Bite-Sized-Recovery — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

103

Trades

127

lifetime

Volume

$1.59K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$60

1 position

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-27 22:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Other

50% 99% +$6

Politics

37% 100% +$3

Crypto

11% 100% +$0

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+63	$56	95¢	$60	+$4	10-27 22:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$0	09-07 13:03
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	2	$112	56	56	+0	Yes	+$0	08-14 02:00
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	2	$112	61	61	+0	No	+$2	10-23 09:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$110	57	57	+0	No	+$0	08-26 16:40
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	5	$107	61	61	-0	open	—	10-20 22:21
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$60	60	0	+60	Yes	+$0	09-15 23:31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$60	60	0	+60	No	+$0	09-14 15:38
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?	2	$59	59	0	+59	Yes	+$0	09-03 16:41
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in August?	1	$57	57	0	+57	No	+$0	08-28 03:26
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$57	57	0	+57	No	+$0	08-22 01:22
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$56	57	0	+57	Yes	+$1	08-17 06:48
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$56	56	0	+56	No	+$0	08-14 04:29
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	1	$56	56	0	+56	No	+$0	08-08 02:05
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$56	63	0	+63	open	—	10-27 22:03
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$54	58	0	+58	No	+$4	08-04 22:25
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	1	$45	45	0	+45	Yes	+$0	09-23 09:51
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$44	22	22	+0	No	+$0	10-05 07:29
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	1	$32	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	10-05 00:20
will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	07-31 20:35
us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	2	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	10-01 00:32
will nvda dip to 168 in july 2026	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	07-31 19:14
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$14	7	7	+0	No	+$0	10-05 12:10
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	07-30 20:09
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	09-28 14:01
will solana dip to 60 in march 2026	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	03-31 01:23
will xauusd reach 4600 in june 2026	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	06-29 14:15
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	09-22 13:52
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$7	8	0	+8	No	+$0	02-26 19:52
will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	06-29 09:18
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April?	2	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	04-15 23:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 22:03:41	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	63	88¢	$56	0xa85251…
10-23 09:33:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	61	93¢	$57	0x4a5b4d…
10-21 22:42:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	61	90¢	$55	0x6f9ea9…
10-20 22:21:39	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	25	89¢	$23	0x2051df…
10-20 08:17:50	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	89¢	$27	0x527048…
10-18 09:58:42	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$5	0xd3c1df…
10-13 05:27:09	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	47	88¢	$41	0xf8cdea…
10-13 05:27:06	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0x232dfc…
10-05 12:10:56	Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x5c2020…
10-05 07:29:40	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x7dad26…
10-05 00:20:58	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xb57a97…
10-01 00:32:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xdd7af1…
09-30 19:05:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xf1f5af…
09-28 14:01:33	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x82f4af…
09-28 01:24:15	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x20d407…
09-24 18:20:36	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x49249e…
09-24 16:30:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4d3fd3…
09-23 09:51:44	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x18249e…
09-22 21:30:45	Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x76f353…
09-22 13:52:34	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x362de6…
09-15 23:31:03	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x7e5034…
09-14 15:38:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x01b9b0…
09-07 13:03:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x498113…
09-05 18:08:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	60	99¢	$60	0xb0d41d…
09-03 16:41:10	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	99¢	$56	0xc79b97…
09-03 16:38:09	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x74f2d0…
08-28 03:26:36	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in August?	No	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0x29d874…
08-26 16:40:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	57	96¢	$55	0x5e27a4…
08-23 23:29:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	57	96¢	$55	0x6a7503…
08-22 01:22:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0x347b92…
08-17 06:48:25	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	57	99¢	$56	0x3a0225…
08-14 04:29:37	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	56	99¢	$56	0xdb6f0b…
08-14 02:00:36	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0xf6860c…
08-12 07:21:24	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C or below on August 13?	Yes	BUY	71	0¢	$0	0x4b58ea…
08-12 07:21:12	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C or below on August 13?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x3a239f…
08-11 02:49:15	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	56	99¢	$56	0xddae5c…
08-08 02:05:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0xa5fc0f…
08-05 19:27:18	will wti reach 140 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd37d8d…
08-04 22:25:27	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	BUY	58	93¢	$54	0x4772ea…
07-31 20:35:09	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x63c418…
07-31 19:14:08	will nvda dip to 168 in july 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x0669c7…
07-30 20:09:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x2ed895…
07-30 16:44:23	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xfa53d2…
07-30 09:36:02	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x28846f…
07-29 08:41:14	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0aa8b0…
07-28 19:01:08	will bitcoin dip to 45k in july 2026 597	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4b63b5…
07-27 09:44:46	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x103015…
07-27 07:19:45	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc9cac0…
07-26 15:11:15	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc6295f…
07-25 12:56:03	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9479f6…
07-25 08:48:31	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd6227a…
07-25 01:34:13	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcf22f8…
07-22 22:34:37	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfd8098…
07-22 05:58:10	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x802771…
07-21 18:54:45	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9b7ca1…
06-29 14:15:01	will xauusd reach 4600 in june 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa10f7d…
06-29 09:52:37	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x141550…
06-29 09:18:26	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x559ff0…
06-28 07:23:25	will googl reach 390 in june 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x67e0c3…
06-27 21:17:20	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x862d13…
06-27 19:57:49	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x39dfb1…
06-27 16:21:31	Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xebf120…
05-13 23:51:53	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3b81d0…
05-12 07:42:57	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x49e5ef…
05-09 18:26:42	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x5dd0cc…
05-09 03:45:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1e3c06…
05-08 12:26:18	Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x001e28…
05-08 09:16:14	Will Solana reach $140 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9143b9…
05-06 01:56:52	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3c8835…
05-05 23:37:44	Will Solana dip to $40 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x968a36…
05-05 21:56:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x7f7a58…
05-05 19:40:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf506dd…
05-05 03:53:02	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xabea7f…
04-19 03:29:52	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3076dd…
04-19 01:23:44	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2121bb…
04-18 06:04:28	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xee31da…
04-17 13:54:12	Will Solana dip to $40 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x5bd81e…
04-15 23:02:36	Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x26bcfa…
04-15 03:24:12	Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0xcf1d03…
04-14 15:54:25	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x469c5e…
04-13 17:31:17	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x506caf…
04-13 05:56:25	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x42b758…
04-06 20:36:17	Will BNB reach $1,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf734c7…
04-05 20:14:21	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5c5cdc…
03-31 01:23:15	will solana dip to 60 in march 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x37bcb8…
03-29 03:14:34	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x03eb8c…
03-27 18:44:05	amzn above 230 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd2748f…
03-26 18:51:39	will ethena reach 0pt32 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x15e290…
03-25 08:35:29	will hyperliquid dip to 24 in march	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xb249c1…
03-23 08:33:11	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 113	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x99fb16…
03-22 06:14:21	aapl above 300 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5ae4aa…
03-20 15:09:47	nvda above 120 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3d83df…
03-19 14:20:21	will zai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x787a11…
03-18 17:11:21	will ethereum dip to 600 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x253c2f…
03-15 05:51:07	msft above 495 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5f0ff7…
03-13 21:10:51	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xced1a0…
03-12 21:32:51	will baidu have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x212f10…
03-11 06:35:13	bank of japan increases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x72ea27…
03-09 05:48:19	amzn above 270 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdea902…
03-08 22:03:25	will solana dip to 30 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf0061f…