Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

58.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$108

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

6 positions

First seen

2026-07-28

last 11-09 01:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Other

74% 60% +$1

Politics

22% 75% +$10

Tech

3% 100% +$4

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	11-01 05:36
Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	79¢	$1	+$0	11-08 17:31
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	No	+2	$1	58¢	$1	$0	11-09 01:31
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	38¢	$1	$0	11-07 23:31
Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	+3	$1	24¢	$1	$0	11-07 15:06
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	40¢	$1	$0	10-25 14:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	2	$4	11	+11	Yes	+$4	08-02 01:50
msft up or down on july 31 2026	1	$2	4	+4	Up	-$2	07-31 11:09
spx up or down on august 3 2026	1	$2	10	+10	Up	-$2	08-03 08:35
spy up or down on august 7 2026	1	$2	6	+6	Up	-$2	08-07 09:12
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on September 3?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-03 14:34
wynn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 04 2026 1	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	08-04 00:41
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-01 17:02
will trump say hottest during remarks in new york 20260811183234691	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-13 23:56
will nflx dip to 77 50 by august 17 2026	1	$2	10	+10	Yes	-$2	08-16 23:22
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-02 20:55
will aapl dip to 304 by august 17 2026	1	$2	7	+7	Yes	-$2	08-17 07:22
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-13 15:03
will xagusd dip to 56 by august 3 2026	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	08-03 16:36
will wti reach 95 in august 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-21 18:26
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-02 21:11
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-13 07:00
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	1	$2	4	+4	cancelled	+$0	08-01 03:12
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	2	$2	5	+5	Down	+$1	11-05 13:31
another pandemic before gta vi	1	$2	4	+4	cancelled	$0	07-29 20:52
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?	1	$2	3	+3	cancelled	$0	07-31 19:09
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	1	$2	3	+3	cancelled	$0	07-28 21:15
spy up or down on july 31 2026	1	$1	4	+4	Up	-$1	07-30 23:30
will warsh say holding during july press conference 20260728013709204	1	$1	3	+3	No	-$1	07-29 11:12
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	+$0	10-18 20:25
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	10-07 22:22
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	+$0	10-27 12:32
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	-$1	10-17 16:00
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	1	$1	2	+2	Up	-$1	10-28 04:38
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	Yes	+$3	10-21 11:05
Will Ally (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	10-18 00:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 01:31:10	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xeb08c9…
11-08 17:31:01	Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xa06266…
11-08 09:28:25	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 7+ times during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x09d50c…
11-07 23:31:55	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xee32c0…
11-07 15:06:52	Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xd7e516…
11-06 17:57:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x0a4875…
11-06 08:54:58	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $540 on November 6?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xa93e09…
11-06 00:28:39	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x8b6bcc…
11-05 13:31:40	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x2a2f5d…
11-05 12:14:46	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x6fbf1d…
11-05 02:52:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x66a94a…
11-04 03:26:10	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x95d1a9…
11-03 19:08:19	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on November 3?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xba2f0d…
11-03 11:07:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 3?	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb3ac95…
11-03 02:56:09	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x1b1979…
11-02 18:55:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd6a3e7…
11-02 10:54:34	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x533ec5…
11-02 02:54:06	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on November 2?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xe2a3dd…
11-01 05:36:10	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc0831c…
10-30 02:09:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xa3aeb1…
10-29 13:57:25	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x0cddd0…
10-29 03:20:55	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xb962c7…
10-28 13:43:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd28cb1…
10-28 04:38:53	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xf3312d…
10-27 20:33:05	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xf1f295…
10-27 12:32:30	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xa2aca0…
10-27 03:37:45	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xcdd4ef…
10-26 15:12:26	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xa232f8…
10-26 07:08:57	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x079d24…
10-25 23:08:42	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xe06faf…
10-25 14:47:45	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xd1df9f…
10-25 14:41:12	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x21b01d…
10-25 04:00:57	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in October?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x0cccdf…
10-24 00:21:38	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xb1ae8c…
10-22 16:19:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x32f6f8…
10-22 08:18:30	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on October 22?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x6c3b2a…
10-21 19:11:05	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x0b121b…
10-21 11:05:51	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x131cff…
10-21 03:05:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xd062b1…
10-20 18:13:11	will wti reach 100 by october 19 2026 from october 20	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xb9314f…
10-19 21:02:36	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $517.50 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xebdb16…
10-19 12:26:36	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xec5452…
10-19 04:25:38	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x0e2b10…
10-18 20:25:09	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xa643dc…
10-18 11:53:17	Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x69d964…
10-18 00:59:14	Will Ally (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x5cdb59…
10-17 16:00:23	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xaf4731…
10-16 12:32:13	spy up or down on october 16 2026	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x0c384b…
10-16 03:54:40	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xfb4f18…
10-15 19:05:47	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xe31fcf…
10-15 09:49:53	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x9e2560…
10-15 00:36:14	will the tesla roadster fly for 1s	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x573ff7…
10-14 15:38:55	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x0e1776…
10-14 07:30:58	will msft dip to 540 by october 12 2026 from october 13	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x006b47…
10-13 23:15:40	will meta dip to 730 by october 12 2026	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xe6682f…
10-11 01:27:56	Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x55169f…
10-07 22:22:15	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xc2d593…
10-07 02:12:21	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $525 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xd70171…
10-07 02:12:15	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x6f14ff…
09-24 19:55:44	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x8586ec…
09-24 11:53:18	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x474ed8…
09-03 14:34:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on September 3?	Yes	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0xac5c57…
09-02 20:55:30	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x7fcf11…
08-21 18:26:00	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xd5764b…
08-17 07:22:39	will aapl dip to 304 by august 17 2026	No	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0x6631fb…
08-16 23:22:06	will nflx dip to 77 50 by august 17 2026	No	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xac207b…
08-13 23:56:58	will trump say hottest during remarks in new york 20260811183234691	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x6cb25e…
08-13 15:03:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xa0bcde…
08-13 07:00:36	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xd2838d…
08-07 09:12:03	spy up or down on august 7 2026	Down	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x05847c…
08-04 00:41:33	wynn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 04 2026 1	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xf3b378…
08-03 16:36:59	will xagusd dip to 56 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0xa73805…
08-03 08:35:35	spx up or down on august 3 2026	Down	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xbb9325…
08-02 21:11:56	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x058c26…
08-02 01:50:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x3bf5bf…
08-02 01:16:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xb610ff…
08-01 17:02:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x5ee518…
08-01 03:12:18	Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xfb0396…
07-31 19:09:35	New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x3a0e51…
07-31 11:09:05	msft up or down on july 31 2026	Down	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x124aa0…
07-30 23:30:39	spy up or down on july 31 2026	Down	BUY	4	42¢	$1	0xf02c60…
07-29 20:52:30	another pandemic before gta vi	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xdab295…
07-29 11:12:15	will warsh say holding during july press conference 20260728013709204	Yes	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0xb5c8a3…
07-28 21:15:43	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x559382…