Stiff-Limestone — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7.82K

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

58.5%

Resolved

846

Trades

2,730

lifetime

Volume

$95.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

$21

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-02 13:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 135 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 38% -$3,210

Other

42% 34% -$3,957

Politics

3% 30% -$537

Sports

2% 33% -$113

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 144 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+20	$14	63¢	$13	-$1	10-22 08:48
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+30	$8	26¢	$8	$0	10-03 14:40
Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	+2	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	10-26 02:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	39	$5.6K	4,361	4,361	+0	No	+$362	09-18 00:48
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	54	$4.3K	5,170	4,632	+538	Yes	+$123	10-29 13:56
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	33	$2.8K	2,845	2,845	+0	Yes	+$131	10-30 11:49
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	11	$1.7K	1,439	1,105	+334	No	+$330	09-28 00:58
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?	31	$1.7K	1,988	1,858	+130	Yes	+$128	03-31 01:36
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	79	$1.6K	2,129	2,129	+0	No	+$26	10-29 11:52
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	15	$1.5K	1,368	1,368	+0	Yes	+$146	10-29 15:07
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?	21	$1.5K	2,433	2,292	+141	No	-$149	02-22 15:10
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	7	$1.3K	972	972	+0	No	+$157	01-30 12:20
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?	8	$1.2K	717	713	+4	No	+$2	04-29 21:28
Will Slovakia win 2026-27 Nations League Group C3?	43	$1.0K	1,118	822	+296	open	—	10-08 23:00
Over $45M committed to the Jumper public sale?	27	$1.0K	898	898	+0	Yes	+$50	10-02 10:13
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	30	$983	1,537	1,537	+0	open	—	09-22 16:56
Will Alexandre Pantoja become UFC champion in 2026?	121	$945	2,897	2,155	+742	open	—	10-07 11:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:05 UTC	1	$874	1,047	0	+1,047	Down	-$874	07-17 06:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$798	456	456	+0	Yes	-$5	03-04 20:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	1	$766	964	0	+964	Up	+$198	07-18 03:08
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	23	$726	1,060	436	+624	Yes	-$336	10-30 15:19
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-01?	2	$693	747	0	+747	No	+$54	11-01 17:58
will vitality win iem rio 2026	18	$664	607	597	+9	Yes	+$68	04-18 06:35
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$623	1,338	0	+1,338	No	-$623	09-11 13:24
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-09-20?	2	$612	1,197	1,197	+0	No	-$130	09-20 11:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 22:40 UTC	1	$571	742	0	+742	Up	+$170	07-17 22:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 21:55 UTC	1	$570	746	0	+746	Up	-$570	07-17 21:59
Critical Discord Incident by September 30?	88	$558	1,080	1,080	+0	No	-$152	09-29 12:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 01:30 UTC	1	$548	688	0	+688	Up	+$140	08-21 01:33
Will "GTA VI: The Album" first week sales be at least 100k?	59	$545	676	676	+0	open	—	10-13 00:05
laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	10	$524	960	714	+246	No	+$222	09-10 13:43
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	8	$515	447	447	+0	Yes	-$85	04-25 17:06
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	8	$507	429	429	+0	Yes	-$3	09-10 14:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 13:36:24	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	Team Falcons	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x1253e0…
11-02 13:34:12	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	Team Falcons	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x8fe479…
11-02 13:33:42	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	Team Falcons	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x5f8a5e…
11-02 11:13:58	GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x77908d…
11-01 17:58:10	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-01?	No	BUY	650	93¢	$604	0xd208e6…
11-01 17:56:55	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-01?	No	BUY	97	91¢	$88	0xecb168…
11-01 17:55:34	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01?	No	BUY	39	35¢	$14	0x73d5c7…
11-01 17:26:13	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0xcb7e70…
11-01 17:22:30	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01?	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x218d38…
11-01 16:57:33	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	31	60¢	$19	0x806b07…
11-01 13:42:25	US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x265a4a…
11-01 13:39:04	Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x1c87bc…
11-01 13:29:13	Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xd21d0f…
10-30 15:19:52	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	31	54¢	$17	0x73d117…
10-30 15:18:40	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	73	55¢	$40	0xd1f504…
10-30 15:15:55	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	40	59¢	$24	0x21e6f3…
10-30 14:59:31	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	269	46¢	$124	0x0018b1…
10-30 14:59:21	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0x086c3f…
10-30 14:58:42	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x4a8497…
10-30 14:57:39	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	0	44¢	$0	0x29ff01…
10-30 14:55:58	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x9427e3…
10-30 14:51:57	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x5c98ad…
10-30 14:43:52	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x7c4cf2…
10-30 14:41:19	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	SELL	252	48¢	$121	0x9c76ee…
10-30 14:40:15	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	SELL	84	40¢	$34	0x05d4e4…
10-30 14:22:40	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	26	24¢	$6	0x1a4d55…
10-30 14:07:12	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	SELL	60	38¢	$23	0xdc0dcc…
10-30 12:20:40	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xdb32ea…
10-30 12:15:12	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x295f6f…
10-30 11:49:39	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	SELL	553	94¢	$519	0x17e944…
10-30 11:41:25	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x54c792…
10-30 11:08:58	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	70	83¢	$58	0x626c12…
10-30 11:03:00	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x72ff86…
10-30 11:00:58	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	46	77¢	$36	0x138142…
10-30 10:44:28	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xc09f34…
10-30 10:42:43	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xb26d7d…
10-30 10:29:52	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	300	79¢	$237	0xe1fdbc…
10-30 10:17:40	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0xf5b78e…
10-30 10:10:52	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xc64b88…
10-30 10:10:43	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0xbdbb32…
10-30 08:51:31	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	No	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0xfaa93f…
10-30 08:35:30	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	No	BUY	94	16¢	$15	0xf5d550…
10-30 08:14:25	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x38e43f…
10-29 15:07:56	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	Yes	SELL	250	66¢	$165	0x53b1d3…
10-29 14:27:53	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	Yes	SELL	161	64¢	$103	0x6974de…
10-29 14:27:49	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	Yes	SELL	89	64¢	$57	0xee81a9…
10-29 13:56:22	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	SELL	244	2¢	$4	0xdf9c30…
10-29 13:53:16	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0x7caba8…
10-29 11:52:43	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	442	6¢	$27	0xcdb34a…
10-29 11:48:59	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0xeaa1e0…
10-29 11:48:29	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	Yes	BUY	400	64¢	$256	0xb565e1…
10-29 11:35:50	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Yes	SELL	9	44¢	$4	0xb99908…
10-29 11:35:14	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	70	6¢	$4	0x8d1625…
10-29 11:19:10	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	538	93¢	$500	0x3a3795…
10-29 11:12:28	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0x6a45ab…
10-29 11:11:53	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	146	6¢	$9	0x0abd64…
10-29 11:08:28	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	SELL	551	93¢	$513	0x5d416f…
10-29 11:08:04	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	SELL	249	93¢	$231	0x383dac…
10-29 11:06:17	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	35	9¢	$3	0x903700…
10-29 10:52:26	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	SELL	490	72¢	$353	0x65d08d…
10-29 09:32:35	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Yes	SELL	11	44¢	$5	0xb61830…
10-29 08:28:35	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	5¢	$3	0xf9bff7…
10-29 08:25:52	1win FDV above $30M one day after launch?	No	SELL	155	9¢	$14	0x1f7171…
10-29 06:55:11	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xbd206a…
10-29 06:55:04	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	160	91¢	$146	0x265d3d…
10-29 06:32:17	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	SELL	59	8¢	$5	0xf0e83b…
10-29 05:46:49	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x96ac4b…
10-29 03:38:28	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	360	92¢	$331	0x714d25…
10-29 03:22:46	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x83f837…
10-29 03:14:55	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x2c13b9…
10-29 03:14:40	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xabfeaf…
10-29 00:51:28	1win FDV above $30M one day after launch?	No	SELL	51	11¢	$6	0x2fbe0b…
10-29 00:32:37	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xabe242…
10-28 23:39:50	1win FDV above $30M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0xc097fe…
10-28 23:38:07	1win FDV above $30M one day after launch?	No	SELL	24	11¢	$3	0x1cc99a…
10-28 22:42:59	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Yes	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0x0d8145…
10-28 21:30:26	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	42	8¢	$3	0xce92a0…
10-28 19:06:16	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xa182a4…
10-28 19:05:29	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	SELL	198	10¢	$20	0xbf866f…
10-28 18:30:56	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x2ac523…
10-28 18:29:20	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	82	8¢	$7	0x8e4062…
10-28 17:32:14	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	136	65¢	$88	0x4e16bd…
10-28 17:31:47	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0x433e0f…
10-28 17:31:01	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	BUY	154	64¢	$99	0x04013d…
10-28 17:27:05	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x0f2adc…
10-28 16:55:37	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	SELL	194	14¢	$27	0xd67443…
10-28 16:44:38	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0x6349da…
10-28 16:43:28	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	7¢	$2	0xc525e6…
10-28 16:33:40	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	127	14¢	$18	0xf2f92b…
10-28 16:33:40	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	72	14¢	$10	0xe202ce…
10-28 15:45:43	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	SELL	300	16¢	$48	0xdf57dd…
10-28 15:27:49	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	150	16¢	$24	0x0020bd…
10-28 15:23:14	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	24	16¢	$4	0xfd3159…
10-28 15:23:14	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	126	16¢	$20	0xebdbff…
10-28 15:23:14	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	0	16¢	$0	0x1c6002…
10-28 14:05:37	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	SELL	300	79¢	$237	0xc4f530…
10-28 09:51:44	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	No	SELL	300	52¢	$156	0x4c92cd…
10-28 03:41:19	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	No	SELL	200	32¢	$64	0x8804d5…
10-28 03:40:45	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	No	SELL	675	32¢	$216	0xceb3bc…
10-28 03:40:19	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	300	78¢	$234	0x481baa…