Worse-Waterspout — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$341

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

35.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,051

lifetime

Volume

$96.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$47

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 06-01 13:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Politics

44% — —

Other

39% 21% $-1,078

Sports

15% 67% +$737

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 55 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	240	$8.6K	11,478	11,616	-138	open	—	03-06 11:18
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	29	$3.2K	1,996	2,012	-17	open	—	04-12 18:03
will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	20	$2.6K	1,218	1,730	-512	open	—	03-04 03:26
netanyahu out by march 31 854	20	$2.2K	1,148	1,148	+0	open	—	04-02 18:57
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	15	$2.0K	3,220	3,517	-298	open	—	02-27 14:36
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	22	$2.0K	1,885	200	+1,685	open	—	02-28 01:39
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	20	$2.0K	1,789	378	+1,412	open	—	03-01 00:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	24	$1.8K	1,433	1,622	-188	open	—	04-08 15:42
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	7	$1.7K	1,714	0	+1,714	open	—	02-21 22:53
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	8	$1.6K	847	847	+0	No	$-14	03-05 01:22
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	6	$1.3K	1,289	0	+1,289	open	—	03-05 13:34
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	23	$1.3K	975	1,631	-655	open	—	02-21 20:44
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	27	$1.2K	823	903	-80	open	—	04-17 06:57
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	20	$1.1K	1,650	1,210	+440	open	—	04-08 16:31
will annual inflation increase by 2pt1 in february 694 291 362 384	4	$1.0K	895	144	+751	open	—	03-11 01:29
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	20	$1.0K	550	550	+0	open	—	03-09 18:45
spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	13	$999	572	495	+77	open	—	02-18 14:28
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	8	$955	689	291	+398	open	—	03-29 12:31
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	35	$906	1,316	1,052	+264	open	—	03-04 03:48
will annual inflation increase by 2pt7 in february 876 736 952 866	29	$878	447	447	+0	open	—	03-11 10:46
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5	14	$873	1,934	100	+1,834	Under	$-790	05-06 13:25
will company k be accused of insider trading	8	$856	604	294	+310	open	—	02-26 10:02
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	11	$829	887	487	+400	open	—	03-29 20:20
will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	4	$825	442	442	+0	open	—	04-02 09:03
israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	12	$806	411	411	+0	open	—	03-30 08:57
spx up or down on february 20 2026	11	$801	433	433	+0	open	—	02-20 20:42
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	12	$798	984	0	+984	open	—	02-28 19:47
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	13	$784	2,514	1,152	+1,362	open	—	06-01 13:17
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	14	$760	424	424	-0	open	—	04-08 14:17
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	11	$727	519	217	+302	open	—	02-25 00:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 13:17:19	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	681	30¢	$201	0x820949…
06-01 13:14:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	471	29¢	$139	0xba0be5…
06-01 12:51:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x10f1aa…
06-01 12:45:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x20a6a1…
06-01 12:21:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	354	18¢	$64	0x5ededf…
06-01 12:21:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	18¢	$8	0x97ede5…
06-01 12:20:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	18¢	$53	0x554a34…
06-01 12:16:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	126	17¢	$21	0xe124f3…
06-01 12:16:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	66	17¢	$11	0xba8db8…
06-01 12:16:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	92	17¢	$16	0x91cbc6…
06-01 12:16:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,014	17¢	$173	0x90379b…
06-01 12:16:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	95	17¢	$16	0x59d8a0…
06-01 12:16:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	121	17¢	$20	0x4b02b0…
05-31 13:08:52	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	60	57¢	$34	0x93618b…
05-31 13:08:27	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	BUY	60	58¢	$35	0xc081b6…
05-18 22:31:42	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	13	57¢	$7	0x3012ad…
05-18 22:24:42	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0xa0a161…
05-18 22:24:02	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	17	57¢	$10	0xb46b1c…
05-18 21:46:42	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0xf96293…
05-18 21:31:21	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	36	57¢	$21	0x4d0958…
05-18 21:23:57	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	22	57¢	$13	0x8f087d…
05-18 21:10:56	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	52	57¢	$30	0x493ee6…
05-18 20:47:15	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x6a7686…
05-18 20:10:21	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	SELL	9	56¢	$5	0x190b6a…
05-18 20:08:36	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x556419…
05-18 20:07:56	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	SELL	90	56¢	$51	0xb1803d…
05-18 20:07:35	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	68	57¢	$39	0x847a75…
05-18 20:05:36	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	SELL	14	56¢	$8	0xdeffbe…
05-18 20:05:36	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	22	57¢	$13	0xd460c1…
05-18 20:03:56	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	14	57¢	$8	0xc566d2…
05-18 19:46:56	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	SELL	46	56¢	$25	0x6327bc…
05-18 19:45:55	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	46	57¢	$26	0xf20477…
05-18 19:09:55	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	SELL	23	56¢	$13	0x0f3648…
05-18 19:09:15	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	23	57¢	$13	0x58c9e5…
05-18 17:58:14	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	276	50¢	$138	0x986f9f…
05-18 17:34:14	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0x0f6fb9…
05-18 17:31:13	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x5d8e2c…
05-18 17:29:53	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	91	51¢	$47	0x923238…
05-18 17:28:13	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0x2f025f…
05-18 17:18:53	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	34	51¢	$17	0x6372e7…
05-18 17:18:53	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	27	51¢	$14	0x3c372b…
05-18 17:17:33	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	64	51¢	$33	0x4783e1…
05-18 17:15:32	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0xe277f9…
05-18 17:13:35	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	187	51¢	$95	0x47c219…
05-18 17:11:15	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	SELL	48	50¢	$24	0x8e2adf…
05-18 17:10:54	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	18	51¢	$9	0x38cf18…
05-18 17:10:52	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xc081ca…
05-18 17:10:52	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xace51f…
05-18 17:06:33	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	59	50¢	$29	0xfa7dd1…
05-18 16:02:11	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xa30817…
05-18 15:32:38	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	39	50¢	$20	0x717fe5…
05-18 15:19:37	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0xf45364…
05-18 15:16:39	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x099a8d…
05-18 15:15:39	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x8110af…
05-18 15:15:39	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0x49fd9d…
05-18 14:53:10	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	SELL	28	51¢	$14	0x7c86f6…
05-18 14:15:01	Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	BUY	493	61¢	$301	0xa15d63…
05-18 14:15:01	Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	BUY	107	61¢	$65	0x2b8bd8…
05-18 14:14:23	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0xb4c93b…
05-18 14:12:41	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xa481b1…
05-18 13:59:20	Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	426	42¢	$179	0xe95620…
05-18 13:35:02	Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Baltimore Orioles	SELL	63	41¢	$26	0xe48091…
05-18 13:34:41	Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	63	42¢	$26	0x0e3614…
05-18 12:37:01	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	SELL	30	49¢	$15	0xe01ace…
05-18 12:35:18	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xe3049a…
05-18 11:34:19	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x788dfe…
05-18 11:32:37	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf7fc4d…
05-18 11:31:59	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	SELL	102	49¢	$50	0xb84b04…
05-18 11:30:57	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	102	50¢	$51	0x4cdbdf…
05-18 10:38:17	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	28	51¢	$14	0x05435a…
05-17 23:43:57	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	300	63¢	$189	0xdf2bef…
05-17 23:19:36	San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	BUY	26	59¢	$15	0x337f13…
05-17 23:18:58	San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x66982b…
05-17 23:06:39	San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xd8562c…
05-17 23:02:17	San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0x0b0dad…
05-17 23:01:36	San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0xff8d3e…
05-17 23:00:56	San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	BUY	18	59¢	$10	0xe478b5…
05-17 23:00:25	San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	SELL	177	58¢	$103	0x2a1dc7…
05-17 22:59:57	San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	BUY	95	59¢	$56	0xaf95ca…
05-17 22:59:16	San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	BUY	82	59¢	$48	0x8c02ce…
05-13 20:46:05	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Cavaliers	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x5cb07c…
05-13 18:08:07	Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 4.5	Over	SELL	200	77¢	$154	0xe309b2…
05-13 18:07:04	Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x8134ad…
05-13 16:04:41	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	26	59¢	$15	0x532766…
05-13 16:03:00	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	37	59¢	$22	0x25a4c1…
05-13 16:02:21	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	37	59¢	$22	0xf1aca2…
05-13 15:56:00	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	57	59¢	$34	0x64dfb1…
05-13 15:54:39	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	211	59¢	$125	0x64d6db…
05-13 15:53:42	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xe73101…
05-13 15:50:01	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xf22ffc…
05-13 15:49:59	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	43	59¢	$25	0x4cd510…
05-13 15:49:23	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	SELL	101	58¢	$59	0x21a4f2…
05-13 15:48:41	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	54	59¢	$32	0xff153d…
05-13 15:48:41	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	21	59¢	$12	0x0cb227…
05-13 15:47:39	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0xffdb54…
05-13 15:47:03	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	SELL	149	58¢	$87	0xc99935…
05-13 15:47:01	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0x840d1c…
05-13 15:46:00	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xaf595c…
05-13 15:45:21	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	120	59¢	$71	0x7136aa…
05-13 15:45:19	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	19	59¢	$11	0x21b029…