Physical-Scarecrow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

561

lifetime

Volume

$928

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-06 13:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

57% — —

Politics

21% 100% +$0

Other

12% — —

Tech

6% — —

Sports

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+10	$1	10¢	$1	$-0	06-01 04:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	7	$52	1,967	1,967	+0	open	—	05-22 22:36
btc updown 5m 1771138800	6	$24	48	5	+43	open	—	02-15 07:04
btc updown 5m 1771186500	8	$21	23	23	+0	open	—	02-15 20:17
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	4	$15	13	13	+0	open	—	02-28 06:51
btc updown 5m 1771186200	7	$15	16	15	+0	open	—	02-15 20:13
btc updown 5m 1771137900	7	$12	14	14	+0	open	—	02-15 06:50
btc updown 15m 1770624000	7	$12	73	7	+66	open	—	02-09 08:12
btc updown 5m 1771172700	5	$12	14	7	+8	open	—	02-15 16:26
btc updown 5m 1771660500	4	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	02-21 07:59
btc updown 5m 1771662000	5	$11	13	10	+3	open	—	02-21 08:22
btc updown 5m 1771186800	6	$10	13	13	+0	open	—	02-15 20:23
btc updown 5m 1771660800	3	$9	8	8	+0	open	—	02-21 08:04
btc updown 15m 1770624900	5	$9	12	12	+0	open	—	02-09 08:23
btc updown 5m 1771187100	3	$9	10	5	+5	open	—	02-15 20:27
btc updown 5m 1771137300	4	$9	10	5	+5	open	—	02-15 06:40
btc updown 5m 1771662300	5	$8	10	10	+0	open	—	02-21 08:26
btc updown 5m 1771378200	4	$8	15	5	+10	open	—	02-18 01:33
btc updown 5m 1771377900	4	$8	10	5	+5	open	—	02-18 01:27
btc updown 5m 1771661100	4	$8	16	5	+11	open	—	02-21 08:07
btc updown 5m 1771661700	3	$8	18	5	+13	open	—	02-21 08:16
btc updown 5m 1771661400	3	$8	12	5	+7	open	—	02-21 08:12
btc updown 5m 1771480800	3	$7	12	5	+7	open	—	02-19 06:02
btc updown 5m 1771663200	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	02-21 08:42
btc updown 5m 1771480500	3	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	02-19 05:59
btc updown 15m 1770623100	2	$7	7	7	+0	open	—	02-09 07:59
btc updown 5m 1771318500	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	02-17 08:59
btc updown 15m 1770696900	4	$6	7	5	+2	open	—	02-10 04:28
btc updown 15m 1770712200	3	$5	7	5	+2	open	—	02-10 08:35
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	1	$5	0	7	-7	open	—	01-27 02:52
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	01-24 21:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-06 13:22:20	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xf33917…
06-01 04:24:52	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x34c097…
06-01 04:24:44	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x19af94…
05-24 22:03:13	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x165986…
05-24 22:02:34	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0xa23261…
05-24 22:02:26	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	No	SELL	3	85¢	$3	0xad6456…
05-24 22:02:20	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	SELL	3	90¢	$2	0x421526…
05-24 22:02:19	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x589cac…
05-24 07:21:41	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x616295…
05-24 07:19:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x435957…
05-24 07:18:41	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x036eb0…
05-24 07:18:34	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x9256bc…
05-24 07:18:28	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x240086…
05-24 07:18:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x34aa38…
05-22 22:36:40	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	Yes	SELL	1,967	1¢	$11	0xf2bc0f…
05-22 22:33:10	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	Yes	BUY	351	3¢	$10	0xaa18a6…
05-22 22:24:41	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0xeebdbc…
05-22 22:21:39	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x79478f…
05-22 22:19:12	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	Yes	BUY	245	2¢	$5	0x4603a2…
05-22 22:17:44	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	Yes	BUY	305	2¢	$5	0x8be54d…
05-22 22:17:27	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x030546…
05-22 16:17:39	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x52c51f…
05-22 16:17:33	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xea66cb…
05-22 16:17:26	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x0eca5b…
05-09 06:31:11	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x8c851a…
05-09 06:31:07	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x9088b4…
05-09 06:29:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x1ee6dc…
05-09 06:29:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xd20622…
05-09 06:29:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8e7b2a…
05-03 21:47:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xf7e660…
05-03 21:47:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x731c58…
05-03 21:44:24	New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels	New York Mets	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x0765e9…
05-03 21:22:48	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$2	0xda5856…
05-01 07:38:06	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x2ad58f…
05-01 07:37:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xc4fe75…
05-01 07:34:50	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa28d7f…
05-01 07:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xebe648…
04-29 13:42:06	James Comey arrested by May 15?	No	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x7ef867…
04-29 13:42:02	James Comey arrested by April 30?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x909ae2…
04-29 13:41:56	James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xd05df8…
04-29 02:37:08	NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Oilers	Oilers	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0x743dab…
04-28 06:13:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0x4a3419…
04-28 06:13:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xa41d02…
04-28 06:12:48	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x588f24…
04-28 06:10:40	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x3b3883…
04-28 06:09:26	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 28?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x232025…
04-28 06:09:24	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 28?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x131586…
04-27 15:24:20	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 27?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xed240b…
04-27 07:08:52	Will Samsunspor win on 2026-04-27?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xeff7a9…
04-27 07:05:06	Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xdaed8b…
04-27 07:02:56	NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Oilers	Oilers	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x43ed91…
04-27 07:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0xb9cfb6…
04-27 07:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x012ad5…
04-17 07:46:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x2cd765…
04-17 07:46:44	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x3d564f…
04-17 07:45:44	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	Yes	SELL	7	11¢	$1	0x7a4c1f…
04-17 07:44:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x9681b8…
04-17 07:43:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x2b69cc…
04-17 07:43:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xf94542…
04-14 19:54:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x95b5a7…
04-14 19:54:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xa680c2…
04-14 19:54:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x3387ec…
04-14 19:54:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x070a51…
04-12 15:34:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x145bd1…
04-12 15:34:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x3ebd99…
04-12 15:30:33	btc updown 5m 1776007800	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x9396df…
04-12 15:29:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xb23e5a…
04-12 15:29:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x732ad6…
04-12 15:29:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x09f856…
04-12 15:28:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x19cb15…
04-12 15:28:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x0a85f2…
04-12 15:28:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf3221b…
04-12 15:28:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x3e9981…
04-12 15:28:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x190c4b…
04-12 15:28:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x67692e…
04-12 15:28:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xfb4c1e…
04-12 15:28:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x88c169…
04-11 02:53:23	nba phx lal 2026 04 10	Suns	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x1082ca…
04-11 02:52:07	nba gsw sac 2026 04 10	Kings	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x1e262b…
04-11 02:51:49	nba lac por 2026 04 10	Trail Blazers	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x88e614…
04-11 02:51:31	nba min hou 2026 04 10	Timberwolves	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x2c2757…
03-27 06:44:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x623b7f…
03-27 06:44:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x97db02…
03-27 06:44:35	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x7ee0b6…
03-27 06:43:57	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd5bc83…
03-27 06:43:45	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x859efc…
03-14 02:01:33	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by march 31	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x188294…
03-14 02:01:27	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x568b9f…
03-09 08:01:11	btc updown 5m 1773043200	Up	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xa60ecf…
03-09 08:00:35	btc updown 5m 1773043200	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x00a8ca…
03-09 07:55:07	btc updown 5m 1773042900	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xb61acd…
03-09 07:52:39	btc updown 5m 1773042600	Down	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0xbb6953…
03-09 07:52:39	btc updown 5m 1773042600	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x158f3c…
03-09 07:51:49	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x93924d…
03-09 07:51:45	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x401929…
03-09 07:51:05	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x4b3e91…
03-09 07:50:55	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x08107a…
03-09 07:49:59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x46f360…
03-09 07:49:55	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x437ef1…
03-09 07:48:29	miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0xa494cf…