Informal-Bend — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$177.0K

Unrealized P&L

+$4.66K

Hit rate

91.6%

Resolved

Trades

5,405

lifetime

Volume

$6.04M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.12K

Open exposure

$73.7K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-29 17:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Politics

66% 54% +$152,784

Other

31% 59% +$35,879

Sports

3% 40% -$11,666

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 267 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+71,363	$53,721	60¢	$42.8K	-$10,903	10-27 20:32
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+20,526	$6,879	97¢	$20.0K	+$13,073	05-04 19:46
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	+20,832	$6,041	38¢	$7.8K	+$1,771	10-21 15:24
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,298	$620	85¢	$1.1K	+$483	06-30 16:33
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	+2,557	$767	30¢	$780	+$13	10-29 17:08
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	+1,862	$559	30¢	$568	+$9	10-29 17:08
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	+5,324	$532	11¢	$559	+$27	10-29 17:07
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,135	$114	11¢	$119	+$6	10-29 17:07
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+10	-$183	0¢	$0	+$183	05-30 15:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	79	$856.1K	383,203	504,345	-121,142	Yes	+$2,434	03-02 15:31
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	53	$834.9K	418,497	418,497	+0	No	+$379	04-30 22:02
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	81	$614.9K	588,213	32,251	+555,961	Yes	+$3,660	01-28 19:00
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	12	$493.8K	494,313	0	+494,313	No	+$494	03-04 18:45
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	343	$378.2K	790,831	13,448	+777,383	Yes	+$20,120	04-07 23:33
netanyahu out by march 31 854	66	$288.1K	300,897	897	+300,000	No	+$13,658	03-17 05:20
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	260	$275.0K	449,530	99,004	+350,526	Yes	+$10,019	07-14 21:18
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	300	$231.6K	151,211	124,470	+26,741	Yes	+$7,697	06-12 14:49
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	290	$170.5K	167,575	26,126	+141,449	No	+$13,868	06-12 05:21
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	20	$168.2K	84,512	84,467	+45	Yes	+$392	03-02 15:31
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	15	$140.6K	141,942	0	+141,942	No	+$1,310	01-08 02:25
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	190	$132.4K	429,503	0	+429,503	No	+$63,642	10-25 23:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	98	$125.1K	262,474	200,293	+62,181	No	-$4,200	05-29 15:41
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	129	$121.8K	149,642	84,668	+64,973	Yes	+$9,999	01-29 20:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	76	$110.4K	88,849	88,849	+0	Yes	+$15,039	06-14 22:06
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	115	$109.9K	59,322	59,322	+0	No	+$3,258	04-12 18:48
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	40	$109.7K	169,312	53,038	+116,274	Yes	+$7,267	02-20 16:02
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	30	$101.7K	126,543	0	+126,543	Yes	-$1,698	04-22 00:01
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	330	$99.6K	101,750	0	+101,750	Yes	+$2,145	05-17 06:44
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	1,230	$67.3K	368,286	376,814	-8,529	No	-$9,767	02-19 08:57
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	21	$55.9K	72,618	111,725	-39,107	No	-$13,282	05-16 08:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	127	$55.5K	47,568	47,568	+0	Yes	+$27,432	06-14 22:54
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	135	$53.7K	71,363	0	+71,363	open	—	10-27 20:32
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	92	$46.2K	24,830	24,829	+0	No	+$478	04-29 17:27
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	77	$45.6K	133,003	0	+133,003	Yes	+$34,072	10-25 23:50
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	55	$43.8K	44,703	0	+44,703	No	+$918	05-17 07:13
James Comey arrested by April 29?	78	$39.2K	19,827	25,273	-5,446	Yes	+$3,486	04-29 18:57
another us government shutdown by february 14	51	$27.5K	60,163	60,163	+0	No	+$3,421	02-14 04:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	42	$23.4K	56,809	56,809	+0	No	-$40	04-24 17:03
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	22	$20.4K	19,249	19,249	+0	Yes	-$801	04-14 14:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:08:52	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,862	30¢	$559	0x4c04db…
10-29 17:08:44	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	2,557	30¢	$767	0x239669…
10-29 17:07:56	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,135	10¢	$114	0x882b3c…
10-29 17:07:41	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5,324	10¢	$532	0xaa1af9…
10-27 20:32:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xc150df…
10-27 20:32:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x957259…
10-27 20:32:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	766	67¢	$513	0x2f2519…
10-27 20:32:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,464	67¢	$981	0x83865f…
10-27 20:32:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	178	67¢	$119	0xf59c0e…
10-27 20:32:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0xd7d86a…
10-27 20:32:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x6f372e…
10-27 20:32:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0x788fcb…
10-27 20:32:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0x732bac…
10-27 20:32:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0x5f4067…
10-27 20:32:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x51ac7f…
10-27 20:32:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0x0634d0…
10-27 20:32:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0x00af87…
10-27 20:31:59	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xe7ac37…
10-27 20:31:59	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0xbabc6c…
10-27 20:31:59	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xb3561a…
10-27 20:31:59	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x9ab092…
10-27 20:31:59	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0x39558b…
10-27 20:31:59	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0x0cf427…
10-27 20:31:57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0xdc47cb…
10-27 20:31:57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0xccd2d6…
10-27 20:31:57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0xc62e98…
10-27 20:31:57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0x96a562…
10-27 20:31:57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	54	67¢	$36	0x4cbe6a…
10-27 20:31:57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0x138f01…
10-27 20:31:57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,360	67¢	$911	0x06416e…
10-27 20:31:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	606	67¢	$406	0xceb6bd…
10-27 20:31:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,818	67¢	$1,218	0xf36417…
10-27 20:31:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	34	67¢	$23	0x14e6d2…
10-27 20:31:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xf04f08…
10-27 20:31:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x3e4732…
10-27 20:31:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0xb8e101…
10-27 20:31:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xa78f37…
10-27 20:31:39	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	3,433	67¢	$2,300	0x74fc8e…
10-27 20:15:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	72	73¢	$53	0xd098da…
10-27 20:14:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	80	73¢	$58	0xbfdd1b…
10-27 20:14:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	185	73¢	$135	0xd7cb29…
10-27 20:14:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	37	73¢	$27	0xd09c42…
10-27 20:14:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	80	73¢	$58	0x96fca5…
10-27 20:14:39	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	52	73¢	$38	0x5c085b…
10-27 20:14:35	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	237	73¢	$173	0x9473bf…
10-27 20:14:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x7dcd20…
10-27 20:14:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,111	73¢	$811	0xd2f519…
10-27 20:14:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	150	73¢	$110	0x85b10b…
10-27 20:14:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	19	73¢	$14	0x9873e0…
10-27 20:14:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	35	73¢	$26	0x2df9f5…
10-27 20:14:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	37	73¢	$27	0x29a041…
10-27 20:13:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	113	73¢	$82	0xa1b72d…
10-27 20:13:42	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xcfcc12…
10-27 20:13:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	370	73¢	$270	0x8b10b3…
10-27 20:12:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	5,000	72¢	$3,600	0xa121bb…
10-27 19:54:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xca26bc…
10-27 19:51:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	371	75¢	$278	0xc965e7…
10-27 19:51:12	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x5be087…
10-27 19:50:57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	896	75¢	$672	0x332774…
10-27 15:23:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,652	77¢	$1,272	0x10e3d4…
10-27 15:23:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x4949f2…
10-27 15:23:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0x557c6b…
10-27 15:22:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x23d2d9…
10-27 15:22:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x89ef09…
10-27 15:22:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,726	77¢	$1,329	0x860fd9…
10-27 15:21:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0xfa49bb…
10-27 15:21:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,661	77¢	$1,279	0x52329a…
10-27 15:20:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	47	77¢	$36	0x4d3d65…
10-27 15:20:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x0c53a3…
10-27 15:19:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,304	77¢	$1,004	0x34b85b…
10-27 15:18:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0xa6abf7…
10-27 15:18:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xbeca6e…
10-27 15:18:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,109	77¢	$854	0xf92038…
10-27 15:18:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x8d5ad5…
10-27 15:17:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	635	77¢	$489	0x8a055c…
10-27 15:17:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	417	77¢	$321	0x3e8f4a…
10-27 15:17:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	217	77¢	$167	0x045c61…
10-27 15:17:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0xa27667…
10-27 15:17:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	688	77¢	$530	0x3746ff…
10-27 15:16:45	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	839	77¢	$646	0xa51b3f…
10-27 15:16:39	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	435	77¢	$335	0x2bf997…
10-27 15:16:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x122d23…
10-27 15:15:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	87	77¢	$67	0x4af637…
10-27 15:15:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,083	77¢	$834	0xb8d0be…
10-27 15:14:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	78	77¢	$60	0x0c4a58…
10-27 15:14:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x0e2ef5…
10-27 15:13:42	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0x814a9f…
10-27 15:13:33	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2,570	77¢	$1,979	0x13ff16…
10-27 15:13:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0xefb05c…
10-27 15:13:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xa7e3d7…
10-27 15:12:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0xc68bc1…
10-27 15:12:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$0	0x182729…
10-27 15:12:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0xbed6a9…
10-27 15:11:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	37	77¢	$29	0xc5809c…
10-27 15:11:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	417	77¢	$321	0x3f16e2…
10-27 15:09:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x7d7ba1…
10-27 15:09:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x613eb9…
10-27 15:08:59	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	174	77¢	$134	0x9a3bbd…
10-27 15:08:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	448	77¢	$345	0x8f4ed7…
10-27 15:08:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0xca17f0…