Difficult-Knock — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$75

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.9%

Resolved

187

Trades

271

lifetime

Volume

$24.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$92

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-31 17:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 115 days

Categories

Crypto

36% 79% -$25

Other

32% 55% -$22

Sports

23% 16% -$28

Politics

9% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?	4	$548	275	275	+0	No	$0	04-24 07:38
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	4	$469	235	235	+0	No	$0	01-14 12:29
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$465	233	233	+0	No	$0	01-15 07:47
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga?	4	$462	231	231	+0	No	$0	02-13 11:22
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?	2	$296	148	148	+0	No	$0	04-07 10:57
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$296	148	148	+0	No	$0	04-08 04:00
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$295	148	148	+0	No	$0	04-08 04:57
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April?	2	$289	145	145	+0	No	$0	04-19 03:52
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$284	142	142	+0	No	$0	04-20 06:51
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$277	139	139	+0	No	$0	04-21 12:23
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$276	138	138	+0	No	$0	04-05 06:54
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$276	139	139	+0	No	$0	04-05 07:05
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?	2	$264	132	132	+0	No	$0	04-24 08:04
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April?	2	$263	132	132	+0	No	$0	04-24 08:22
Will Portugal win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$253	127	127	+0	No	$0	04-26 07:51
Will Norway win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$253	127	127	+0	No	$0	04-26 08:27
Will Albania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$252	127	127	+0	No	$0	04-25 05:41
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?	2	$252	126	126	+0	No	$0	04-25 06:01
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	2	$252	126	126	+0	No	$0	04-25 06:19
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026?	2	$240	120	120	+0	No	$0	05-06 11:19
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$240	121	121	+0	open	—	05-07 11:41
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$240	121	121	+0	open	—	05-07 11:16
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$235	118	118	+0	No	$0	01-13 10:13
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$235	118	118	+0	No	$0	01-13 10:34
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$235	117	117	+0	No	$0	01-13 10:49
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$234	118	118	+0	No	$0	01-13 11:06
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$234	117	117	+0	No	$0	01-14 12:03
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$234	118	118	+0	open	—	05-09 03:42
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$234	118	118	+0	open	—	05-09 04:04
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$232	117	117	+0	No	$0	01-15 08:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 17:27:04	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 26-November 1?	No	BUY	64	100¢	$64	0x00a157…
10-31 17:24:49	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on November 2?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x95ec5b…
09-04 12:03:03	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of August 31 2026?	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0x9ed706…
08-28 08:37:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in August?	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0xa0cddb…
07-10 08:20:49	will solana dip to 50 july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0x8ac2ec…
06-27 11:33:55	googl above 440 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0xb18da6…
06-26 07:42:44	nvda above 235 on june 26 2026	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0x761457…
05-31 04:55:45	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x4dfe9e…
05-30 08:42:00	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x826721…
05-30 08:37:13	Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0x0f39e2…
05-30 08:13:55	Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x9c2d04…
05-30 08:09:38	Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0xd2f62b…
05-30 08:04:56	Will Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x83c5a5…
05-29 04:50:50	Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of May 25 above $480?	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0xaaba32…
05-29 04:46:12	Will Mistral have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x3cf63d…
05-28 12:11:07	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?	No	BUY	68	100¢	$67	0x141151…
05-28 12:07:36	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 28?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x560645…
05-27 11:48:34	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xa0cfb3…
05-27 11:40:45	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 28?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x7d1b5e…
05-27 11:31:14	Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	92	99¢	$91	0xa3c3d2…
05-27 11:16:57	Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	92	99¢	$91	0x9c7a42…
05-26 12:17:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	92	100¢	$91	0x7ab92b…
05-24 08:08:44	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	83	100¢	$83	0x039c62…
05-24 08:06:06	Athletics vs. San Diego Padres	Athletics	BUY	9	40¢	$4	0xd1f294…
05-24 08:02:38	Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	86	99¢	$86	0x9b43fa…
05-24 07:47:21	Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0xc453fd…
05-23 07:11:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0x70987b…
05-23 07:07:03	Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings	Lucknow Super Giants	BUY	13	44¢	$6	0xd17958…
05-23 07:00:40	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	93	99¢	$92	0x89128d…
05-23 06:40:24	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	93	99¢	$92	0x181089…
05-23 06:38:51	Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	93	99¢	$92	0x6724c0…
05-23 05:50:28	Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	93	99¢	$92	0xb55a93…
05-22 04:53:06	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $244 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0x93c6d8…
05-21 12:01:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0xf0d113…
05-20 11:51:03	spy closes above 715 on may 20 2026	Yes	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0xb9933a…
05-19 08:08:11	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0x785583…
05-19 08:05:33	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	92	99¢	$91	0x26cfc5…
05-19 07:43:16	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	92	99¢	$91	0xfe1742…
05-19 07:41:36	Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	92	99¢	$91	0xcdf65e…
05-19 07:21:53	Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	92	99¢	$91	0x4bb6c9…
05-18 04:29:56	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0xea1c25…
05-18 04:26:47	Will Maria Sakkari win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	SELL	91	100¢	$91	0xed88cd…
05-18 03:55:29	Will Maria Sakkari win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x8f2c74…
05-18 03:52:36	Will Sofia Kenin win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	SELL	91	100¢	$91	0xb4950c…
05-18 03:36:37	Will Sofia Kenin win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x729963…
05-17 06:26:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 17?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x0b5ed2…
05-16 11:08:40	Will Moldova be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0xa75401…
05-15 04:08:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x244eae…
05-14 05:42:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x36ec44…
05-14 05:39:03	Will Latvia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	91	100¢	$91	0xa5f849…
05-14 05:00:00	Will Latvia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x219881…
05-14 04:58:41	Will Armenia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	91	100¢	$91	0x2d8d1c…
05-14 04:43:07	Will Armenia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x8218e7…
05-14 04:40:12	Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	92	99¢	$91	0xcabcc8…
05-13 03:52:05	Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	92	99¢	$91	0xd2fbde…
05-13 03:37:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x5f0dbf…
05-13 03:35:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	1,334	1¢	$9	0x9efd5b…
05-12 07:21:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	103	100¢	$102	0x07a349…
05-12 07:18:43	Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	103	100¢	$102	0x8dc028…
05-11 07:04:00	Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0xb73293…
05-11 07:01:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	1,400	0¢	$3	0xbc0073…
05-11 06:56:23	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$1	0x5e4d0f…
05-11 06:55:51	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xbb5f4f…
05-11 06:53:54	Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0xa14176…
05-11 06:38:07	Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	111	100¢	$110	0xb7c444…
05-11 06:34:04	Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals	Punjab Kings	BUY	13	58¢	$7	0xecedc2…
05-10 06:32:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?	Yes	BUY	117	100¢	$117	0x83c5be…
05-09 04:06:13	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$117	0x751379…
05-09 04:04:23	Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	118	99¢	$117	0xec9e14…
05-09 03:43:46	Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	118	99¢	$117	0x2688a2…
05-09 03:42:39	Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	118	99¢	$117	0x5c3c96…
05-09 03:24:53	Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	118	99¢	$117	0xf36ba9…
05-08 05:23:25	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0x9917c3…
05-08 05:21:58	Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Lavked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Playoffs	Lavked	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x5da9e3…
05-07 11:42:34	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 7?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xfacf96…
05-07 11:41:03	Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	121	99¢	$120	0x177ae2…
05-07 11:17:20	Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0xc81713…
05-07 11:16:14	Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	121	99¢	$120	0x7ea15b…
05-07 11:00:36	Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0x3f5189…
05-06 11:20:04	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 6?	No	BUY	121	100¢	$120	0x098860…
05-06 11:19:00	Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0x1598a5…
05-06 11:03:26	Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xfc516c…
05-06 11:00:18	San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0xac158a…
05-05 08:19:24	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?	No	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0x612f31…
05-04 12:10:36	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0xeda08e…
05-03 09:12:46	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on May 4?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x146852…
05-02 07:08:18	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x99e6fa…
05-01 05:26:32	Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.00 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x23c72b…
04-30 05:50:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0xb0d755…
04-29 05:12:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x05741c…
04-28 06:24:56	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x148a4f…
04-27 10:27:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$126	0xdb57eb…
04-26 08:33:34	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x096d9b…
04-26 08:27:44	Will Norway win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	127	100¢	$126	0x6550b8…
04-26 07:52:50	Will Norway win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$126	0xba9b37…
04-26 07:51:38	Will Portugal win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	127	100¢	$126	0x2b88c9…
04-26 07:35:30	Will Portugal win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$126	0xe898c8…
04-25 06:23:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25?	No	BUY	127	99¢	$126	0xf7940a…
04-25 06:19:14	Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	126	100¢	$126	0x5d3c7e…
04-25 06:02:48	Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x176c7c…