Familiar-Independent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$145

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.5%

Resolved

Trades

226

lifetime

Volume

$13.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$58

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 06-06 16:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

92% 50% $-145

Other

7% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
foreign intervention in gaza by march 31	6	$1.6K	935	935	+0	open	—	02-20 20:32
will iran strike gulf oil facilities by march 31	2	$1.5K	743	743	+0	open	—	03-02 12:03
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	7	$1.4K	874	874	+0	open	—	03-03 10:54
will bangladesh nationalist party win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	2	$876	463	463	+0	open	—	02-12 19:20
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	2	$605	319	319	+0	open	—	02-28 08:13
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	5	$560	656	0	+656	open	—	02-08 12:40
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	2	$545	853	0	+853	open	—	02-28 08:14
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	1	$528	0	550	-550	open	—	06-06 16:44
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	5	$485	553	553	+0	open	—	02-08 12:12
foreign intervention in gaza by april 30	1	$300	429	0	+429	open	—	02-25 11:29
will laura virginia fernndez delgado win the 2026 costa rican presidential election	3	$270	292	0	+292	open	—	02-02 02:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$261	178	178	+0	Yes	+$5	02-08 12:21
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?	2	$226	127	127	+0	open	—	02-28 08:14
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	3	$201	138	138	+0	open	—	01-21 14:08
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time?	2	$196	103	103	+0	open	—	02-07 04:41
will iran strike turkey in march	2	$193	111	111	+0	open	—	03-04 12:29
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	5	$190	502	502	+0	open	—	01-15 18:47
will iran strike cyprus in march	3	$188	121	121	+0	open	—	03-04 18:11
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$172	312	312	+0	open	—	01-11 17:53
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$159	185	185	+0	open	—	02-02 02:19
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?	2	$155	93	93	+0	open	—	02-08 12:39
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	1	$150	417	0	+417	Yes	$-150	01-08 04:02
us announces military support of iran oppostion by march 31	2	$148	129	129	+0	open	—	03-08 10:57
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	2	$141	106	106	+0	open	—	03-10 04:40
will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	4	$138	79	79	+0	open	—	03-05 08:52
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	2	$121	135	0	+135	open	—	01-21 16:34
will israel or the us target an iranian oil or gas facility	2	$105	62	62	+0	open	—	01-24 02:29
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	1	$100	143	0	+143	open	—	05-25 16:57
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	1	$100	0	120	-120	open	—	06-06 16:44
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	2	$97	104	104	+0	open	—	01-08 19:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 16:44:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	550	96¢	$528	0x83fb21…
06-06 16:44:33	US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	No	SELL	120	83¢	$100	0x44d9ac…
06-06 16:25:07	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	21¢	$10	0xf36262…
06-06 16:24:55	Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	31	59¢	$18	0x403995…
06-06 16:20:25	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	20¢	$32	0xe4c6e9…
05-26 05:44:34	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xe5f277…
05-25 16:57:53	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x44269a…
05-22 13:29:25	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0x170577…
05-21 05:30:09	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x2d6d98…
05-19 16:36:02	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0x533147…
05-07 11:37:37	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x9bae74…
05-06 07:07:02	Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x5da7bb…
05-06 07:06:48	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xcbd9ea…
05-04 18:03:46	Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xaa39a7…
04-27 04:49:58	Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xa70695…
04-27 04:49:42	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x0a6dc6…
04-22 17:41:50	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xa3f904…
04-22 17:39:08	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xfca015…
04-22 09:33:38	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	No	SELL	13	82¢	$11	0x900e84…
04-21 14:23:22	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x057e36…
04-21 14:18:58	Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x45c423…
04-18 14:11:06	btc updown 5m 1776521400	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xfe0533…
04-17 05:34:00	Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x107028…
04-15 06:43:48	israel military action against yemen by april 15 2026	Yes	SELL	17	1¢	$0	0x9a6870…
04-15 06:43:44	will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	88	0¢	$0	0x58c27d…
04-14 18:36:12	btc updown 5m 1776191700	Down	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xbfaf8f…
04-14 18:35:44	btc updown 5m 1776191700	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xfc21fe…
04-14 18:33:04	btc updown 5m 1776191400	Down	SELL	4	59¢	$2	0x08c251…
04-14 18:32:30	btc updown 5m 1776191400	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xee7e40…
04-14 18:31:26	btc updown 5m 1776191400	Down	SELL	3	44¢	$1	0x8a4bbd…
04-14 18:31:02	btc updown 5m 1776191400	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc5e26b…
04-13 05:39:07	will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	SELL	13	51¢	$7	0x336d40…
04-12 05:58:59	will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	88	11¢	$10	0x9133a3…
04-09 23:47:15	Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	Yes	SELL	11	75¢	$9	0xd6194b…
04-09 17:27:33	Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x8211d6…
04-09 17:13:55	will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x8f9737…
04-09 14:12:37	btc updown 5m 1775743800	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x90b4fb…
04-09 14:08:33	btc updown 5m 1775743500	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xd4e586…
04-09 14:07:41	btc updown 5m 1775743500	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x304973…
04-09 14:04:55	btc updown 5m 1775743200	Up	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x4399ef…
04-09 14:02:05	btc updown 5m 1775743200	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xab9a21…
04-09 13:57:29	btc updown 5m 1775742900	Up	SELL	3	57¢	$2	0x7e5cd3…
04-09 13:56:39	btc updown 5m 1775742900	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x2f1a6f…
04-09 13:51:29	btc updown 5m 1775742600	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xe834b6…
04-09 13:49:49	btc updown 5m 1775742300	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x3492c0…
04-09 13:46:13	btc updown 5m 1775742300	Up	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x91ca26…
04-09 13:45:53	btc updown 5m 1775742300	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x99fa56…
04-09 13:39:01	btc updown 5m 1775741700	Down	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xee19b1…
04-09 13:36:41	btc updown 5m 1775741700	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x48e1ce…
04-08 03:01:47	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	25	37¢	$9	0x7b15c1…
04-08 03:01:01	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0xe46873…
04-08 00:14:47	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	31	64¢	$20	0x2a4901…
04-05 23:29:37	btc updown 5m 1775431500	Down	SELL	19	4¢	$1	0x2de03f…
04-05 23:26:41	btc updown 5m 1775431500	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x88d47c…
04-05 23:23:41	btc updown 5m 1775431200	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x0b965d…
04-03 18:48:45	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	63	68¢	$43	0x75077b…
04-03 06:09:07	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xeaa5bc…
04-01 03:41:39	israel military action against yemen by april 15 2026	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x7c649a…
03-27 16:52:01	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xa9bbd5…
03-25 13:23:25	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x174aac…
03-19 03:02:31	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	SELL	12	63¢	$8	0x493742…
03-16 02:53:29	will laure lavalette be the next mayor of toulon	Yes	SELL	28	37¢	$10	0x1f0102…
03-14 19:12:09	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x13817c…
03-14 19:10:53	will laure lavalette be the next mayor of toulon	Yes	BUY	28	73¢	$20	0x0c6aca…
03-14 19:09:43	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x5de9d8…
03-14 19:07:05	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	48	63¢	$30	0xd5ff42…
03-14 03:12:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	31	60¢	$18	0xeb107b…
03-13 17:53:11	will france strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	110	8¢	$9	0x953146…
03-13 16:50:23	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x123f70…
03-13 11:09:57	will france strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	110	9¢	$10	0x4d7950…
03-12 18:49:55	military action against iran ends on march 30 2026	Yes	SELL	103	6¢	$6	0xcce82c…
03-12 08:59:31	military action against iran ends on march 29 2026	Yes	BUY	54	4¢	$2	0x79de5e…
03-12 08:59:05	military action against iran ends on march 30 2026	Yes	BUY	103	4¢	$4	0xec1df3…
03-12 01:31:13	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	SELL	13	25¢	$3	0xa1583c…
03-11 12:12:43	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xca740d…
03-10 04:40:25	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	SELL	106	86¢	$91	0x11d5c1…
03-08 18:16:47	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	21	71¢	$15	0x220818…
03-08 18:12:31	Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	91	1¢	$1	0xb95051…
03-08 18:12:23	Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	150	1¢	$2	0xc6011f…
03-08 10:57:27	us announces military support of iran oppostion by march 31	No	SELL	129	76¢	$98	0x6af3d2…
03-08 05:41:17	Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	91	3¢	$3	0x7857fc…
03-08 05:40:59	Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0x4b7dfa…
03-08 05:40:41	Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	164	2¢	$3	0xe8197f…
03-06 14:34:35	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	30	58¢	$18	0x0334bf…
03-05 11:46:41	Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	164	2¢	$4	0x0645d5…
03-05 10:56:27	will nepali congress win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election	Yes	SELL	83	10¢	$8	0x1b604e…
03-05 09:02:37	will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	Yes	SELL	48	82¢	$40	0xd545f5…
03-05 08:53:25	will nepali congress win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x1b78fc…
03-05 08:52:13	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	Yes	SELL	79	87¢	$68	0xbba731…
03-05 07:49:03	will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xe33afd…
03-05 07:48:05	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	Yes	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0x6e6320…
03-05 05:09:17	will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x3001c2…
03-05 05:07:11	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0xe502c4…
03-05 01:31:51	will any eu country strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	41	83¢	$34	0x8e1b5a…
03-04 18:11:43	will iran strike cyprus in march	No	SELL	121	81¢	$98	0x786392…
03-04 18:09:17	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	Yes	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xb6d810…
03-04 14:20:47	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0xf96844…
03-04 14:07:21	us announces military support of iran oppostion by march 31	No	BUY	129	39¢	$50	0x124ae2…
03-04 12:59:35	will another country strike iran by march 7 528	No	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x3af668…
03-04 12:29:21	will iran strike turkey in march	No	SELL	111	84¢	$93	0xb0d063…