Costly-Investigator — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$61

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

53.4%

Resolved

117

Trades

295

lifetime

Volume

$1.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-02

last 07-07 03:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Other

86% 40% -$13

Politics

12% 38% -$34

Crypto

2% 8% -$11

Tech

0% 0% -$2

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-07).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	6	$60	43	43	+0	Yes	+$9	05-09 15:32
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	9	$57	3,532	930	+2,602	No	-$20	05-20 12:43
Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	5	$33	25	25	+0	Yes	-$1	04-26 00:56
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	4	$31	49	49	+0	Yes	-$15	06-12 15:37
elon musk of tweets april 4 april 6 65 89	3	$28	20	20	+0	Yes	+$12	04-06 14:44
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	4	$26	15	15	+0	Yes	+$3	04-29 17:03
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	2	$26	19	19	+0	Yes	+$5	06-10 08:00
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	2	$25	21	21	+0	Yes	+$9	06-26 22:17
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 40 64	4	$24	18	18	+0	Yes	+$1	04-22 16:02
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	4	$22	16	16	+0	Yes	+$6	05-13 04:34
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	6	$22	30	30	+0	No	+$4	05-16 01:08
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 65 89	5	$22	20	20	+0	No	-$1	04-12 11:35
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	4	$21	15	15	+0	Yes	+$3	05-04 17:02
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	4	$21	15	15	+0	Yes	+$8	04-25 13:12
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$19	10	10	+0	No	+$1	04-23 18:00
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	3	$19	20	20	+0	Yes	-$3	04-07 08:19
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	4	$19	18	18	+0	No	+$6	05-12 20:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$18	10	10	+0	No	+$1	04-30 01:33
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	3	$18	19	19	+0	Yes	+$8	06-05 18:40
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	2	$18	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	05-20 00:09
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	2	$18	14	14	+0	Yes	+$4	06-20 05:56
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	2	$17	23	23	+0	Yes	+$13	06-02 18:31
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?	4	$17	12	12	+0	Yes	+$4	06-22 07:14
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 40 64	2	$17	10	10	+0	Yes	+$3	04-20 14:24
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	2	$17	12	12	+0	Yes	+$3	06-08 12:27
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	4	$16	20	20	+0	No	-$3	05-19 06:46
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	2	$16	10	10	+0	No	-$1	05-19 23:00
elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 65 89	3	$16	10	10	+0	Yes	+$4	04-18 14:22
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 115 139	2	$16	10	10	+0	Yes	+$5	04-13 16:10
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	2	$15	15	15	+0	No	-$4	04-25 11:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 03:51:01	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	8¢	$3	0xd36a4d…
07-07 03:41:41	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	37¢	$7	0x254157…
07-05 22:40:40	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	19¢	$4	0xfe16a4…
07-05 10:28:59	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	6¢	$4	0xbb06d9…
07-05 10:28:07	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	38¢	$8	0x32356f…
07-03 18:10:52	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	26¢	$4	0xc0d7a1…
07-02 17:06:07	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x206886…
06-30 03:24:07	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	29¢	$0	0x5e4b86…
06-29 20:26:53	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x64917f…
06-29 19:14:11	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	28¢	$4	0x2a7317…
06-29 16:10:53	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x6cd3b3…
06-28 17:19:25	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0x082486…
06-28 02:35:49	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	54¢	$0	0xc029a6…
06-28 02:35:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	54¢	$8	0x73aebc…
06-26 22:17:04	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	81¢	$17	0xa6e25f…
06-25 17:40:28	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	38¢	$8	0xf182e0…
06-22 07:14:50	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	87¢	$11	0x80e396…
06-20 20:50:52	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	54¢	$0	0x461329…
06-20 20:50:32	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x5c20a3…
06-20 20:50:07	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xac4b7a…
06-20 05:56:53	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	80¢	$11	0x8a1cb6…
06-18 16:31:52	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0xa01772…
06-16 19:38:58	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xc2a765…
06-16 14:15:43	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x150305…
06-15 17:11:57	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x1f76e6…
06-15 13:40:31	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xbfe517…
06-14 13:40:15	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$2	0x31876f…
06-14 13:33:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	29¢	$5	0x6dff4d…
06-14 09:23:43	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	32¢	$5	0x7f35e4…
06-13 22:55:27	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	44	2¢	$1	0xc78309…
06-12 16:59:10	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0xafcb52…
06-12 15:39:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x34cc7d…
06-12 15:37:45	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0x1ebf4f…
06-12 07:48:09	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	44¢	$11	0x0dccbb…
06-11 23:32:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	29¢	$7	0xbacbc5…
06-11 16:35:43	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x85e794…
06-10 08:00:46	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	80¢	$15	0x46adb7…
06-10 08:00:46	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	18¢	$4	0x093707…
06-10 07:26:21	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0x5de308…
06-08 16:26:00	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x6c60f8…
06-08 12:27:58	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	19¢	$3	0x08a00f…
06-08 12:27:57	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	80¢	$10	0xaf7bd1…
06-08 06:57:28	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0xfe77fb…
06-06 16:27:18	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	54¢	$7	0x9cd18c…
06-05 20:55:09	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xcf27c6…
06-05 18:40:46	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	67¢	$13	0xfc0933…
06-05 18:39:45	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	28¢	$5	0xcecd4e…
06-04 21:09:40	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	25¢	$4	0xdf93af…
06-04 21:08:39	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	54¢	$7	0x8bf713…
06-04 21:00:54	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x67e821…
06-04 20:55:52	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x3d2f3a…
06-02 18:31:17	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	65¢	$15	0x6c9c80…
06-02 15:52:59	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	15¢	$1	0x656790…
06-02 01:46:33	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	10¢	$2	0xaf2bde…
06-01 17:08:47	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x27b51c…
06-01 17:08:10	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x58de27…
06-01 11:14:50	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x20ffe5…
05-31 22:51:00	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xf7961d…
05-31 06:21:10	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x2747b6…
05-31 02:41:26	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xdd6ea7…
05-30 13:54:09	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x681a0f…
05-28 23:06:35	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	15¢	$2	0x980352…
05-28 20:06:39	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xb11bec…
05-28 19:22:16	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xc26457…
05-28 15:05:13	Epstein client list released by June 30?	Yes	SELL	26	6¢	$2	0x38cd43…
05-22 23:58:20	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x5f5f14…
05-22 21:06:53	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0x90bd31…
05-22 14:02:54	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0xafb4a9…
05-21 00:25:45	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x87fee1…
05-20 18:11:04	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x70995f…
05-20 17:59:42	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x99824f…
05-20 17:57:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0x28caf4…
05-20 17:56:59	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xb3dd6d…
05-20 16:28:56	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xf15bb5…
05-20 12:50:05	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	112	0¢	$1	0x8ec6ef…
05-20 12:43:56	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,041	0¢	$5	0x76b304…
05-20 12:40:33	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	926	0¢	$5	0x30e7b5…
05-20 09:06:07	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,041	0¢	$5	0x772a2c…
05-20 09:03:30	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	51	0¢	$0	0xa4b1b7…
05-20 09:00:21	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	260	0¢	$1	0x7f904a…
05-20 00:09:39	Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0xded883…
05-20 00:05:12	Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x179fd9…
05-19 23:02:22	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x9c98a5…
05-19 23:00:58	Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	No	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0x2bd951…
05-19 21:52:34	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x92a876…
05-19 20:07:33	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x9049fc…
05-19 20:06:38	Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xc7fb58…
05-19 19:02:44	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xc0457a…
05-19 06:46:04	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xfbed18…
05-19 00:18:09	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x9ae463…
05-18 23:58:56	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd37c30…
05-18 23:18:13	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x7b5045…
05-18 22:49:17	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xeb63b4…
05-18 22:47:36	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x868a0b…
05-18 22:46:41	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xeec2a6…
05-18 22:43:08	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x23d808…
05-18 22:19:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0x27eace…
05-18 22:15:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xf589e7…
05-18 21:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xb2d99f…
05-18 21:20:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xe33f5f…