Grizzled-Belligerency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5.03K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.86K

Hit rate

63.4%

Resolved

238

Trades

2,790

lifetime

Volume

$89.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$1.22K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 10-25 20:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 106 days

Categories

Other

78% 53% -$13,082

Tech

11% 50% +$7,572

Politics

9% 100% +$1,172

Sports

3% 64% -$659

Crypto

0% 0% -$32

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes		+459,621	$2,943	0¢	$1.1K	-$1,793	10-17 10:46
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes		+28,713	$141	0¢	$72	-$69	10-13 16:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	37	$9.5K	8,697	8,697	+0	Yes	+$7,619	07-31 14:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	22	$8.0K	20,953	1,300	+19,653	No	-$6,216	09-15 22:19
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	25	$4.6K	58,522	58,522	+0	No	-$4,398	03-31 21:08
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1,322	$4.0K	509,621	50,000	+459,621	open	—	10-17 10:46
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	17	$3.4K	5,970	6,012	-42	No	-$305	03-31 14:56
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	24	$3.2K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$958	09-19 07:22
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	1	$1.9K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	+$1,110	03-31 14:59
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15?	3	$1.6K	950	950	+0	Yes	+$281	09-15 21:28
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	26	$1.6K	6,451	306	+6,145	No	-$1,139	05-21 06:27
will nvda reach 208 in august 2026	11	$1.6K	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	+$400	08-03 12:07
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-14?	2	$1.6K	860	860	+0	Yes	+$154	09-14 20:24
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-09-14?	2	$1.5K	806	806	+0	Yes	+$160	09-14 18:37
will nvda reach 216 in august 2026	5	$1.3K	1,820	0	+1,820	Yes	+$513	08-04 20:38
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	6	$1.3K	1,200	397	+802	Yes	+$242	07-29 18:15
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	3	$1.3K	675	675	+0	Yes	+$76	09-13 21:57
fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	1	$1.1K	1,500	0	+1,500	Spain	+$394	07-10 07:27
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	11	$1.1K	1,607	1,607	+0	Yes	+$88	01-31 06:09
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	1	$1.1K	3,500	0	+3,500	No	-$1,050	05-21 09:38
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	1	$1.0K	1,300	0	+1,300	France	+$273	07-08 10:09
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$999	1,050	0	+1,050	Yes	+$51	05-15 10:43
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-10?	2	$960	500	500	+0	Yes	+$40	09-10 20:53
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	18	$956	1,112	1,112	+0	No	+$174	07-22 14:44
Will Finland win on 2026-09-26?	2	$954	500	500	+0	Yes	+$44	09-26 17:24
lal bil bar 2026 03 08 bar	3	$913	620	620	+0	Yes	+$325	03-07 22:57
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-10-10?	3	$906	507	507	+0	No	+$106	10-10 17:15
pltr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 03 2026 0pt35	4	$833	926	0	+926	Yes	+$93	08-03 01:14
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$797	2,200	0	+2,200	No	-$797	07-14 19:29
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	2	$750	1,000	0	+1,000	Argentina	+$250	07-11 20:39
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-19?	1	$738	900	0	+900	Yes	-$738	09-19 07:24
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	2	$717	900	0	+900	Argentina	+$183	07-07 16:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 20:19:45	Will Union Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x62f0fe…
10-25 20:19:35	Will Cercle Brugge win on 2026-10-25?	No	SELL	73	100¢	$73	0x42367a…
10-25 19:41:15	Will Union Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	53	65¢	$35	0x6668cd…
10-25 18:54:08	Will Union Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	46	44¢	$20	0xa46ff8…
10-25 18:53:32	Will Cercle Brugge win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	73	75¢	$55	0xf1945e…
10-24 11:58:05	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	227	66¢	$150	0x573be2…
10-23 20:06:50	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$10	0x6b1dc8…
10-23 20:06:39	Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	455	11¢	$50	0x0f224a…
10-20 20:51:33	Will Liverpool FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	324	3¢	$10	0x9e2f79…
10-20 20:51:32	Will Liverpool FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	576	3¢	$17	0x4f8b43…
10-17 17:21:12	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	142	52¢	$74	0x9dc8ec…
10-17 10:46:45	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x0f8d5d…
10-17 10:26:08	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x1421f4…
10-17 06:45:45	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x45498d…
10-17 04:11:33	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x07df12…
10-17 01:58:08	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xc1cb13…
10-17 01:41:36	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x6d2c50…
10-17 01:29:53	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x22f5b5…
10-16 19:13:52	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xd53f1d…
10-16 19:12:19	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xbfca38…
10-16 11:32:03	Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-10-16?	Yes	BUY	340	88¢	$299	0x6cde92…
10-16 11:23:33	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x660278…
10-16 11:21:06	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xe3e27a…
10-16 05:05:31	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xa43219…
10-16 01:49:55	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x3b4222…
10-16 01:36:16	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x1037b6…
10-16 01:34:00	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xdb1330…
10-16 00:22:15	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xe5d19b…
10-15 23:49:42	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xf4e2e2…
10-15 23:44:24	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x4a5d9b…
10-15 23:43:07	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x91df08…
10-15 17:21:26	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x8b1be9…
10-15 15:52:01	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x477971…
10-15 15:16:16	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xaf5f52…
10-15 08:15:05	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1,057	0¢	$3	0x132430…
10-15 06:11:17	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xae6ef7…
10-15 05:11:41	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	8,942	0¢	$27	0xb8bc1b…
10-13 16:20:06	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	650	0¢	$3	0x6d97d3…
10-13 16:19:03	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	650	0¢	$3	0x0a0ff8…
10-13 16:18:04	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x8e19c1…
10-13 14:49:04	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x2fa292…
10-13 13:55:02	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x87194f…
10-13 13:38:04	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xb9b288…
10-13 13:37:04	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x08b63d…
10-13 13:36:04	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$2	0x4e53de…
10-12 11:01:47	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	303	66¢	$200	0x1f7b47…
10-12 05:19:21	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	699	0¢	$3	0xc225da…
10-12 05:19:06	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	230	0¢	$1	0x35f13e…
10-12 04:52:05	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xd3fa4c…
10-12 02:43:08	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$1	0xe10297…
10-12 02:42:06	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$1	0x66940f…
10-12 02:41:06	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$1	0x69915b…
10-12 02:40:06	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x8ee852…
10-12 02:39:08	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x66ad92…
10-12 01:14:08	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x50376a…
10-12 01:13:05	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x51b51d…
10-11 23:33:06	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,600	0¢	$13	0x1fa552…
10-11 23:32:06	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,600	0¢	$13	0xb7ffdd…
10-11 23:31:06	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,904	0¢	$10	0xbaee31…
10-11 04:05:20	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xa55e2b…
10-10 20:13:10	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	74	0¢	$0	0x8dc7a7…
10-10 20:12:06	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x88f8b1…
10-10 20:11:54	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xa53b81…
10-10 19:15:21	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	90	0¢	$0	0x617802…
10-10 18:59:31	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0x8f4d22…
10-10 17:15:21	Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-10-10?	No	SELL	507	100¢	$506	0xf87759…
10-10 14:58:40	Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x8a863e…
10-10 13:58:25	Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	353	85¢	$300	0x2b1174…
10-10 07:12:40	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Felix Auger-Aliassime	Felix Auger-Aliassime	SELL	154	100¢	$154	0x3dfcc9…
10-10 06:46:21	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Felix Auger-Aliassime	Felix Auger-Aliassime	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0xdbb901…
10-09 19:01:22	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,300	0¢	$12	0x101310…
10-08 21:08:51	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Yibing Wu	Alexander Zverev	BUY	300	88¢	$264	0xac394f…
10-06 21:37:29	Will Croatia win on 2026-10-06?	No	SELL	161	100¢	$161	0x138454…
10-06 21:37:17	Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	SELL	144	100¢	$144	0xb8d5a9…
10-06 19:58:39	Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	144	32¢	$46	0xc04a7c…
10-06 19:58:14	Will Croatia win on 2026-10-06?	No	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0xfd54a9…
10-05 14:53:13	Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	1,892	0¢	$9	0x96fe43…
10-04 00:51:59	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,998	0¢	$10	0xf40b26…
10-03 21:52:25	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	902	0¢	$5	0x983a37…
10-03 20:47:02	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$1	0x41e375…
10-03 20:46:02	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	650	0¢	$3	0x793e30…
10-03 20:14:01	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	650	0¢	$3	0xa4fcea…
10-03 20:13:02	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	650	0¢	$3	0x899f6e…
10-03 20:12:08	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xcc2886…
10-03 07:11:59	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$1	0xa807b4…
10-03 07:11:54	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xab768d…
10-03 03:10:59	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	650	0¢	$3	0x289e32…
10-02 22:15:59	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	650	0¢	$3	0x6daab6…
10-02 22:01:59	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$1	0xaf8add…
10-02 21:56:59	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$1	0x81e9f4…
10-02 21:54:59	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$1	0xe0ba02…
10-02 21:54:03	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,600	0¢	$13	0x4461ae…
10-02 20:02:57	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	650	0¢	$3	0x641570…
10-02 19:33:59	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$1	0xc51ed9…
10-02 19:32:59	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$1	0xcc0664…
10-02 19:15:59	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	650	0¢	$3	0x135621…
10-01 23:47:57	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,480	0¢	$6	0xbd61c5…
10-01 22:18:30	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,520	0¢	$6	0xbe0949…
09-28 15:39:02	Will Belgium win on 2026-09-28?	No	BUY	278	76¢	$211	0x9675e4…
09-27 20:23:17	Will Germany win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	BUY	400	11¢	$44	0x82a74b…