Far-Plan — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$55

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

176

lifetime

Volume

$3.37K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$20

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 06-08 19:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Tech

67% — —

Other

30% 0% $-55

Politics

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic		-23	$-19	72¢	$-16	+$2	06-02 05:28
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes		-86	$-9	4¢	$-4	+$5	05-29 18:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520	10	$797	456	456	+0	open	—	06-05 21:22
will apple announce an apple smart home display during the wwdc 2026 keynote	9	$270	288	30	+258	open	—	06-08 18:31
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	8	$268	210	210	+0	open	—	06-07 10:36
will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510	3	$239	101	181	-80	open	—	06-06 07:31
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?	13	$223	567	550	+16	open	—	04-26 12:27
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	5	$207	106	105	+0	open	—	04-27 19:09
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	9	$166	210	210	+0	open	—	06-07 10:25
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	11	$119	634	0	+634	open	—	04-28 10:01
will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	7	$93	55	55	+0	open	—	06-06 07:27
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	4	$92	80	80	+0	open	—	05-24 06:39
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?	2	$90	45	45	+0	open	—	04-27 18:47
will apple announce a new product line during the wwdc 2026 keynote	5	$76	83	20	+63	open	—	06-08 19:05
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	9	$72	86	86	+0	open	—	05-24 15:51
will apple announce a standalone siri app during the wwdc 2026 keynote	3	$68	214	200	+14	open	—	06-08 18:29
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?	7	$59	99	5	+94	Yes	$-54	04-27 06:44
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 27?	4	$53	45	10	+35	open	—	04-27 20:27
will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500	4	$52	60	60	+0	open	—	06-05 17:45
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 27?	3	$49	25	25	+0	open	—	04-27 21:00
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 27?	2	$47	78	77	+2	open	—	04-27 19:45
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?	2	$46	83	83	+0	open	—	04-28 19:09
will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510	5	$31	24	24	+0	open	—	06-05 17:42
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	7	$27	144	144	+0	open	—	04-25 16:18
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	2	$27	5	28	-23	open	—	06-02 05:28
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?	6	$27	56	54	+2	open	—	04-27 07:28
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490?	4	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	04-27 18:18
will apple announce a homepod mini successor during the wwdc 2026 keynote	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	06-08 16:41
Will the next model released by DeepSeek debut at a score of at least 1460?	5	$20	509	4	+505	open	—	04-24 10:28
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 27?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-27 20:56
FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301?	3	$20	27	27	+0	open	—	05-24 16:03
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	1	$14	23	0	+23	open	—	04-27 04:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 19:05:48	will apple announce a new product line during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xf350ff…
06-08 18:31:13	will apple announce an apple smart home display during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x3ba3a4…
06-08 18:30:48	will apple announce a new product line during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0x45597c…
06-08 18:30:42	will apple announce a new product line during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xa5d299…
06-08 18:29:51	will apple announce a standalone siri app during the wwdc 2026 keynote	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x2c21f2…
06-08 18:29:43	will apple announce an ai charged siri during the wwdc 2026 keynote	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xba7927…
06-08 18:28:12	will apple announce a standalone siri app during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0x83b189…
06-08 16:41:58	will apple announce a homepod mini successor during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	23	90¢	$20	0x971941…
06-07 11:44:06	will apple announce an apple smart home display during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xd92bbe…
06-07 11:43:21	will apple announce an apple smart home display during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x1daa87…
06-07 11:41:48	will apple announce an apple smart home display during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	86	91¢	$78	0xd0d9ed…
06-07 11:41:36	will apple announce an apple smart home display during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	19	91¢	$17	0x73efb0…
06-07 11:15:09	will apple announce a standalone siri app during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0xdaa740…
06-07 11:02:24	will apple announce an apple smart home display during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x356c88…
06-07 10:58:13	will apple announce an apple smart home display during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x9e7f42…
06-07 10:36:36	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	SELL	40	61¢	$24	0x6ce0b1…
06-07 10:35:33	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	SELL	15	61¢	$9	0x5a5613…
06-07 10:35:31	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x3bc011…
06-07 10:29:46	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	SELL	15	61¢	$9	0xbe54c8…
06-07 10:25:03	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	196	37¢	$73	0xb7046a…
06-07 10:15:21	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x649355…
06-07 10:05:13	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0xea1d27…
06-07 09:55:00	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	SELL	8	61¢	$5	0x40f3c8…
06-07 09:52:43	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	SELL	107	61¢	$65	0x8c57fc…
06-07 09:50:13	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x267ec6…
06-07 09:46:58	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x275677…
06-07 09:45:25	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x81ef71…
06-07 09:35:12	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x806eec…
06-07 05:52:52	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xc8a6c3…
06-07 05:38:49	will apple announce a new product line during the wwdc 2026 keynote	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x08ac4d…
06-07 05:37:03	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	138	42¢	$58	0x93ca33…
06-07 05:25:27	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	210	66¢	$140	0xbfcf82…
06-06 07:31:33	will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510	No	SELL	181	86¢	$156	0x0d6842…
06-06 07:27:22	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8c4ba4…
06-05 21:22:49	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520	No	SELL	436	97¢	$423	0xac8538…
06-05 19:51:31	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x541ac8…
06-05 17:45:01	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500	Yes	SELL	53	52¢	$27	0x62e181…
06-05 17:42:21	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510	No	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0x49066b…
06-05 10:34:03	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500	Yes	SELL	7	54¢	$4	0xa8c322…
06-05 09:40:37	will apple announce ios 27 during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0xe66bf2…
06-05 09:26:31	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xd75f9f…
06-05 06:10:30	will apple announce an apple smart home display during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0xa47906…
06-05 01:43:43	will apple announce an apple smart home display during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x93f7b4…
06-05 01:42:51	will apple announce ios 27 during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xd87b02…
06-05 01:31:27	will apple announce a new product line during the wwdc 2026 keynote	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x929137…
06-04 19:28:43	will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490	No	SELL	56	9¢	$5	0x18582e…
06-02 05:28:58	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	28	82¢	$23	0x769ee3…
06-02 05:23:36	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xc12451…
05-31 18:29:14	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	No	BUY	67	84¢	$56	0xc2e764…
05-31 17:58:21	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?	No	BUY	66	78¢	$52	0x04f468…
05-31 17:57:00	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?	No	BUY	130	78¢	$101	0x404bb3…
05-31 17:17:38	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?	No	BUY	80	78¢	$62	0x71997d…
05-31 17:06:40	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xe89d32…
05-31 14:07:01	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x033905…
05-31 09:56:41	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	No	BUY	34	80¢	$27	0x5ce7ab…
05-31 05:46:42	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xdd4306…
05-31 04:48:10	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?	Yes	BUY	40	32¢	$13	0xc49d76…
05-31 04:42:02	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xe94cc2…
05-30 22:08:17	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x2f1547…
05-29 22:12:40	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?	No	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x482727…
05-29 19:43:31	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?	No	BUY	12	54¢	$7	0x61b702…
05-29 18:23:10	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?	No	BUY	1	54¢	$1	0xd7b2b3…
05-29 18:20:46	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	SELL	55	10¢	$5	0xf69ef5…
05-29 11:18:30	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x08d2f3…
05-29 07:29:16	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x0ced07…
05-29 06:27:30	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	SELL	21	10¢	$2	0x3aac31…
05-29 00:09:54	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?	No	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x9a4254…
05-28 20:37:19	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x552013…
05-28 20:14:46	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x079b0d…
05-28 20:09:59	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?	No	SELL	9	90¢	$8	0xa0c3ff…
05-28 19:51:50	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?	No	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0xe3f450…
05-28 19:42:36	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x8a9029…
05-24 16:03:51	FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301?	No	SELL	27	35¢	$10	0x7f062d…
05-24 15:51:22	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	No	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0x1b5ab6…
05-24 15:49:58	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	No	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0xaeb962…
05-24 11:14:49	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	26	69¢	$18	0xa7350d…
05-24 09:36:14	FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xb23e4a…
05-24 09:34:22	FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301?	No	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0xf01e2c…
05-24 06:39:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	60	57¢	$34	0x5b2ab1…
05-24 06:38:22	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	60	57¢	$34	0x2a4faa…
05-24 06:11:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$12	0x6157a9…
05-24 06:10:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$12	0x79f40d…
05-23 18:44:27	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	No	SELL	2	31¢	$1	0x797617…
05-23 18:38:01	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	No	SELL	21	31¢	$7	0x49a6e9…
05-23 12:34:22	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	No	SELL	33	30¢	$10	0xc241d4…
05-23 12:19:57	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	No	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x520aca…
05-23 11:19:43	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0xf1b4e5…
05-23 03:49:51	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xd38ec3…
05-01 09:48:52	FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026?	No	SELL	7	56¢	$4	0x0deb98…
04-29 07:39:48	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x44503c…
04-28 19:09:54	Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	83	27¢	$22	0xa543ec…
04-28 19:08:14	Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	83	28¢	$23	0x71010b…
04-28 18:58:00	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x2f5d36…
04-28 10:01:40	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x3bf800…
04-28 07:05:22	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x2d7616…
04-28 06:37:06	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x4eb037…
04-28 06:13:30	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x14a2cf…
04-28 04:45:42	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	15¢	$2	0xdaac9c…
04-27 23:14:10	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0xa7b98d…
04-27 23:14:10	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x6b12db…