Menacing-Prosperity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

38.3%

Resolved

Trades

530

lifetime

Volume

$2.80K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-26 21:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

66% 29% $-10

Other

28% — —

Politics

7% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Spain snap election called in 2026?	Yes		-36	$-16	30¢	$-10	+$6	06-22 12:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1769954400	2	$74	47	46	+1	open	—	02-01 14:12
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 280 299	6	$63	142	42	+100	open	—	02-06 16:25
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 90 114	6	$47	49	28	+21	open	—	02-04 14:55
btc updown 15m 1768125600	2	$40	56	0	+56	open	—	01-11 10:11
btc updown 15m 1770316200	4	$37	22	22	+0	open	—	02-05 18:45
btc updown 15m 1770367500	7	$36	35	22	+13	open	—	02-06 08:59
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	2	$36	31	31	+0	open	—	05-01 23:00
eth updown 15m 1768070700	1	$34	40	0	+40	open	—	01-10 18:53
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 260 279	7	$33	1,053	53	+1,000	open	—	02-06 16:24
btc updown 15m 1768073400	1	$32	48	0	+48	open	—	01-10 19:37
xrp updown 15m 1770293700	3	$29	33	0	+33	open	—	02-05 12:29
btc updown 15m 1770311700	5	$28	34	0	+34	open	—	02-05 17:26
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 65 89	8	$28	50	50	+0	open	—	02-04 14:57
btc updown 15m 1768068000	2	$28	26	25	+0	open	—	01-10 18:08
eth updown 15m 1768074300	1	$27	41	0	+41	open	—	01-10 19:50
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 580plus	1	$27	0	305	-305	open	—	01-05 07:55
elon musk of tweets january 29 january 31 115 139	1	$26	29	0	+29	open	—	01-31 15:17
btc updown 15m 1770389100	4	$26	25	15	+10	open	—	02-06 14:58
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	3	$26	286	0	+286	open	—	02-26 13:17
btc updown 15m 1768068900	1	$26	28	0	+28	open	—	01-10 18:27
btc updown 15m 1770300000	1	$25	29	0	+29	open	—	02-05 14:08
btc updown 15m 1770304500	5	$25	34	0	+34	open	—	02-05 15:25
btc updown 15m 1768072500	1	$25	32	0	+32	open	—	01-10 19:21
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	5	$24	3,085	0	+3,085	open	—	02-03 20:36
jos lus rodrguez zapatero arrested by march 31	2	$24	155	0	+155	open	—	01-04 01:13
btc updown 15m 1770386400	1	$24	25	0	+25	open	—	02-06 14:13
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 280 299	4	$23	53	53	+0	open	—	02-09 12:15
eth updown 15m 1768001400	2	$22	32	32	+0	open	—	01-09 23:44
eth updown 15m 1770295500	4	$22	26	0	+26	open	—	02-05 12:57
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 580 599	2	$21	114	114	+0	open	—	01-05 07:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 21:39:55	btc updown 5m 1782509700	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x37db8a…
06-26 21:39:52	btc updown 5m 1782509700	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xbe8500…
06-26 20:12:28	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	68¢	$10	0xe0c19a…
06-26 12:46:11	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	219	1¢	$2	0x54bdeb…
06-26 06:27:20	btc updown 5m 1782455100	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x5ac7d4…
06-25 08:50:28	btc updown 5m 1782377400	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x4e3132…
06-25 08:49:55	sol updown 5m 1782377100	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x017382…
06-23 06:36:11	sol updown 5m 1782196500	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xeb6f1b…
06-22 19:19:50	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x32828f…
06-22 12:01:16	Spain snap election called in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	45¢	$3	0x1c3c77…
06-22 10:40:34	Spain snap election called in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	45¢	$3	0x33ded7…
06-21 12:31:11	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xaae420…
06-21 12:31:02	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x077c60…
06-21 10:37:52	jos luis rodrguez zapatero sentenced to prison	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x56fc02…
06-21 01:30:19	Spain snap election called in 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	45¢	$10	0x4fad4b…
06-19 20:53:07	btc updown 5m 1781902200	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x3f4361…
06-19 20:08:40	no confidence vote against spain pm sanchez by june 30	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xd76894…
06-18 18:58:41	btc updown 5m 1781808900	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x5f61d1…
06-17 05:09:49	Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	3¢	$1	0xb2cf32…
06-12 14:01:42	btc updown 5m 1781272800	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa3a267…
06-12 06:27:51	btc updown 5m 1781245500	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xcda36d…
06-03 17:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xca89dc…
06-03 17:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x3bdf21…
06-03 00:19:51	Nothing Ever Happens: June	Something	BUY	19	17¢	$3	0xeff1af…
06-02 22:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x4955d5…
06-01 17:32:12	No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?	Yes	BUY	41	10¢	$4	0xda1a05…
06-01 14:20:36	No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xf48bdc…
06-01 12:57:57	No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xcc198a…
06-01 10:37:20	No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0x6f5107…
05-31 15:52:12	Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x175f57…
05-30 21:36:24	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x41639f…
05-30 21:36:21	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0x48309c…
05-25 12:24:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x55b0e3…
05-25 07:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xe2eead…
05-23 22:32:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x64bb2d…
05-22 15:50:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x428997…
05-22 15:50:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x23ac1e…
05-22 13:59:32	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	No	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x7064e0…
05-22 08:49:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xd7095d…
05-21 20:45:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xebfbe4…
05-21 20:44:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x21dd4d…
05-21 20:40:37	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xed86de…
05-21 13:32:29	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0x4b0d14…
05-21 13:21:33	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xb436e7…
05-21 13:21:08	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x77929d…
05-18 08:28:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xd540b2…
05-17 16:20:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8e600a…
05-17 16:17:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xb99915…
05-17 16:16:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x017791…
05-17 14:26:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x6cc663…
05-17 10:30:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x1c5bcb…
05-17 10:13:04	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x243358…
05-16 16:21:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xa69fe7…
05-16 15:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x816989…
05-16 15:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x2d8ce8…
05-16 15:29:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x298843…
05-16 15:28:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x51500c…
05-16 15:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x71ade5…
05-16 15:26:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	4	61¢	$2	0xeba9cb…
05-16 15:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x9fc9ea…
05-16 15:24:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x1449fc…
05-16 15:21:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xdfa7d2…
05-16 15:21:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xd9cea1…
05-16 15:20:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xc4ccf6…
05-16 15:18:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xbc3b2d…
05-16 15:18:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x42cdaf…
05-16 15:17:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0x34d2a7…
05-16 15:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x03ffd9…
05-16 15:15:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x0b9fb0…
05-06 11:34:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xc451ba…
05-06 10:25:00	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xe3f473…
05-06 09:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x178842…
05-06 08:17:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x6f4ff2…
05-06 08:02:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xdfa369…
05-06 07:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0x831584…
05-06 07:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xb5959a…
05-06 07:52:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xab02ea…
05-05 17:02:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x346933…
05-02 23:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x1a7646…
05-02 22:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xc98d95…
05-02 17:36:48	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x921ff1…
05-01 23:00:20	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	31	82¢	$26	0x84baf2…
04-30 14:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xb8cc97…
04-30 14:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xccb976…
04-29 13:39:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x6ac9fe…
04-29 12:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xc5345e…
04-29 12:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x1b4334…
04-29 12:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x7981d2…
04-29 12:38:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xbd8420…
04-29 12:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x52006e…
04-29 12:32:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x4fac44…
04-29 12:31:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xfe7ffc…
04-29 12:30:18	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x1ca0ec…
04-29 12:25:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd1ae34…
03-09 19:20:41	btc updown 5m 1773084000	Down	BUY	27	61¢	$16	0x8af7c7…
03-09 19:16:55	btc updown 5m 1773083700	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x9f54af…
03-09 18:50:11	btc updown 5m 1773082200	Up	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0xf1b93c…
03-09 18:21:39	btc updown 5m 1773080400	Up	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x49c203…
03-09 18:10:51	btc updown 5m 1773079800	Up	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0x5529fc…
03-09 18:05:43	btc updown 5m 1773079500	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x1e426e…