Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

50.0%

Resolved

116

Trades

126

lifetime

Volume

$183

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-07-23

last 11-05 12:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 61 days

Categories

Other

85% 52% +$13

Politics

13% 43% -$7

Tech

2% 100% +$2

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No		+5	$1	6¢	$0	-$1	11-01 05:45
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes		+3	$1	7¢	$0	-$1	11-04 18:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	09-08 07:13
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-13 00:19
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-17 13:07
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?	1	$2	6	+6	No	+$4	09-23 20:01
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-07 23:08
will wti reach 95 in august 2026	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-18 15:03
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	09-09 00:44
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-13 20:30
will trump say save america during michigan remarks 20260724162420366	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	-$2	07-26 13:32
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-17 05:06
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-12 08:22
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-12 00:21
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	08-01 16:28
will xauusd reach 4550 by august 31 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-01 04:11
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	08-09 13:04
will aapl reach 320 by august 3 2026	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-06 08:31
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-17 21:38
will disney say moana during earnings call 20260803163137850 593	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-04 08:25
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-11 12:12
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-06 16:32
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	07-24 13:27
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	08-02 14:09
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	08-18 06:59
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-14 17:18
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on August 31, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	08-18 23:12
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	08-02 22:50
will xagusd dip to 63 by august 17 2026	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	08-17 22:57
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-03 16:25
will spy dip to 755 by august 10 2026	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-09 23:00
will trump say zohran or mamdani during remarks in new york 20260811183234694	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	08-13 08:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 12:14:46	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x707696…
11-05 02:57:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x0a176d…
11-04 18:56:42	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x4faa63…
11-03 09:02:19	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x6c6d10…
11-03 01:02:15	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x39ac56…
11-02 00:56:49	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xea3d51…
11-01 16:08:12	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xa54249…
11-01 05:45:34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x9a29e1…
10-30 16:26:34	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x5638b9…
10-28 19:18:28	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xda1755…
10-26 23:16:39	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xd416a1…
10-26 14:07:54	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $562.50 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x178cd1…
10-24 05:11:21	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xa1e776…
10-23 20:57:03	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x3d9ccc…
10-23 12:38:53	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in October?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x4d1b33…
10-23 04:34:27	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb49cb8…
10-22 20:28:59	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x9c55ac…
10-22 12:25:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xd54575…
10-22 04:17:06	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x9eb265…
10-21 20:04:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x694625…
10-21 12:02:36	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xcb4c16…
10-21 04:02:17	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xe2cca2…
10-20 20:01:21	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $640 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x6e6805…
10-20 12:00:26	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20?	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x030ef7…
10-16 21:32:24	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x0a2c35…
10-16 13:21:31	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x675132…
10-16 05:21:10	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xced554…
10-15 09:16:46	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15?	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x795b64…
10-15 01:11:35	will the tesla roadsters 0 60 time be less than 1 second	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x762ef1…
10-11 03:05:41	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x46e684…
10-10 19:02:51	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x7fd927…
10-10 11:01:42	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x4ecf0e…
10-10 02:04:56	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x263865…
10-09 17:50:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xa5fb49…
10-09 09:47:24	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xbf608b…
10-09 09:42:37	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd4575e…
10-09 01:20:44	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x26fb21…
10-08 17:20:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x30beb1…
10-08 08:29:53	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x1a6e4c…
10-08 08:29:43	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x94bea8…
10-08 00:25:53	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x712c8c…
10-07 16:24:17	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x1baffd…
10-07 08:10:47	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x01beb2…
10-06 00:10:22	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xcd38db…
10-05 14:54:40	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4bab9d…
10-05 06:16:14	spx up or down on october 5 2026	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x18ae19…
10-04 10:06:19	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x8d6e18…
10-04 04:23:58	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x368f17…
10-03 19:27:58	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x456bf1…
10-03 06:46:45	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xa132be…
10-02 21:57:20	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x5e1cd9…
10-02 11:59:53	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x940a36…
10-02 03:38:12	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xef72a0…
10-01 19:04:15	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xcc0d72…
10-01 10:59:53	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 1?	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xdf417f…
10-01 02:59:38	Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xfeeaff…
09-30 18:57:35	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xabd646…
09-30 10:56:08	wti closes above 92 on september 30 2026	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x44af0f…
09-30 02:56:02	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x1b7ffb…
09-24 16:02:17	will wti dip to 90 in september 2026 from september 23	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x5fb25c…
09-23 20:01:59	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?	No	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x10f7c2…
09-17 21:38:10	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xcffbde…
09-17 13:07:33	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x886fb1…
09-17 05:06:06	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xab7365…
09-13 20:30:25	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xed4f56…
09-13 11:47:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x778be1…
09-13 00:19:39	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x25bb77…
09-12 08:22:43	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xd3ca72…
09-12 00:21:15	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xe3c984…
09-09 00:44:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xfc2839…
09-08 16:23:43	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x787066…
09-08 07:13:54	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	No	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x0e0f5b…
09-07 23:08:09	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xd5383e…
09-07 13:20:24	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $502.50 Week of September 7 2026?	No	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x32f2f2…
09-01 12:14:58	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xb91701…
09-01 04:11:58	will xauusd reach 4550 by august 31 2026	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xe253b4…
08-18 23:12:13	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x1df5bb…
08-18 15:03:54	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xe2d7e7…
08-18 06:59:18	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x42537d…
08-17 22:57:52	will xagusd dip to 63 by august 17 2026	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x415bd3…
08-17 14:57:34	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x4e68aa…
08-15 01:33:16	Walmart (WMT) Q2 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 3%-4.5%?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x4df741…
08-14 17:18:06	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x9a6482…
08-13 08:55:01	will trump say zohran or mamdani during remarks in new york 20260811183234694	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x1eae60…
08-13 00:51:09	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x8cc667…
08-12 04:31:43	Will White House post 200+ posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x21b624…
08-11 20:30:49	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x402eb5…
08-11 12:12:13	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x165a39…
08-10 15:13:12	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xba2e6d…
08-10 07:00:39	xagusd up or down on august 10 2026	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x39bc81…
08-09 23:00:15	will spy dip to 755 by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x88acf3…
08-09 13:04:19	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x26568f…
08-09 04:57:01	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x9b0552…
08-08 20:49:13	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xfb48df…
08-07 00:34:08	will trump say transgender during friday roundtable 20260805211427287	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x1de4ae…
08-06 16:32:51	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x905e96…
08-06 08:31:26	will aapl reach 320 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xc4888c…
08-06 00:31:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xe505a6…
08-05 16:28:03	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	No	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x6ae3f8…
08-04 08:25:45	will disney say moana during earnings call 20260803163137850 593	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x1c24f5…