Polite-Unemployment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

-$46

Hit rate

62.0%

Resolved

Trades

468

lifetime

Volume

$19.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-06 11:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

49% 100% +$81

Other

42% 33% $-93

Tech

7% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+100	$50	4¢	$4	$-46	05-31 18:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
si hit 85 high jan 2026 851 188 261	6	$851	277	971	-694	open	—	01-12 13:53
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	9	$722	996	996	+0	open	—	01-12 16:20
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	6	$551	200	485	-285	open	—	01-31 07:35
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	9	$449	243	243	+0	open	—	01-27 06:31
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	11	$391	244	244	+0	open	—	04-11 18:44
will mrbeast hit 470 million subscribers by march 31 822	10	$380	160	245	-85	open	—	01-24 16:02
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	8	$369	550	480	+70	open	—	01-16 19:21
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	6	$313	186	186	+0	open	—	03-30 21:44
will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	5	$295	612	0	+612	open	—	02-04 07:24
nothing ever happens microstrategy	17	$286	327	327	+0	open	—	03-08 11:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$275	175	175	+0	open	—	05-28 08:15
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	3	$273	171	171	+0	open	—	02-22 13:55
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	5	$273	161	161	+0	open	—	04-30 16:20
gc hit 4700 high jan 2026 398 168 413 627	10	$269	200	200	+0	open	—	01-21 08:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	5	$260	187	187	+0	open	—	04-08 09:06
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	3	$258	200	200	+0	open	—	04-25 16:14
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	5	$257	342	342	+0	open	—	03-08 09:36
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	3	$245	168	168	+0	open	—	04-24 14:25
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	3	$244	152	152	+0	open	—	04-08 11:35
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	9	$239	153	153	+0	No	+$37	04-08 10:42
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	9	$233	131	146	-15	open	—	03-29 17:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$232	159	159	+0	open	—	05-27 20:41
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	5	$227	150	150	+0	open	—	04-08 10:49
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	7	$224	153	153	+0	open	—	04-08 19:10
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$224	0	273	-273	open	—	02-05 17:48
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	6	$220	125	125	+0	open	—	03-11 19:27
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	7	$219	208	208	+0	open	—	03-10 17:58
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	6	$213	138	138	+0	open	—	04-09 02:10
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	6	$208	132	132	+0	open	—	02-19 19:53
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	7	$207	130	130	+0	open	—	04-15 20:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-06 11:31:25	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	110	53¢	$58	0x76df10…
07-03 15:03:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	130	44¢	$57	0xc60b2c…
07-02 09:56:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x13df73…
07-02 07:27:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x2eb449…
06-30 21:10:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x0b5ceb…
06-30 10:21:26	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xf47b69…
06-30 10:20:01	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	90	7¢	$6	0xdc23af…
06-29 21:32:58	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	86	62¢	$54	0x188e80…
06-29 19:58:40	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x70a5ca…
06-29 19:58:16	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x5cac6a…
06-29 19:58:02	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xf9b49a…
06-28 19:29:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	70	73¢	$51	0x02e549…
06-28 03:46:52	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0xa7145a…
06-27 21:13:53	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	SELL	100	72¢	$72	0x6bc650…
06-27 13:44:49	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	BUY	110	48¢	$53	0x70f4d7…
06-25 08:26:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xcacbaa…
06-25 08:26:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x86eeb2…
06-25 08:26:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x70284e…
06-25 08:26:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xa2ec40…
06-25 08:26:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x6034f8…
06-25 08:26:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xdf679c…
06-25 08:26:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x876c61…
06-25 08:26:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	29	33¢	$10	0x0b28b9…
06-25 08:23:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	65	36¢	$23	0x46c832…
06-24 09:56:52	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	70	96¢	$67	0xb3772b…
06-24 08:15:29	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	160	25¢	$40	0x6d2285…
06-23 15:11:05	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	110	58¢	$64	0x7f1bd4…
06-23 14:31:05	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	166	98¢	$164	0xa37452…
06-22 20:34:05	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	BUY	400	15¢	$60	0x6c02e1…
06-19 14:58:52	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	210	35¢	$74	0x5fc617…
06-18 17:39:26	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	185	32¢	$59	0xb0e982…
06-18 17:26:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x13c4c2…
06-17 17:32:58	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	92	30¢	$28	0x8f4640…
06-17 15:43:38	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	118	30¢	$35	0xa26b28…
06-12 10:46:21	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	170	44¢	$76	0x425c1b…
06-11 17:14:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0xa829ab…
06-10 21:41:43	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0xf01dad…
06-06 10:02:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0x703bcb…
06-05 21:04:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	170	30¢	$51	0x80f178…
06-04 21:06:58	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	90	67¢	$60	0x19a9bf…
06-04 21:06:09	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0x3e71a0…
06-03 20:08:42	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	Yes	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x1cf9b4…
06-01 19:01:48	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0xff4b1a…
05-31 20:18:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	164	70¢	$114	0xce1428…
05-31 18:05:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x03916d…
05-31 10:49:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xe8e2f9…
05-31 10:48:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x079d1a…
05-30 16:32:59	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	100	68¢	$68	0xd38ee1…
05-29 18:48:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	65¢	$65	0x36fced…
05-29 13:32:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	79¢	$71	0xb8e891…
05-28 17:04:38	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	140	29¢	$41	0x1a9a30…
05-28 08:15:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	175	100¢	$174	0xc0c4b3…
05-27 20:41:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	159	83¢	$132	0x073a58…
05-23 21:11:48	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	SELL	80	85¢	$68	0x5f19d3…
05-23 20:32:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	SELL	80	88¢	$70	0x3a9a68…
05-22 19:50:00	Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	Yes	SELL	98	46¢	$45	0x1544a5…
05-21 18:31:44	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	80	93¢	$74	0xf4bff7…
05-20 21:00:25	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	BUY	80	67¢	$54	0xe0fdd7…
05-20 18:27:05	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	96	73¢	$70	0xd7f010…
05-20 17:45:10	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x5a0888…
05-19 18:35:52	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x6ae54f…
05-18 20:26:10	Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	90	57¢	$51	0x8bd9cb…
05-18 20:25:42	Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x64cb0b…
05-13 15:46:19	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	BUY	80	64¢	$51	0xb83027…
05-12 16:10:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	80	63¢	$50	0x5d8e11…
05-11 18:33:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x5c28e0…
05-10 14:05:52	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	90	26¢	$23	0xb3e443…
05-09 15:08:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	66¢	$59	0xbaaab4…
05-07 14:15:31	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0x1a12e1…
05-06 15:22:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x12c683…
05-06 15:22:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0xcf9b1c…
05-06 15:21:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	67	54¢	$36	0xd98c10…
05-05 07:08:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x0978a3…
05-05 07:07:24	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	70	91¢	$64	0x73dda4…
04-30 19:40:46	U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0xd263f0…
04-30 19:03:22	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xcd2df7…
04-30 16:20:52	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	SELL	161	99¢	$160	0x52d38d…
04-30 14:25:22	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	86	98¢	$84	0x891064…
04-27 17:53:52	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	80	72¢	$58	0xa0ad5f…
04-26 16:23:48	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	102	51¢	$52	0x9b7760…
04-26 16:21:46	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xe3e6c3…
04-25 16:14:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0xfafbaf…
04-25 15:49:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	SELL	64	96¢	$61	0x6697cd…
04-24 20:49:40	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	70	74¢	$52	0x2bfff8…
04-24 14:25:14	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	168	94¢	$158	0xdd1f12…
04-24 13:16:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	90	58¢	$52	0x414a27…
04-24 11:45:22	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	70	91¢	$64	0xace83a…
04-23 21:36:28	deepseek v4 released by april 24	No	BUY	72	70¢	$50	0x89017c…
04-23 18:17:12	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	18	58¢	$10	0xd2742e…
04-23 18:17:06	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	72	57¢	$41	0x09065c…
04-23 16:36:00	Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xde59a4…
04-23 14:29:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	68¢	$50	0x0f1894…
04-23 14:28:12	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Yes	BUY	131	38¢	$50	0xd30b53…
04-22 21:06:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	45¢	$50	0x221ea6…
04-22 15:11:26	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	SELL	70	86¢	$60	0x368d33…
04-22 08:04:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0xcc0271…
04-20 21:20:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0xfa9b25…
04-18 14:00:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	70	76¢	$53	0x72e4d9…
04-18 13:18:56	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	BUY	86	62¢	$53	0xf49ec0…
04-16 18:12:06	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	35	70¢	$24	0x9719a8…