Realized P&L
Unrealized P&L
+$15
Hit rate
Resolved
0
Trades
94
lifetime
Volume
$1.56K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$17
Open exposure
$370
10 positions
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-11 02:59
Equity curve
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Politics
87%
Sports
8%
Other
3%
Tech
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
11 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +199 $140 68¢ $136 $-4 06-07 22:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +98 $75 82¢ $81 +$6 06-10 21:29
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No +50 $40 82¢ $41 +$1 06-11 02:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No +117 $30 32¢ $37 +$7 05-31 23:38
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +36 $20 68¢ $25 +$5 05-27 21:02
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +29 $20 68¢ $19 $-1 06-11 02:05
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes +68 $10 14¢ $9 $-1 06-11 02:49
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes +22 $10 40¢ $9 $-1 06-11 02:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +8 $5 92¢ $8 +$3 05-27 21:00
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes +42 $5 11¢ $5 $-0 06-08 05:03