Afraid-Debt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.5%

Resolved

Trades

153

lifetime

Volume

$2.09K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 08-31 04:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Other

80% 96% +$14

Politics

11% 100% +$3

Tech

4% 67% +$1

Pop-Culture

2% 100% +$0

Crypto

2% 100% +$0

Sports

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$51	51	0	+51	No	+$0	05-29 15:40
will kina collins be the democratic nominee for il 07 746	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	03-18 01:16
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-05 15:09
highest temperature in singapore on march 17 2026 34corhigher	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	03-17 05:47
will jumanji welcome to the jungle be the top us netflix movie this week	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	04-14 03:29
will elizabeth taylor get 3 million or more views in the first week	2	$47	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	04-09 04:02
highest temperature in madrid on march 18 2026 20c	2	$44	22	22	+0	No	+$0	03-18 16:28
will republic win the most seats in the lgting in the 2026 faroese general election	2	$44	22	22	+0	No	+$0	03-26 22:23
will man i need olivia dean be the billboard hot 100 2 song for the week of april 25	2	$44	22	22	+0	Yes	+$0	04-20 17:46
highest temperature in wellington on march 18 2026 21c	2	$41	21	21	+0	Yes	+$0	03-18 02:33
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 31	2	$41	21	21	+0	Yes	+$0	03-30 15:52
highest temperature in lucknow on march 18 2026 38c	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	03-18 09:24
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	06-24 02:23
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	03-31 17:05
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?	2	$37	19	19	+0	No	+$1	06-01 06:13
bitcoin above 48k on july 7 2026	1	$36	36	0	+36	Yes	+$0	07-02 21:11
will jiri lehecka win the 2026 mens singles tournament at the miami open	2	$35	18	18	+0	No	+$1	03-29 23:38
will darren bailey win the 2026 illinois governor republican primary election	2	$35	18	18	+0	Yes	+$0	03-18 02:51
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	06-15 10:47
will conagra brands say margin 5 times during earnings call 20260703161814712	2	$32	16	16	+0	Yes	+$0	07-15 13:40
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	2	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$0	05-25 08:12
Will "Michael" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?	2	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$0	05-11 00:54
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$30	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	05-31 16:13
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	2	$30	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	06-01 19:12
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	05-05 00:30
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	06-25 13:23
will aksel v johannesen be the next lgmaur of the faroe islands following the 2026 faroese general election	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	03-25 00:00
will pearl be said during the valorant masters grand finals	2	$22	11	11	+0	Yes	+$0	03-15 18:20
Will Hope Scheppelman be the Republican nominee for CO-03?	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	06-25 12:13
will reminders of him opening weekend box office be between 16m and 19m	2	$21	11	11	+0	Yes	+$1	03-15 15:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 04:10:04	Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc8839e…
07-15 13:40:28	will conagra brands say margin 5 times during earnings call 20260703161814712	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x63ff7d…
07-15 05:43:53	will conagra brands say margin 5 times during earnings call 20260703161814712	Yes	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xc65ec7…
07-02 21:11:05	bitcoin above 48k on july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x3f8651…
06-25 13:23:59	Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x419a9f…
06-25 12:13:04	Will Hope Scheppelman be the Republican nominee for CO-03?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x7c0e45…
06-24 02:23:11	Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xe45410…
06-23 04:03:41	Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xbb85ce…
06-15 17:05:28	Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x35c0f8…
06-15 10:47:46	Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x47c436…
06-09 13:11:07	Will Core CPI MoM be -0.3% or less in May?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xf8cc90…
06-05 14:56:24	Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x1cfd0e…
06-01 19:12:56	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x722595…
06-01 07:39:04	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x978aec…
06-01 06:13:50	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x9c69c9…
05-31 16:13:56	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x6712fb…
05-30 00:39:32	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x6f0883…
05-29 15:40:25	Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x27f07e…
05-29 07:27:17	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xe03e1c…
05-25 08:12:36	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x07285d…
05-24 05:15:29	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x1bb07b…
05-23 10:27:41	Will Jon Bonck be the Republican Nominee for TX-38?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x50196e…
05-19 00:10:12	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xea16d5…
05-18 00:02:30	Will Maxine Durand win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x79e918…
05-11 19:29:30	Will monthly inflation increase by 1.0% in April?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x19790b…
05-11 00:54:20	Will "Michael" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x117e81…
05-09 00:54:32	Will "Michael" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x37fc71…
05-05 15:09:48	Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x37342d…
05-05 00:30:04	Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x751713…
05-04 22:03:38	Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x01be55…
05-04 00:01:16	Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x69f7fa…
04-29 18:47:22	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x5d5101…
04-29 10:00:06	Will Don Toliver have a #1 hit in April?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x79ec7e…
04-23 16:36:20	will mrbeasts video get between 81 and 82 million views on day 6	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x68ecb2…
04-20 17:46:56	will man i need olivia dean be the billboard hot 100 2 song for the week of april 25	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x008c26…
04-19 10:29:00	will man i need olivia dean be the billboard hot 100 2 song for the week of april 25	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x7970ec…
04-14 03:29:45	will jumanji welcome to the jungle be the top us netflix movie this week	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xe4aa28…
04-13 10:18:07	will jumanji welcome to the jungle be the top us netflix movie this week	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x1941c6…
04-10 02:25:33	Will Matthew Smith be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xf2d364…
04-09 04:02:29	will elizabeth taylor get 3 million or more views in the first week	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xdc3a9f…
04-08 13:07:49	will elizabeth taylor get 3 million or more views in the first week	Yes	BUY	24	97¢	$23	0xc3dbd5…
04-05 13:56:25	will the drama opening weekend box office be between 15m and 16m	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x7fe878…
03-31 17:05:53	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xe8bf09…
03-31 04:31:39	white house of tweets march 24 march 31 2026 180 199	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xe7a911…
03-30 15:52:49	will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 31	Yes	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xd191ba…
03-30 07:10:08	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xff9202…
03-30 01:03:42	will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 31	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x38ce22…
03-29 23:38:16	will jiri lehecka win the 2026 mens singles tournament at the miami open	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xa8f2e2…
03-29 21:06:06	will jiri lehecka win the 2026 mens singles tournament at the miami open	No	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0x322830…
03-26 22:23:45	will republic win the most seats in the lgting in the 2026 faroese general election	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xbb8d08…
03-25 00:00:33	will republic win the most seats in the lgting in the 2026 faroese general election	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x8255e5…
03-25 00:00:33	will aksel v johannesen be the next lgmaur of the faroe islands following the 2026 faroese general election	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x71d8a8…
03-19 16:39:23	highest temperature in madrid on march 19 2026 18c	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x05d2a5…
03-18 16:28:41	highest temperature in madrid on march 18 2026 20c	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x7938a5…
03-18 15:57:29	highest temperature in madrid on march 18 2026 20c	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xc54e7a…
03-18 09:24:45	highest temperature in lucknow on march 18 2026 38c	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xc1abaa…
03-18 02:51:13	will darren bailey win the 2026 illinois governor republican primary election	Yes	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x4d0de8…
03-18 02:33:13	highest temperature in wellington on march 18 2026 21c	Yes	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xefb293…
03-18 01:16:07	will kina collins be the democratic nominee for il 07 746	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x7312a8…
03-18 00:49:23	highest temperature in wellington on march 18 2026 21c	Yes	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0xdf5976…
03-17 18:54:25	will love is blind the reunion be the top us netflix show this week	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x612b19…
03-17 18:54:13	will the dinosaurs be the top global netflix show this week 763	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x47d91f…
03-17 13:14:45	highest temperature in lucknow on march 18 2026 38c	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x54ec4b…
03-17 05:47:47	highest temperature in singapore on march 17 2026 34corhigher	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xda9312…
03-16 13:29:03	highest temperature in singapore on march 17 2026 34corhigher	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xe94a61…
03-16 08:21:35	will darren bailey win the 2026 illinois governor republican primary election	Yes	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x49b16a…
03-16 03:47:01	will kina collins be the democratic nominee for il 07 746	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0xcc6242…
03-16 01:53:53	will love is blind the reunion be the top us netflix show this week	Yes	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0x86d8d1…
03-16 00:00:29	will the dinosaurs be the top global netflix show this week 763	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x35c351…
03-15 18:20:01	will pearl be said during the valorant masters grand finals	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x364f7d…
03-15 15:09:59	will reminders of him opening weekend box office be between 16m and 19m	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x6a14f3…
03-15 12:00:19	will reminders of him opening weekend box office be between 16m and 19m	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x00a568…
03-14 06:41:15	will pearl be said during the valorant masters grand finals	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x7e7af5…
03-13 06:21:45	andrew tate of tweets march 6 march 13 2026 0 99	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xebe659…
03-12 21:21:29	will stateside zara larsson pinkpantheress zara larsson be the 1 song on us spotify this week 112	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xbedf1f…
03-12 21:10:05	andrew tate of tweets march 6 march 13 2026 0 99	No	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x0189aa…
03-12 00:02:47	will stateside zara larsson pinkpantheress zara larsson be the 1 song on us spotify this week 112	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x105d90…
03-10 19:15:19	will monthly inflation increase by 0pt0 or less in february	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x941582…
03-10 14:56:15	will bennie thompson be the democratic nominee for ms 02	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb4f701…
03-10 09:31:55	will monthly inflation increase by 0pt0 or less in february	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x72aeee…
03-10 07:28:03	will jurassic world rebirth be the top us netflix movie this week	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5d4fea…
03-09 18:58:29	will bennie thompson be the democratic nominee for ms 02	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x4e382c…
03-09 00:04:05	will jurassic world rebirth be the top us netflix movie this week	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xa8e044…
03-08 20:40:43	will mrbeasts next video get 50 million or more views on day 2	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x618ce8…
03-08 09:19:19	will mrbeasts next video get 50 million or more views on day 2	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x111c06…
03-06 13:38:13	will the february 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt6	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x55c9fa…
03-05 22:50:47	will the february 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt6	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xaf99ea…
03-05 22:48:29	will the us flu hospitalization rate per 100000 in week 8 be between 80 and 90	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xc405fb…
03-05 00:42:01	will the us flu hospitalization rate per 100000 in week 8 be between 80 and 90	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x5ad407…
03-02 04:49:05	Will Jon Bonck be the Republican Nominee for TX-38?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xcb2913…
03-02 04:49:05	Will Matthew Smith be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x5c97ca…
03-02 04:44:55	Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?	No	BUY	0	95¢	$0	0x7679fa…
03-01 21:18:31	highest temperature in seoul on march 2 2026 9c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x4d3a90…
03-01 19:04:29	highest temperature in seoul on march 2 2026 9c	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x7e22b4…
02-28 21:45:03	highest temperature in toronto on march 1 2026 neg 9c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xa8bbae…
02-28 16:41:21	highest temperature in toronto on march 1 2026 neg 9c	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x0e76e9…
02-28 15:35:51	highest temperature in london on february 28 2026 12c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x44116a…
02-28 05:03:31	highest temperature in chicago on february 28 2026 36 37f	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x609ecf…
02-27 20:31:31	highest temperature in london on february 28 2026 12c	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x08d4e8…
02-27 14:00:25	highest temperature in paris on february 27 2026 17c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xac8f73…