Heavy-Cell — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$751

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

13.0%

Resolved

404

Trades

800

lifetime

Volume

$28.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-14 10:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 106 days

Categories

Crypto

47% 1% -$142

Other

29% 31% -$292

Politics

12% 52% -$197

Sports

11% 46% -$117

Tech

1% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	6	$862	2,224	2,224	+0	No	-$28	07-28 16:40
nhl nyr tb 2026 04 15	2	$850	1,000	1,000	+0	Rangers	-$70	04-15 16:09
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	6	$842	726	726	+0	Yes	+$9	08-12 13:02
nhl dal tor 2026 04 13	2	$770	1,000	1,000	+0	Stars	-$10	04-13 05:42
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	9	$734	998	998	+0	No	-$5	07-16 07:29
nba atl mia 2026 04 12	3	$711	1,000	1,000	+0	Heat	-$9	04-12 14:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	5	$589	1,200	1,200	+0	No	-$17	06-18 12:35
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	5	$549	750	700	+50	Yes	+$3	07-28 16:42
xrp above 1pt7 on january 5	3	$452	1,061	0	+1,061	Yes	-$2	01-05 04:44
will the price of ethereum be less than 2500 on january 3	2	$451	950	0	+950	No	-$1	01-02 18:08
bitcoin above 86k on january 7	3	$451	950	0	+950	Yes	-$1	01-07 07:17
xrp above 2pt1 on january 6	2	$451	542	0	+542	Yes	-$1	01-06 08:21
will the price of bitcoin be between 80000 82000 on january 1	2	$421	920	0	+920	No	-$1	01-01 06:28
ethereum above 2100 on april 16	2	$401	900	0	+900	Yes	-$1	04-16 08:44
will the price of bitcoin be between 88000 90000 on january 15	2	$401	900	0	+900	No	-$1	01-15 07:33
bitcoin above 86k on january 9	2	$401	734	0	+734	Yes	-$1	01-09 11:29
bitcoin above 86k on january 8	2	$401	651	0	+651	Yes	$0	01-08 09:54
bitcoin above 92k on january 17	2	$401	734	0	+734	Yes	$0	01-17 07:21
bitcoin above 90k on january 16	2	$401	900	0	+900	Yes	-$1	01-16 06:59
will the price of bitcoin be between 86000 88000 on february 1	2	$391	890	0	+890	No	-$1	02-01 08:10
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	4	$382	673	673	+0	No	-$4	07-16 17:07
donald trump of truth social posts february 20 february 27 100 119	27	$374	503	600	-97	No	+$29	02-26 06:31
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 280 299	33	$371	1,059	950	+109	No	-$32	02-28 13:09
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	5	$366	500	500	+0	No	-$2	07-20 08:38
ethereum above 2700 on january 26	2	$352	1,017	0	+1,017	Yes	-$1	01-26 09:16
ethereum above 2200 on february 13	2	$351	850	0	+850	No	-$1	02-13 07:41
ethereum above 3000 on january 31	2	$334	833	0	+833	No	-$1	01-31 05:36
donald trump of truth social posts february 20 february 27 120 139	19	$332	690	700	-10	Yes	-$88	02-26 06:32
andrew tate posts february 20 february 27 100 129	14	$321	450	550	-100	No	+$9	02-27 07:01
bitcoin above 62k on february 15	2	$301	800	0	+800	Yes	-$1	02-15 05:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-14 10:50:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x6de177…
08-12 13:02:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	220	68¢	$149	0xa3c14e…
08-10 11:53:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	220	64¢	$141	0xb7a8cd…
08-06 05:57:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	250	55¢	$138	0xb01486…
08-05 13:01:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	250	53¢	$132	0x844c8a…
08-04 06:22:06	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x78c191…
08-04 06:21:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	256	54¢	$138	0x8a8c41…
08-03 15:59:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	256	56¢	$143	0xdb84d7…
07-28 16:43:02	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x6f2593…
07-28 16:42:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x9a9c77…
07-28 16:40:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	695	19¢	$133	0x5cbdfe…
07-28 14:56:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	695	22¢	$154	0x7dc397…
07-28 14:51:56	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	34¢	$136	0x4b57ba…
07-28 14:20:53	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	35¢	$140	0x2c9f14…
07-20 08:38:42	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	300	30¢	$91	0x164b85…
07-20 08:16:30	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	300	31¢	$93	0xfefe93…
07-16 17:07:34	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	343	27¢	$92	0x27f47e…
07-16 15:24:10	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	343	28¢	$96	0xc8b40e…
07-16 13:51:59	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	330	29¢	$97	0x463c70…
07-16 13:21:47	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	330	29¢	$97	0xd5ea7a…
07-16 07:29:47	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	299	34¢	$103	0x9c3876…
07-16 07:11:52	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	299	35¢	$106	0x11df4c…
07-09 16:32:04	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	200	45¢	$91	0x264078…
07-09 15:42:26	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	190	46¢	$87	0x692b5b…
07-09 15:41:46	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x48db04…
07-09 09:08:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	500	19¢	$95	0xf4363f…
07-09 09:06:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x63708e…
07-08 11:49:47	bitcoin above 66k on july 8 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x63f432…
07-08 11:45:56	bitcoin above 66k on july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x59a36c…
07-08 11:45:34	bitcoin above 64k on july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x390656…
07-04 19:22:37	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	300	36¢	$109	0xd9075e…
07-04 18:27:53	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	72	37¢	$27	0xff83f8…
07-04 18:20:44	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	228	37¢	$84	0xe1ef56…
07-04 14:24:17	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	400	28¢	$112	0xda0b6e…
07-04 13:27:31	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	400	30¢	$120	0x7e6e2a…
07-04 12:43:01	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	99	38¢	$38	0x373670…
07-04 12:27:28	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	99	38¢	$38	0xb25fcd…
07-04 11:01:07	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	300	38¢	$115	0x303efe…
07-04 11:00:22	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	300	38¢	$115	0x14044f…
06-24 11:18:17	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	500	22¢	$110	0x54073f…
06-24 11:01:56	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	500	23¢	$115	0xa7b4d4…
06-24 09:28:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	290	43¢	$125	0x03834d…
06-24 09:28:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	290	43¢	$125	0xa90679…
06-24 08:33:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	529	24¢	$127	0xa52938…
06-24 08:14:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	529	24¢	$127	0xd2d0b7…
06-20 14:08:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	566	23¢	$130	0xebe4e3…
06-20 13:32:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	172	24¢	$41	0xbdb926…
06-20 13:32:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	394	24¢	$95	0xd81329…
06-20 08:34:46	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	236	59¢	$139	0x401e5e…
06-20 08:27:28	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xf18645…
06-20 08:27:28	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	230	60¢	$138	0x07605e…
06-20 08:27:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0xe8f99a…
06-18 12:35:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	900	14¢	$128	0x01c836…
06-18 12:31:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	900	16¢	$144	0x148048…
06-18 12:01:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0xe92565…
06-18 12:01:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x73a086…
06-18 10:02:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	16¢	$157	0x6577fd…
06-18 09:04:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	16¢	$164	0xc5d78e…
06-15 08:31:48	ethereum above 1600 on june 15 2026	No	BUY	240	0¢	$1	0xba73fc…
06-15 08:31:37	ethereum above 2100 on june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x79d373…
06-15 08:31:28	ethereum above 2000 on june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	381	0¢	$1	0x2b738c…
06-15 08:31:21	ethereum above 1900 on june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	212	0¢	$1	0xdf039b…
06-15 08:31:13	ethereum above 1800 on june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x3560d0…
06-15 08:30:51	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	316	0¢	$1	0x90f0a7…
06-15 08:30:43	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x38516d…
06-15 08:29:37	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x97f289…
06-09 16:57:48	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	SELL	170	83¢	$141	0x3acdf5…
06-09 16:42:36	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	170	84¢	$143	0x0a111a…
06-09 10:01:06	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	200	65¢	$130	0x14df58…
06-09 09:59:22	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xd26a3a…
06-08 08:55:15	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x1f7a37…
06-08 08:54:48	bitcoin above 66k on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x36398c…
06-08 08:54:30	bitcoin above 56k on june 8 2026	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb196cf…
06-08 08:54:21	bitcoin above 58k on june 8 2026	No	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x26f179…
06-08 08:54:12	bitcoin above 60k on june 8 2026	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xd21d54…
06-08 08:52:52	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x93395f…
06-08 08:52:45	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xfd7050…
06-08 08:52:36	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x0205ca…
06-08 08:52:18	Will Spain win on 2026-06-08?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x100523…
06-08 08:51:54	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xca2f65…
06-06 07:50:19	bitcoin above 66k on june 6 2026	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x879aa6…
06-06 07:50:07	bitcoin above 66k on june 6 2026	Yes	BUY	303	0¢	$1	0x96e1bc…
06-06 07:40:40	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf139a3…
06-06 07:40:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	2¢	$1	0x3895d5…
06-06 07:39:37	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xc51450…
06-06 07:39:19	Will Germany win on 2026-06-06?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x11f136…
06-06 07:08:58	nhl car las 2026 06 06	Hurricanes	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x6c927e…
06-06 07:07:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	390	38¢	$148	0x230d0c…
06-05 10:20:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	390	35¢	$136	0x056822…
06-03 05:51:56	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x73c7ad…
06-02 09:25:50	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2?	No	BUY	223	0¢	$1	0xf01286…
06-02 09:23:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x4c0f54…
06-02 09:23:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	88	1¢	$1	0x225336…
06-02 09:22:30	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0xc37238…
06-02 09:17:19	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb0ac86…
06-02 09:17:07	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x8f3417…
06-02 09:16:26	Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji	Besiktas	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x2fe6fc…
06-02 09:15:50	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	Hurricanes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xae9af8…
05-28 04:53:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,600	8¢	$128	0xf8dad7…
05-28 04:44:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,600	9¢	$144	0x858ae4…