Subtle-Carving — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

47.6%

Resolved

298

Trades

986

lifetime

Volume

$4.95K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$79

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 17:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 52% +$28

Politics

14% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes		+9,145	$80	1¢	$78	-$2	10-26 17:46
Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes		+1,000	$1	0¢	$2	+$0	10-08 20:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 20:45 UTC	3	$668	362	362	+0	Down	-$16	02-12 20:57
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	3	$271	605	605	+0	open	—	08-06 07:49
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	7	$235	3,710	3,710	+0	open	—	10-18 05:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 14:15 UTC	7	$228	348	65	+283	Down	-$68	02-01 14:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 14:00 UTC	5	$206	356	0	+356	Down	-$76	02-01 14:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 20:15 UTC	5	$164	238	235	+3	Down	+$10	02-01 20:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 14:45 UTC	2	$154	102	100	+1	Up	+$36	02-01 14:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 15:30 UTC	7	$127	132	125	+7	Down	+$6	01-26 15:36
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-25 19:00 UTC	2	$98	195	0	+195	Down	-$1	01-25 18:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 19:00 UTC	2	$96	201	0	+201	Up	-$2	02-03 18:51
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	6	$80	9,145	0	+9,145	open	—	10-26 17:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 13:45 UTC	12	$74	129	39	+90	Down	-$17	02-01 13:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 14:30 UTC	6	$56	139	0	+139	Up	+$84	02-01 14:37
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:30 UTC	10	$49	56	22	+33	Up	-$3	03-04 20:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 19:30 UTC	7	$49	48	47	+1	Down	+$1	01-28 19:37
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-15 13:45 UTC	5	$47	62	62	+0	Up	+$8	02-15 13:51
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-23 14:45 UTC	13	$42	41	40	+1	Up	+$6	01-23 14:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-22 20:30 UTC	11	$40	44	44	+0	Down	+$7	02-22 20:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC	10	$40	46	20	+26	Down	-$2	03-01 20:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 21:30 UTC	3	$40	78	0	+78	Up	-$1	01-24 21:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-25 09:15 UTC	2	$40	77	0	+77	Up	-$2	01-25 09:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-23 19:30 UTC	6	$36	35	25	+10	Up	+$7	01-23 19:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 20:00 UTC	4	$35	68	0	+68	Down	-$1	01-29 20:02
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-28 15:00 UTC	13	$34	30	30	+0	Down	+$1	02-28 15:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-15 13:00 UTC	7	$30	70	40	+30	Up	+$5	02-15 13:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-15 09:45 UTC	6	$28	75	75	+0	Down	-$6	02-15 09:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-22 20:15 UTC	10	$25	108	0	+108	Up	-$6	02-22 20:25
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$25	909	909	+0	open	—	08-21 08:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-15 08:30 UTC	8	$24	30	30	+0	Down	+$6	02-15 08:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 20:00 UTC	2	$24	47	0	+47	Up	+$0	01-27 20:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 17:47:39	Will Jordan Bardella win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	222	1¢	$2	0xddef6f…
10-26 17:46:02	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4,286	1¢	$30	0x8302f5…
10-26 17:42:11	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,429	1¢	$10	0x66382e…
10-26 17:40:50	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,429	1¢	$10	0x2b0ec7…
10-26 17:40:26	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	714	1¢	$5	0x783d60…
10-26 17:39:12	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	714	1¢	$5	0x773a3c…
10-26 17:30:17	Will Sébastien Lecornu win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	224	0¢	$1	0xaf1a6d…
10-26 17:27:15	Will Jordan Bardella win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	347	0¢	$1	0x3fecfa…
10-18 06:04:00	Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa66203…
10-18 05:55:21	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3,710	4¢	$145	0x50d298…
10-08 20:25:47	Will neither Gabriel Attal nor Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	97	1¢	$1	0x4bb325…
10-08 20:21:32	Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x65c2b1…
10-08 20:15:23	Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe122f3…
10-06 19:05:48	Will neither Gabriel Attal nor Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	97	1¢	$1	0x5ed6f5…
10-06 19:04:00	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5,833	0¢	$6	0x263311…
08-25 05:23:46	Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	286	4¢	$11	0xf74237…
08-23 06:46:48	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,171	3¢	$30	0x239a60…
08-22 20:32:51	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	414	2¢	$10	0x655573…
08-22 20:30:57	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	417	2¢	$10	0xb76a78…
08-22 20:30:42	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	417	2¢	$10	0xbd43e3…
08-22 20:29:54	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	833	2¢	$20	0x9a8341…
08-21 08:50:09	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0x2fe3bb…
08-21 08:30:40	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	458	2¢	$10	0x6b2ce8…
08-21 08:28:49	Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	909	2¢	$15	0x32ab52…
08-06 07:49:36	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	605	25¢	$151	0x3887de…
08-06 07:48:02	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	573	3¢	$20	0x3ea8c4…
06-30 20:34:08	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xdafa26…
06-30 20:32:20	Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	286	3¢	$10	0x016456…
05-18 19:37:50	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	833	1¢	$5	0x9b8836…
05-18 19:33:49	Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	909	1¢	$10	0x011de6…
05-16 16:35:10	Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?	Yes	BUY	157	6¢	$10	0x63d0e2…
05-16 16:29:02	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0xa03efa…
03-05 20:40:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-05 20:30 UTC	Down	SELL	6	45¢	$2	0xd848a2…
03-05 20:37:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-05 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x640a2c…
03-04 20:51:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:45 UTC	Up	SELL	8	27¢	$2	0x41e46a…
03-04 20:45:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xd042f1…
03-04 20:45:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xcfb88c…
03-04 20:43:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xccbd4a…
03-04 20:42:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	17	63¢	$11	0xe1b715…
03-04 20:39:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:30 UTC	Down	SELL	17	70¢	$12	0x1802cd…
03-04 20:38:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	17	64¢	$11	0x52526a…
03-04 20:37:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xe160bd…
03-04 20:36:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x7f0281…
03-04 20:35:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:30 UTC	Up	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xf636e9…
03-04 20:34:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x6a35a8…
03-04 20:33:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:30 UTC	Down	SELL	3	76¢	$3	0xb52433…
03-04 20:31:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x424697…
03-04 20:28:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:15 UTC	Up	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x04f604…
03-04 20:27:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x62e631…
03-04 20:25:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:15 UTC	Down	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0xad5964…
03-04 20:23:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x5983a6…
03-04 20:22:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x56e50e…
03-04 20:20:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:15 UTC	Up	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0xb42207…
03-04 20:20:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xfe9f15…
03-02 20:40:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:30 UTC	Down	SELL	26	15¢	$4	0xbd9a29…
03-02 20:39:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xd52b85…
03-02 20:38:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xe85c4e…
03-02 20:36:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x771297…
03-02 20:33:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:30 UTC	Up	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x591ed3…
03-02 20:32:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xc8d1f4…
03-02 20:22:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:15 UTC	Down	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x379c62…
03-02 20:21:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x4522d2…
03-02 20:18:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:15 UTC	Down	SELL	9	22¢	$2	0x3e1447…
03-02 20:17:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x1dc603…
03-02 20:17:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xc507e8…
03-02 20:03:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:00 UTC	Up	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x401d51…
03-02 20:00:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x5158ad…
03-02 19:59:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x6baba1…
03-02 19:57:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 19:45 UTC	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xc0cf06…
03-02 19:49:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-02 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x36bec6…
03-01 21:06:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x6b75d0…
03-01 20:59:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:45 UTC	Up	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x6eb5a4…
03-01 20:57:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xed3778…
03-01 20:52:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf0a604…
03-01 20:51:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xb69112…
03-01 20:49:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x98aceb…
03-01 20:46:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x44e7a1…
03-01 20:46:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x1625de…
03-01 20:46:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xff9a96…
03-01 20:46:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x75f3ff…
03-01 20:45:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x338960…
03-01 20:45:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x36e3a7…
03-01 20:23:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x1fd15a…
03-01 20:22:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xf49863…
03-01 20:21:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xcb169f…
03-01 20:20:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x4ce0ea…
03-01 20:18:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x14d5e0…
03-01 20:18:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x1b74da…
03-01 20:13:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xf19663…
03-01 20:09:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC	Down	SELL	20	98¢	$19	0xab1528…
03-01 20:07:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xaf0125…
03-01 20:07:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xe65fd0…
03-01 20:04:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x6fc185…
03-01 20:03:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x0773e2…
03-01 20:03:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x9500bb…
03-01 20:02:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xf20903…
03-01 20:01:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x6a09f5…
03-01 20:01:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xc5338e…
03-01 20:00:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xccce51…
02-28 20:57:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-28 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x15c2f9…