Realized P&L
-$47
Unrealized P&L
-$9
Hit rate
50.2%
Resolved
64
Trades
135
lifetime
Volume
$997
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$54
14 positions
First seen
2026-10-15
last 10-26 10:01
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Other
60% 25% -$45
Crypto
16% 0% -$51
Politics
14% 25% -$7
Sports
9% 60% +$56
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
11 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? No +19 $13 68¢ $13 $0 10-25 17:58
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +14 $10 65¢ $9 -$1 10-25 20:15
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +13 $10 72¢ $9 -$1 10-25 17:46
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +11 $7 66¢ $7 $0 10-25 20:32
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +62 $10 8¢ $5 -$5 10-25 16:55
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +6 $2 34¢ $2 +$0 10-25 20:10
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +400 $2 0¢ $2 $0 10-21 20:23
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? No +24 $1 6¢ $1 +$0 10-26 10:01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? Yes +400 $2 0¢ $1 -$1 10-21 05:35
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes +71 $1 2¢ $1 $0 10-23 19:31
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +166 $1 1¢ $1 $0 10-21 06:15
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes +500 $1 0¢ $1 $0 10-26 09:58
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +200 $1 0¢ $0 -$1 10-21 06:11
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? Yes +7 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 10-23 19:59