15:45:53	will messi and ronaldo shake hands during world cup 20260609221211643	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x72bc47…
06-01 00:10:59	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x638d73…
05-31 19:29:42	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x94cc6c…
05-20 05:17:17	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?	Yes	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x523367…
05-11 18:06:34	Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xc804c0…
05-05 07:21:30	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	Yes	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xe1e106…
04-15 14:29:18	cs2 vit fal2 2026 04 15	Team Falcons	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0x810470…
04-07 18:33:57	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 bay1	Yes	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0xf5d023…
04-07 14:25:31	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 bay1	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xd19b12…
03-29 15:10:08	will ethereum dip to 1600 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcce766…
03-29 15:00:26	will ethereum dip to 1200 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7ca3d5…
03-27 20:55:21	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x611c73…
03-27 19:46:05	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x99a778…
03-12 15:36:49	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x8f102e…
03-10 18:31:53	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xa91b22…
03-10 12:23:21	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xcd0b30…
02-26 18:48:50	will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x1925fd…
02-26 13:50:46	will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xb10a04…
02-20 16:33:30	USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x136853…
02-20 15:21:30	USD.AI FDV above $6B one day after launch?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xe12a3b…
02-20 15:17:40	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x5d4c4d…
02-19 15:31:10	bitcoin above 62k on february 19	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xc79795…
02-12 02:06:57	will bitcoin reach 82k february 9 15	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x4e6813…
02-04 21:49:31	Over $200M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x46e4c1…
01-29 23:43:08	will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x625189…
01-29 20:25:46	will solana reach 170 in january 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xeb43e1…
01-07 02:44:29	epl eve wol 2026 01 07 wol	Yes	BUY	16	20¢	$3	0xe9ddd3…