Worse-Waterspout — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$915

Unrealized P&L

-$790

Hit rate

58.1%

Resolved

476

Trades

3,065

lifetime

Volume

$189.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$62

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-10

last 10-27 21:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 115 days

Categories

Politics

51% 42% +$421

Other

39% 34% -$1,526

Sports

9% 25% +$748

Crypto

1% 67% +$1,305

Tech

1% 12% -$33

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 182 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+0	$790	54¢	$0	-$790	10-27 21:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	216	$42.6K	24,580	27,863	-3,283	No	+$2,147	10-25 23:35
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	240	$8.6K	11,478	11,616	-138	Yes	-$83	03-06 11:18
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	53	$7.0K	4,994	4,994	+0	open	—	10-27 21:20
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	29	$3.2K	1,996	2,012	-17	No	-$24	04-12 18:03
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	4	$2.8K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$3	10-26 15:47
will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	20	$2.6K	1,218	1,730	-512	No	+$121	03-04 03:26
netanyahu out by march 31 854	20	$2.2K	1,148	1,148	+0	No	+$55	04-02 18:57
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	3	$2.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$5	10-26 15:47
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	15	$2.0K	3,220	3,517	-298	Yes	-$1,917	02-27 14:36
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	22	$2.0K	1,885	200	+1,685	No	+$55	02-28 01:39
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	20	$2.0K	1,789	378	+1,412	Yes	+$33	03-01 00:13
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	44	$1.9K	1,524	914	+609	Mbappé	+$130	10-26 19:03
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	24	$1.8K	1,433	1,622	-188	Yes	-$29	04-08 15:42
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	17	$1.8K	1,069	1,069	+0	No	+$166	06-12 06:57
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	7	$1.7K	1,714	0	+1,714	No	+$20	02-21 22:53
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	8	$1.6K	847	847	+0	No	-$14	03-05 01:22
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	16	$1.3K	1,977	1,977	+0	Yes	-$11	10-25 23:35
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	6	$1.3K	1,289	0	+1,289	No	+$15	03-05 13:34
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	23	$1.3K	975	1,631	-655	Yes	-$259	02-21 20:44
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$1.2K	606	606	+0	No	-$4	06-19 19:28
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	27	$1.2K	823	903	-80	No	+$31	04-17 06:57
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	20	$1.1K	1,650	1,210	+440	Yes	+$188	04-08 16:31
will annual inflation increase by 2pt1 in february 694 291 362 384	4	$1.0K	895	144	+751	No	+$11	03-11 01:29
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	20	$1.0K	550	550	+0	No	+$22	03-09 18:45
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?	16	$1.0K	993	993	-0	No	-$6	05-13 15:54
spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	13	$999	572	495	+77	Up	+$3	02-18 14:28
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	8	$955	689	291	+398	No	+$8	03-29 12:31
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	35	$906	1,316	1,052	+264	Yes	-$4	03-04 03:48
atp zandsch faria 2026 07 20	2	$880	2,000	0	+2,000	Jaime Faria	-$880	07-21 05:26
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-07-17?	1	$880	1,600	0	+1,600	Yes	-$880	07-18 01:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 21:20:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2,282	62¢	$1,415	0xf3c607…
10-27 21:19:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	119	62¢	$74	0x643aec…
10-27 21:19:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	685	62¢	$424	0x1b59a0…
10-27 21:19:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0xc26c75…
10-27 21:19:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	62¢	$0	0x90077c…
10-27 21:19:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$13	0x864bb5…
10-27 21:19:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	13	62¢	$8	0x7ee9ae…
10-27 21:19:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x63c373…
10-27 21:19:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	249	62¢	$154	0x4664ab…
10-27 21:19:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	14	62¢	$9	0x395190…
10-27 21:19:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x291876…
10-27 21:19:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xcdbf0c…
10-27 21:19:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	442	62¢	$274	0x2e8818…
10-27 21:19:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0xaf6dd1…
10-27 21:19:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0xd9e1b1…
10-27 21:19:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	515	62¢	$319	0xa4df3d…
10-27 21:19:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	62¢	$0	0x8d512b…
10-27 21:19:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	384	62¢	$238	0x0b0ec0…
10-27 21:19:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	36	62¢	$23	0xf7c6f9…
10-27 21:19:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0xa1fd5d…
10-27 21:19:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	62¢	$0	0x4a90a3…
10-27 21:19:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	58	62¢	$36	0x6b8c01…
10-27 21:19:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	42	62¢	$26	0x015195…
10-27 21:18:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0xc08d06…
10-27 21:18:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	90	61¢	$55	0xb8e4f3…
10-27 21:18:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	61¢	$1	0xbf070d…
10-27 21:18:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	61¢	$1	0x0f2e31…
10-27 21:18:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0xcdbcda…
10-27 21:18:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0xb82815…
10-27 21:18:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0xb0a7db…
10-27 21:18:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0x9b2c7b…
10-27 21:18:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x959cba…
10-27 21:18:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x90fef2…
10-27 21:18:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x61d9ff…
10-27 21:18:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x266fa5…
10-27 20:06:09	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	502	6¢	$30	0x17f636…
10-27 20:04:53	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	102	8¢	$8	0xf5797a…
10-27 20:04:53	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	124	8¢	$10	0x6ffdc2…
10-27 20:04:51	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	276	8¢	$22	0xf25dcb…
10-27 20:03:50	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	302	7¢	$21	0xba9b5d…
10-27 20:02:29	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	302	9¢	$27	0xa902b0…
10-27 19:02:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	35	74¢	$26	0xcbb6cc…
10-27 19:02:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0xa24190…
10-27 19:02:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0x24aca5…
10-27 19:02:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0x20ec0f…
10-27 19:02:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x0ba8aa…
10-27 19:02:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	13	74¢	$9	0xb1156d…
10-27 19:02:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0xdd0cc9…
10-27 19:02:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0x6faeca…
10-27 19:02:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	38	74¢	$28	0x20b7c8…
10-27 19:02:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0xb44710…
10-27 19:02:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x9f5fad…
10-27 19:02:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,000	75¢	$750	0x7becd0…
10-27 19:02:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0x5337bb…
10-27 17:34:45	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	500	78¢	$390	0x8e4b05…
10-27 16:52:45	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	97	73¢	$71	0xf9c26f…
10-27 16:51:23	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	50	73¢	$37	0x82803e…
10-27 16:51:21	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	47	73¢	$34	0x0ffddf…
10-27 16:41:05	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	300	72¢	$216	0x132b20…
10-27 16:40:36	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	300	73¢	$219	0x7d6f9d…
10-27 16:06:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	983	80¢	$786	0x6f721c…
10-27 16:06:45	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	517	80¢	$414	0x54f77e…
10-27 16:06:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,000	81¢	$810	0x9c810e…
10-26 19:03:11	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x0dd22d…
10-26 19:02:24	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	6	79¢	$4	0x18b381…
10-26 19:00:26	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	14	79¢	$11	0xe2f599…
10-26 19:00:20	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x3be1fb…
10-26 18:59:42	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	59	79¢	$47	0x51ca94…
10-26 18:17:44	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xf5e721…
10-26 18:17:30	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x326353…
10-26 18:17:08	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x2c8fe9…
10-26 18:08:53	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	105	79¢	$83	0x1c88be…
10-26 18:04:35	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x6a77f9…
10-26 18:04:29	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x82bdde…
10-26 18:03:03	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0x17874e…
10-26 17:19:36	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	70	77¢	$54	0x38cabf…
10-26 17:11:08	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	6	77¢	$4	0xcaa13e…
10-26 17:08:53	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0xb479a5…
10-26 17:08:53	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	83	77¢	$64	0x1995ac…
10-26 17:05:42	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	12	60¢	$7	0x1521e2…
10-26 17:04:51	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	12	61¢	$8	0x1fe3b4…
10-26 17:04:45	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	22	75¢	$16	0x4f7111…
10-26 17:01:14	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x3a2ecf…
10-26 16:59:30	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0xede65d…
10-26 16:58:21	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x7d1c11…
10-26 16:58:14	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x111b34…
10-26 16:57:36	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x143981…
10-26 16:56:23	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	17	75¢	$13	0x9063ef…
10-26 16:56:14	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xcffbd7…
10-26 16:55:09	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0x3dc786…
10-26 16:54:06	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x9bf472…
10-26 16:51:33	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	SELL	502	76¢	$382	0xca82a2…
10-26 16:49:51	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	502	77¢	$387	0xe1d22e…
10-26 16:49:14	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	SELL	30	78¢	$23	0x0ad468…
10-26 16:49:03	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0xd3ebe3…
10-26 16:35:53	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	SELL	20	78¢	$15	0x82fbb4…
10-26 16:35:24	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0xe9e872…
10-26 16:35:12	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xd58c4c…
10-26 16:35:02	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	7	79¢	$5	0x6aa47e…
10-26 16:32:57	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x3c7753…