Magnificent-Decrease — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$74

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

61.1%

Resolved

132

Trades

481

lifetime

Volume

$10.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$52

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 08-28 14:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Other

40% 52% -$81

Crypto

27% 81% +$3

Politics

16% 60% +$4

Sports

11% 40% +$0

Pop-Culture

4% 0% -$1

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+26	$26	100¢	$26	+$0	05-31 21:29
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	-25	-$24	100¢	$-25	-$1	04-28 13:03
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+560	$7	0¢	$1	-$6	06-10 13:28
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	-$1	0¢	$0	+$1	06-07 16:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 8?	7	$817	424	400	+24	No	+$1	05-08 13:23
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 7?	2	$598	300	300	+0	No	+$0	05-07 11:53
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	5	$469	289	289	+0	Yes	-$1	05-20 05:08
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	20	$361	181	181	+0	No	+$0	06-07 11:59
Will Norway be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	12	$257	129	129	+0	No	$0	04-28 13:04
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	13	$241	121	121	+0	No	+$0	04-13 05:19
will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	11	$219	110	110	+0	No	+$0	03-26 03:07
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	6	$214	209	209	+0	Yes	+$4	03-30 13:20
James Collier announced as next James Bond?	8	$210	105	105	+0	No	$0	05-31 13:03
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?	2	$193	100	200	-100	open	—	06-02 01:19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	6	$191	180	180	+0	Yes	+$7	05-14 06:41
will saudi aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	8	$172	86	86	+0	No	+$0	03-26 03:13
italy nordio reform referendum passes	2	$166	200	200	+0	No	-$2	03-23 08:11
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	33	$158	3,363	3,363	+0	No	+$1	06-01 13:33
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	6	$155	78	78	+0	open	—	06-02 00:54
will denny mccarthy win the 2026 masters tournament	6	$148	74	74	+0	No	+$0	03-30 07:35
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	5	$146	88	58	+30	No	+$0	05-16 18:11
will sophia chikirou win the paris mayor election	7	$140	70	70	+0	No	+$0	03-16 04:10
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?	6	$118	59	59	+0	No	$0	03-26 03:13
will afd win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	4	$115	58	58	+0	No	+$0	03-07 15:10
will the us invade iran by march 31	4	$111	400	400	+0	No	+$0	03-19 15:46
Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	4	$108	54	54	+0	No	$0	04-28 13:02
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	4	$107	54	54	+0	No	+$0	03-02 11:59
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	4	$106	53	53	+0	No	+$0	05-21 01:00
Will Donald Trump announce Eric Shmitt as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	5	$106	66	40	+26	No	+$0	05-27 20:03
will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	4	$106	53	53	+0	No	+$0	03-30 07:34
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026?	4	$105	53	53	+0	Yes	+$0	02-23 07:31
Will Fulham finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	8	$101	60	41	+19	No	+$0	04-12 17:17
Will Crystal Palace finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	4	$96	48	48	+0	No	$0	04-21 09:27
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	4	$92	46	46	+0	No	$0	05-22 09:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-28 14:17:09	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	380	2¢	$8	0xf4d866…
08-24 11:14:34	Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	280	1¢	$3	0x63eab9…
08-24 11:13:54	Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xdcf2c6…
06-29 22:53:29	Will Donald Trump announce Brandon Williams as the next United States Labor Secretary	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x2119bd…
06-10 14:01:18	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$4	0xe99a14…
06-10 13:29:49	Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	280	1¢	$3	0x004a7f…
06-10 13:28:55	Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	560	1¢	$6	0x4977d2…
06-10 13:28:42	Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$5	0xa7c004…
06-10 13:28:25	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	380	2¢	$8	0xf83a26…
06-10 13:28:15	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	350	2¢	$7	0x572d14…
06-09 11:48:10	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$4	0x4c04f8…
06-09 11:38:58	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	350	2¢	$7	0x81618f…
06-09 11:38:43	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$6	0x76e208…
06-09 11:38:25	Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$6	0x94f34a…
06-09 11:38:09	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	400	2¢	$6	0x938548…
06-07 16:25:57	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xb8623a…
06-07 16:12:49	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x949232…
06-07 16:09:42	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0xd3b3d3…
06-07 15:16:30	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x448868…
06-07 15:12:34	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x4cae41…
06-07 15:01:19	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x11e923…
06-07 14:43:58	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0x4ca946…
06-07 14:32:21	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0xbf399a…
06-07 13:05:33	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	209	2¢	$5	0xac37b0…
06-07 11:59:37	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x5932ef…
06-07 11:59:22	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x15cc60…
06-07 10:16:48	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0xaf0cf7…
06-07 10:15:16	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0xc423b9…
06-06 11:27:22	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$7	0x994eee…
06-06 11:26:22	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$6	0xdbe5b9…
06-06 11:23:57	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$5	0x27e5e7…
06-04 08:30:03	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xcb5661…
06-04 06:13:04	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xf67879…
06-02 01:19:22	Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?	No	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0x009901…
06-02 01:17:37	Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xaa4f37…
06-02 00:54:24	Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x28c820…
06-01 13:33:21	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	198	1¢	$3	0x6e94d5…
06-01 11:40:51	Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xaeb626…
05-31 21:29:46	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xf24c58…
05-31 20:51:22	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xee6f9e…
05-31 20:51:20	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x0786d1…
05-31 20:51:18	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xd6ce1f…
05-31 13:03:33	James Collier announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xe554cb…
05-29 16:55:17	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$3	0x62874b…
05-28 14:16:38	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$5	0x9ea5e8…
05-28 12:04:21	Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x35d734…
05-28 06:31:09	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	45	2¢	$1	0x3bc5b4…
05-28 05:50:49	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$4	0x081701…
05-28 05:36:32	Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x8afc0d…
05-28 05:35:53	Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x4727f4…
05-28 05:35:22	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xe42b45…
05-28 04:34:17	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x85219a…
05-28 04:18:08	Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xcef84a…
05-28 04:15:35	Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2c747b…
05-28 03:02:07	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf505c3…
05-28 01:31:47	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3668fb…
05-28 01:29:55	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc54391…
05-28 01:25:50	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1d5de4…
05-28 00:29:43	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x88b6d4…
05-27 23:02:48	Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdc2db3…
05-27 22:30:19	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0xec350e…
05-27 20:03:47	Will Donald Trump announce Eric Shmitt as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x8705d2…
05-27 18:20:46	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	44	1¢	$1	0x5023f7…
05-27 02:41:24	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x68a1b4…
05-27 02:40:31	Will Donald Trump announce Eric Shmitt as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xfb5fa4…
05-25 20:49:18	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x479bba…
05-25 05:45:23	James Collier announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x1e1bb1…
05-24 13:39:06	Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xb0d193…
05-24 13:36:58	Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xfdf07b…
05-24 13:36:20	James Collier announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x9ee305…
05-24 05:54:23	Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x30e283…
05-23 12:46:28	Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x48b137…
05-22 20:45:10	Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xe45050…
05-22 09:53:22	Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x5336f8…
05-22 09:52:56	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xe4de01…
05-21 13:10:02	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa5bdea…
05-21 04:48:25	Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	Yes	SELL	147	6¢	$9	0x1be11e…
05-21 01:02:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x05132f…
05-21 01:01:35	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x9d5455…
05-21 01:01:11	Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x69992c…
05-21 01:00:41	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x8ac247…
05-20 17:48:07	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x412fce…
05-20 13:26:00	James Collier announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xbd7865…
05-20 13:00:58	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x18d1ac…
05-20 10:25:46	Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x163a2e…
05-20 10:17:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x9959fe…
05-20 08:20:35	Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x3de4cc…
05-20 07:57:57	Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x6d780b…
05-20 07:06:11	Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	Yes	SELL	33	6¢	$2	0x7b7fc5…
05-20 05:08:25	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	SELL	244	81¢	$197	0xec57e5…
05-20 05:07:02	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	SELL	45	81¢	$36	0xa048a4…
05-20 05:05:23	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	BUY	89	81¢	$72	0xd1f3aa…
05-20 05:05:19	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x694f82…
05-20 01:33:59	James Collier announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xe246a0…
05-20 01:33:36	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x2f4e09…
05-19 16:42:56	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x62571e…
05-19 16:02:19	Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x4c6a27…
05-19 11:29:26	Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	Yes	BUY	194	6¢	$12	0xc19424…
05-19 11:21:30	Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0xd87449…
05-19 09:49:44	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$13	0xd1d0b1…