Closed-Application — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9.15K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.06K

Hit rate

99.7%

Resolved

Trades

6,796

lifetime

Volume

$2.98M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$439

Open exposure

$26.9K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-22 00:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

54% 60% +$8,031

Other

37% 100% +$96

Crypto

4% — —

Sports

4% 100% +$1,020

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 154 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	-25,000	$-23,350	96¢	$-24087	$-737	06-03 21:39
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	+3,700	$3,101	75¢	$2.8K	$-320	07-22 00:50
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+237	$71	30¢	$72	+$1	07-21 03:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	297	$430.3K	691,759	308,138	+383,621	open	—	03-27 23:26
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	143	$132.6K	163,602	75,331	+88,271	open	—	03-04 16:26
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	19	$122.6K	130,583	15,583	+115,000	open	—	04-08 13:55
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	36	$121.4K	130,367	17,332	+113,035	open	—	06-03 21:42
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	4	$105.8K	84,021	83,571	+450	open	—	02-18 17:55
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	548	$104.3K	230,594	178,634	+51,960	open	—	02-03 20:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	148	$101.0K	140,701	59,755	+80,947	open	—	06-17 15:08
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	84	$85.5K	85,127	31,726	+53,401	open	—	03-02 21:04
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	32	$83.2K	96,985	15,985	+81,000	open	—	07-07 19:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	366	$81.7K	194,543	180,237	+14,307	open	—	05-29 18:50
will melania say career during ai talk on friday	3	$79.7K	78,369	1,500	+76,869	open	—	01-20 22:56
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	413	$72.0K	214,920	136,323	+78,597	open	—	03-04 18:24
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	105	$68.0K	181,040	51,034	+130,006	open	—	04-08 09:08
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	11	$66.4K	68,639	2,639	+66,000	open	—	04-30 20:05
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	909	$65.5K	47,809	42,718	+5,091	open	—	05-24 01:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	41	$63.0K	78,446	6,811	+71,635	Yes	+$7,106	05-09 19:20
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	8	$61.9K	61,106	1,106	+60,000	open	—	04-21 00:24
another us government shutdown by february 14	121	$55.1K	61,312	81,347	-20,034	open	—	02-14 04:56
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?	1	$54.9K	55,000	0	+55,000	open	—	04-15 17:24
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	169	$54.5K	91,993	46,320	+45,673	open	—	06-14 23:01
will trump say jesus this week march 8	6	$46.3K	46,349	0	+46,349	open	—	03-11 23:08
Will Trump dance today?	4	$45.0K	45,000	0	+45,000	open	—	04-28 19:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	39	$42.1K	61,862	15,520	+46,342	open	—	05-25 19:40
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$35.9K	35,882	35,882	+0	open	—	02-08 16:54
will 2025 be the hottest year on record	1	$35.1K	35,315	0	+35,315	open	—	01-10 20:48
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	142	$33.5K	79,902	83,792	-3,890	open	—	02-28 06:50
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	2	$32.7K	33,000	0	+33,000	open	—	03-16 13:08
will axiom be accused of insider trading	14	$29.0K	21,109	21,109	+0	open	—	02-26 07:01
will trump say go ahead 3 times during healthcare event	6	$27.7K	13,946	13,945	+0	open	—	04-24 00:38
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	13	$25.6K	13,000	13,000	+0	open	—	04-30 19:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 00:50:37	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	3,700	84¢	$3,101	0x4665ec…
07-21 03:50:25	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x343a95…
07-20 20:28:39	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	111	30¢	$33	0xef4ca1…
07-20 19:56:18	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	26	30¢	$8	0x34a428…
07-19 18:11:13	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$986	0xd80892…
07-19 18:10:57	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	64	99¢	$63	0x664a42…
07-19 18:04:24	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	1,707	99¢	$1,684	0x12fd4c…
07-19 18:03:34	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	81	99¢	$80	0x81434d…
07-19 17:08:10	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	702	99¢	$692	0x05588d…
07-19 17:06:06	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x7add01…
07-19 17:05:13	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	350	99¢	$345	0x843a33…
07-19 17:03:15	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xaaa5ec…
07-19 17:03:06	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	37	99¢	$36	0x1eafe8…
07-18 01:34:16	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	142	25¢	$36	0x23ba27…
07-18 01:34:12	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	757	25¢	$189	0xa4ec04…
07-18 01:34:07	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	600	27¢	$162	0x4d3824…
07-17 23:39:51	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	999	28¢	$280	0x26cd14…
07-17 23:39:07	will anthropic remove paid plan access for fable 5 by july 31 2026 20260713185755112	Yes	BUY	176	27¢	$47	0x1834c5…
07-11 14:31:10	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	1,973	82¢	$1,617	0xc18c96…
07-10 18:44:20	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	12,000	68¢	$8,160	0x40b712…
07-09 21:39:10	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	124	40¢	$49	0xaef301…
07-09 21:38:34	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	16	40¢	$6	0x8b6721…
07-09 21:38:08	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	105	40¢	$42	0x8dcbb5…
07-09 20:38:05	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	275	40¢	$110	0xac6b19…
07-09 20:16:23	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	300	40¢	$120	0xcb7a50…
07-09 00:15:20	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281 424 921	No	SELL	3,960	0¢	$9	0x2155fc…
07-09 00:15:14	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	No	SELL	2,348	0¢	$11	0x193800…
07-09 00:14:55	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	860	99¢	$852	0x90d288…
07-09 00:06:53	will graham platner drop out by july 8	No	BUY	27	61¢	$16	0x01892a…
07-09 00:06:44	will graham platner drop out by july 8	No	BUY	4	65¢	$2	0xc1f895…
07-09 00:06:19	will graham platner drop out by july 8	No	BUY	83	65¢	$54	0x950f02…
07-08 20:58:28	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281 424 921	No	BUY	241	3¢	$8	0x1e0dbd…
07-08 20:56:56	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281 424 921	No	BUY	300	2¢	$8	0x2f37fe…
07-08 20:56:50	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281 424 921	No	BUY	787	3¢	$21	0x738904…
07-08 18:33:17	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	359	56¢	$201	0xfbebcf…
07-08 18:03:46	will graham platner drop out by july 8	No	BUY	2,028	70¢	$1,420	0x23b2df…
07-07 19:51:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,980	0x5a1902…
07-07 19:51:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	8,293	100¢	$8,276	0x39b02a…
07-07 19:51:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x68e95f…
07-07 19:51:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,980	0xb1dba1…
07-07 19:51:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,980	0x8702c8…
07-07 19:51:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,980	0x860d87…
07-07 19:51:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x1bdca4…
07-07 19:51:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,980	0x8c1986…
07-07 19:51:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,980	0x2c8390…
07-07 19:51:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xb87dab…
07-07 19:50:59	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0x28fd7b…
07-07 19:50:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x542890…
07-07 19:50:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	202	100¢	$202	0xbf6600…
07-07 19:50:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	2,482	100¢	$2,477	0x01e609…
07-07 18:16:31	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	No	BUY	140	4¢	$6	0xb0047e…
07-07 18:16:25	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	No	BUY	460	4¢	$18	0x14f112…
07-07 18:16:19	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281 424 921	No	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x8e80cf…
07-07 18:16:17	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281 424 921	No	BUY	109	4¢	$5	0xc57570…
07-07 18:16:17	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281 424 921	No	BUY	1,005	4¢	$41	0x98ce18…
07-07 18:16:11	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281 424 921	No	BUY	1,513	3¢	$52	0xfeee8c…
07-07 17:28:07	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	820	27¢	$225	0x0578bc…
07-07 05:29:47	will graham platner drop out by july 7	Yes	BUY	857	38¢	$327	0x1802b1…
07-07 05:06:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	5,384	21¢	$1,131	0x259201…
07-07 04:58:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	42	21¢	$9	0x761102…
07-07 04:58:43	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x84e38b…
07-07 04:31:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	25	21¢	$5	0xd997af…
07-07 04:31:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	12	21¢	$2	0x18224a…
07-07 04:31:25	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x879cbc…
07-07 04:31:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	280	21¢	$59	0xe9909e…
07-07 04:30:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0x3e10ca…
07-07 04:29:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	236	21¢	$50	0xc411ef…
07-07 02:17:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	5,062	26¢	$1,304	0x2e4378…
07-07 01:33:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	5,062	37¢	$1,873	0x1a396f…
07-07 00:17:28	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	3,151	36¢	$1,134	0xd07ce4…
07-07 00:01:19	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396	No	BUY	1,410	6¢	$80	0x776d50…
07-07 00:01:19	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396	No	BUY	193	5¢	$9	0x3838d3…
07-06 23:43:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	2,610	20¢	$522	0x91383d…
07-06 23:43:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	72	20¢	$14	0xf3c9f5…
07-06 23:13:28	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0x32a047…
07-06 23:13:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	5,818	13¢	$756	0x74c3be…
07-06 23:07:40	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	5,089	14¢	$712	0x75f6a5…
07-06 23:02:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	5,089	16¢	$814	0x4efb34…
07-06 19:13:14	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	No	BUY	65	50¢	$32	0x9c0434…
07-06 19:12:56	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	No	BUY	80	49¢	$39	0xfcda03…
07-05 23:41:38	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	Mexico	BUY	11,076	49¢	$5,427	0x8d2621…
07-05 20:09:41	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	Mexico	BUY	8,029	48¢	$3,854	0xc615d2…
07-05 19:16:14	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	Yes	BUY	412	46¢	$190	0xa8ca2d…
07-05 18:28:10	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	Yes	BUY	196	61¢	$119	0x49e76e…
07-03 08:39:10	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	6,000	82¢	$4,920	0xb4ae4c…
07-03 08:38:55	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	4,999	87¢	$4,349	0x0ffebc…
07-03 08:16:08	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	6,000	37¢	$2,220	0x955a79…
07-03 08:15:43	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	4,999	45¢	$2,250	0x653c31…
06-26 23:40:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	666	56¢	$373	0x653674…
06-26 23:33:58	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	No	BUY	854	100¢	$851	0x9940f0…
06-26 23:33:52	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xf94255…
06-26 23:33:52	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	No	BUY	69	100¢	$69	0x7a274a…
06-26 23:33:02	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x954392…
06-26 23:32:59	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xab6fc2…
06-26 23:32:58	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x03c16f…
06-26 23:32:56	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xd90ad5…
06-26 23:32:55	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x2a9585…
06-26 23:32:53	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xdd589c…
06-26 23:32:53	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xca728b…
06-26 23:32:53	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x9a1d5f…