Courteous-Epoch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$74.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

92.7%

Resolved

132

Trades

234

lifetime

Volume

$69.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$296

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-01

last 10-15 20:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Politics

96% 37% +$74,914

Sports

2% 38% +$1

Other

1% 14% -$169

Crypto

1% 31% -$222

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No		+45	$12	14¢	$6	-$6	06-07 18:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	8	$45.1K	73,230	0	+73,230	Yes	+$28,177	02-27 21:41
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	2	$8.0K	28,318	0	+28,318	Yes	+$20,302	02-27 21:38
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	7	$6.4K	34,511	0	+34,511	Yes	+$28,148	02-27 21:36
iran closes its airspace by june 8	4	$3.6K	2,923	2,923	+0	Yes	+$1,290	06-07 20:49
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	4	$1.5K	3,261	0	+3,261	No	-$1,500	06-08 02:46
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	3	$1.0K	18,380	0	+18,380	No	-$1,020	02-27 21:36
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$357	4,152	4,152	+0	No	+$158	07-10 20:21
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$270	8,137	6,667	+1,471	No	-$30	07-05 08:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	4	$257	741	0	+741	No	-$257	05-04 16:10
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	4	$195	482	173	+308	No	-$95	07-05 16:08
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$178	3,874	3,874	+0	No	+$62	07-09 16:31
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$121	1,400	0	+1,400	No	-$121	02-20 23:03
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	1	$115	267	0	+267	Yes	+$152	07-01 00:30
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$110	2,422	0	+2,422	No	-$110	06-11 16:53
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$100	862	0	+862	No	-$100	06-11 16:59
will iran strike israel on march 8	1	$100	159	0	+159	Yes	+$59	03-07 00:01
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	2	$70	219	0	+219	Yes	-$70	08-02 01:54
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	3	$70	1,054	0	+1,054	Yes	-$70	03-08 17:04
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$65	2,811	0	+2,811	No	-$65	03-08 19:13
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$65	3,985	0	+3,985	No	-$65	03-08 19:13
iran leadership change by march 31	1	$60	176	0	+176	No	-$60	03-09 18:31
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	2	$60	354	0	+354	Yes	-$60	08-02 01:54
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	1	$57	1,500	0	+1,500	No	-$57	05-25 23:25
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	1	$50	109	0	+109	England	-$50	07-05 08:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 20:35 UTC	1	$50	120	0	+120	Down	-$50	03-09 20:35
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$48	65	65	+0	Yes	+$28	07-19 18:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 21:35 UTC	1	$44	90	0	+90	Up	-$44	03-09 21:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 21:25 UTC	1	$40	98	0	+98	Down	-$40	03-09 21:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 20:45 UTC	1	$40	95	0	+95	Down	+$55	03-09 20:45
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	1	$36	141	0	+141	No	-$36	07-19 19:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-15 20:43:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	No	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xea4f15…
10-15 16:35:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	121	12¢	$15	0xb65b1f…
10-15 16:34:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	103	10¢	$10	0x74e8b5…
10-15 16:34:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	No	BUY	357	3¢	$10	0xa95053…
09-29 02:45:20	Eagles vs. Bears	Eagles	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x102b8a…
08-02 01:54:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	109	32¢	$35	0xc4cf26…
08-02 01:54:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	148	17¢	$25	0x741372…
08-02 01:53:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	88	8¢	$7	0x8fa672…
08-02 01:43:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	109	32¢	$35	0x968bf9…
08-02 01:42:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	206	17¢	$35	0x2065ff…
07-19 19:08:27	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	BUY	141	25¢	$36	0x7956ea…
07-19 19:08:06	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	85	42¢	$36	0xfa7fd4…
07-19 18:18:55	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	323	3¢	$10	0x5544ea…
07-19 18:13:06	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	65	59¢	$38	0x402469…
07-10 20:23:44	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	99	35¢	$35	0x20d81e…
07-10 20:23:34	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	98	23¢	$23	0x3e23c4…
07-10 20:23:07	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	102	14¢	$14	0xb90d29…
07-10 20:21:31	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4,152	6¢	$257	0x720c91…
07-09 20:09:10	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	157	13¢	$20	0xee083c…
07-09 16:31:17	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	3,874	3¢	$120	0x7b9ed5…
07-05 16:08:44	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x12eb7c…
07-05 16:08:23	Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	48	31¢	$15	0x314148…
07-05 08:17:53	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	Mexico	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0xadb4d8…
07-05 08:17:05	Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	SELL	173	29¢	$50	0x512885…
07-05 08:14:17	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,471	3¢	$50	0xa4e8b9…
07-05 08:13:55	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	146	24¢	$35	0x5b5d22…
07-05 08:13:05	Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0xb429a2…
07-05 05:45:38	Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xbd69c9…
07-04 00:15:11	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	72	10¢	$7	0xde58d6…
07-03 23:23:07	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	294	3¢	$10	0xb2ca35…
07-03 05:50:58	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	159	22¢	$35	0x0dadf3…
07-03 05:50:19	Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x3c66ae…
07-03 05:50:10	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	73	41¢	$30	0x2a4567…
07-01 16:59:28	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xc8e8cf…
07-01 00:30:13	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	267	43¢	$115	0x1fb62b…
07-01 00:29:52	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6,667	2¢	$120	0xd0d6d1…
06-16 18:11:41	Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	21¢	$4	0xf2d0bc…
06-15 17:40:36	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xd7a10b…
06-14 23:07:45	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	13	52¢	$7	0x0db3b4…
06-14 17:27:19	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xcef5c8…
06-12 04:17:12	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xd81206…
06-12 04:16:48	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x2ca7db…
06-12 04:16:42	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xf757c4…
06-12 04:16:03	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x4e42df…
06-12 04:15:48	Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	88	6¢	$5	0x12609e…
06-11 19:03:13	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	48	69¢	$33	0x597203…
06-11 16:59:52	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3,874	2¢	$58	0xa52ec8…
06-11 16:59:36	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	862	12¢	$100	0x4c850f…
06-11 16:54:21	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	4,152	2¢	$100	0xb1f1d3…
06-11 16:53:51	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6,667	1¢	$100	0x191557…
06-11 16:53:43	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,128	5¢	$100	0x62d9a4…
06-08 02:46:40	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	2,045	49¢	$1,000	0x52c7cf…
06-08 01:40:25	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	358	56¢	$200	0xbc9787…
06-07 21:01:46	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0x6ffd14…
06-07 20:49:45	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	2,923	83¢	$2,424	0x59c998…
06-07 19:58:00	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	697	36¢	$250	0x6eb55a…
06-07 18:56:33	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	2,497	39¢	$984	0x80816b…
06-07 18:51:07	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	45	27¢	$12	0x2c99a4…
06-07 18:50:18	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	147	34¢	$50	0x3d7443…
06-07 18:48:34	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	279	36¢	$100	0x03fae3…
05-25 23:49:31	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	918	2¢	$20	0x21bb86…
05-25 23:25:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	1,500	4¢	$57	0x129755…
05-04 16:10:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	53	41¢	$22	0x3bbaec…
05-04 16:03:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0xdfa68a…
05-04 15:57:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0xe1aa06…
05-04 15:54:40	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	65	15¢	$10	0x5d4f70…
05-04 15:54:18	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	294	3¢	$10	0x1c9608…
05-04 15:53:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	587	34¢	$200	0x9a8cb9…
05-04 01:35:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x00125b…
05-03 20:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xaddfb9…
05-03 20:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x17bd9f…
05-03 20:40:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xb9b4bf…
05-03 20:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1e8b26…
05-03 20:36:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x08d16f…
05-03 20:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x518bea…
04-28 01:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x0696c6…
04-28 01:17:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x801404…
04-26 19:52:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x1ac017…
04-26 19:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	48¢	$2	0x3c87cc…
04-26 19:22:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xd171a5…
04-26 19:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x40dd02…
04-26 19:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x67e77c…
04-26 19:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x78352c…
04-26 19:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0x6220a9…
04-26 18:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x974c3e…
04-26 18:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0x6dad6d…
04-26 18:52:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xa88af5…
04-26 18:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x34e3c5…
04-26 18:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	24	25¢	$6	0xbcd594…
04-26 18:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x3d3906…
04-26 18:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0xefe233…
04-24 08:18:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x735c55…
04-24 08:15:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0x1c9863…
04-24 08:15:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0xc39b90…
04-24 08:14:02	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-24 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xc6c816…
04-24 08:13:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 08:10 UTC	Down	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x50f85e…
04-24 08:12:32	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-24 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0xb68ee7…
04-24 08:10:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 08:10 UTC	Up	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x883e6f…
04-24 08:09:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 08:05 UTC	Down	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xd613af…
04-24 08:08:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 08:05 UTC	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x1498eb…