Insidious-Ranger — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$329

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

53.0%

Resolved

369

Trades

772

lifetime

Volume

$2.67K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-21

last 10-24 08:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 101 days

Categories

Other

60% 52% -$234

Crypto

25% 55% -$27

Politics

12% 32% -$17

Sports

2% 25% -$35

Tech

1% 0% -$15

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	No		+20	$2	8¢	$1	$0	10-21 18:53
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes		+285	$8	0¢	$0	-$8	09-13 20:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the march meeting	31	$159	560	417	+143	No	-$83	03-18 19:59
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 22?	13	$100	101	101	+0	Down	+$12	09-22 17:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$77	44	44	+0	No	+$7	05-18 16:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 16:30 UTC	6	$63	93	49	+43	Up	-$18	03-23 16:41
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	4	$48	80	0	+80	Yes	+$32	03-22 16:16
Will ASC Oțelul Galați vs. FC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara end in a draw?	9	$47	49	49	+0	No	+$13	09-21 16:42
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$40	47	0	+47	No	+$7	03-23 18:06
Will FC Bayern München vs. Manchester City WFC end in a draw?	2	$38	33	33	+0	Yes	+$28	09-22 18:36
will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the march meeting	1	$37	40	0	+40	Yes	+$3	03-19 20:24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	7	$37	58	31	+27	No	-$7	09-16 16:59
Will Coventry City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?	3	$35	20	20	+0	No	+$5	09-13 14:24
Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	2	$34	20	20	+0	No	+$5	09-13 17:24
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	5	$32	357	357	+0	No	-$18	04-13 15:05
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$29	116	116	+0	No	-$16	04-22 16:03
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	13	$29	541	541	+0	Yes	+$7	09-22 18:55
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	6	$28	140	140	+0	No	-$6	09-13 08:08
will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the march meeting	12	$28	4,649	0	+4,649	No	-$28	03-10 15:53
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-09-13?	2	$28	20	20	+0	Yes	+$8	09-13 17:51
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	5	$26	23	12	+11	Yes	+$2	09-20 17:59
Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek	1	$25	42	0	+42	Deniz Dilek	-$25	09-23 07:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-07 18:00 UTC	2	$25	27	0	+27	Down	+$2	03-07 18:04
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	6	$23	324	210	+114	No	-$4	09-08 21:20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	7	$23	98	98	+0	open	—	10-10 08:43
Will Torino FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw?	2	$22	30	0	+30	No	+$8	09-14 16:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 15:45 UTC	2	$22	23	22	+0	Down	+$2	03-23 15:48
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	6	$21	71	71	+0	No	+$11	03-31 14:58
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	5	$21	21	9	+12	Yes	+$3	09-10 19:58
Will ASC Oțelul Galați win on 2026-09-21?	3	$20	92	0	+92	No	-$20	09-21 15:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 14:55 UTC	2	$20	19	19	+0	Down	+$10	08-30 14:58
Sao Paulo Open: Eva Lys vs Gabriela Ce	2	$20	26	0	+26	Eva Lys	+$6	09-16 17:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 08:22:41	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Petr Yan	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0x0d133c…
10-24 07:59:20	UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	Movsar Evloev	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x55d5c8…
10-24 07:57:57	UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)	Ramazan Temirov	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xf6a541…
10-23 16:30:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	20¢	$2	0xab2c25…
10-23 16:29:54	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x8383d9…
10-22 18:27:50	UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	Movsar Evloev	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x3889a3…
10-21 20:49:53	Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xa492c8…
10-21 20:45:09	Will FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	No	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0xab93b5…
10-21 20:32:12	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-21?	No	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0x4bcbe3…
10-21 20:17:00	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	6	42¢	$2	0x2d4a7f…
10-21 20:03:29	Will FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0xf3c620…
10-21 20:01:29	UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)	Ramazan Temirov	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x00ec3a…
10-21 20:00:02	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	6	25¢	$1	0xb243c8…
10-21 19:59:14	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	21	19¢	$4	0xe4de83…
10-21 18:53:21	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xcb4be7…
10-21 18:35:27	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	283	1¢	$2	0x035936…
10-21 18:35:21	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	27	1¢	$0	0x063d4f…
10-21 16:17:36	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x7c6580…
10-21 14:37:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xb9706e…
10-20 16:52:26	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	75	1¢	$1	0x37dc7e…
10-20 16:52:24	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0x9a02f7…
10-20 16:51:45	Will SSC Napoli vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$3	0x89d384…
10-20 16:49:08	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	No	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0x460566…
10-20 16:05:12	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	13¢	$2	0xa4495a…
10-19 18:09:57	UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	Movsar Evloev	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7a23c3…
10-19 18:09:00	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x652010…
10-19 18:06:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x4256ea…
10-19 08:28:45	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	No	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0x845b0c…
10-18 15:43:47	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?	No	SELL	4	95¢	$3	0x136e56…
10-18 15:21:11	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?	No	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x7ab135…
10-18 15:14:06	Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Como 1907 end in a draw?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xec67bc…
10-18 13:08:24	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	No	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x045635…
10-18 13:03:51	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x3df729…
10-18 13:03:03	Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?	No	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0xcab023…
10-18 12:43:38	Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Como 1907 end in a draw?	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x1261e1…
10-17 12:08:30	wta zidanse samson 2026 10 17	Laura Samson	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x47712e…
10-17 10:18:27	wta zidanse samson 2026 10 17	Laura Samson	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x8bbcd4…
10-17 09:29:27	wta kalinin waltert 2026 10 17	Simona Waltert	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xfd3668…
10-17 09:13:21	wta kalinin waltert 2026 10 17	Simona Waltert	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0xc8f441…
10-17 09:02:50	wta kalinin waltert 2026 10 17	Simona Waltert	SELL	5	47¢	$3	0x1b208a…
10-17 08:06:27	wta kalinin waltert 2026 10 17	Simona Waltert	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xa5d9eb…
10-16 15:41:31	atp balshaw brunold 2026 10 16	Felix Balshaw	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xa2bd15…
10-16 15:24:49	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x0ff0aa…
10-15 06:07:34	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$2	0xb9bd74…
10-13 16:11:49	Will Villarreal CF vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x43b0e4…
10-13 16:10:34	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-10-13?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x7c75a9…
10-12 20:39:57	Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xa55cdb…
10-12 20:17:45	Will Coventry City FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0xab56b8…
10-12 19:21:38	Will Coventry City FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x6d72e9…
10-12 16:49:56	Will Coventry City FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x233d19…
10-11 20:36:48	Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x81053e…
10-11 20:20:37	Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x628748…
10-11 06:17:50	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Gea	Arthur Gea	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x9d0709…
10-10 11:47:19	Will Arsenal FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xf447bb…
10-10 10:39:40	Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maya Joint	Mananchaya Sawangkaew	BUY	3	83¢	$3	0xba96f5…
10-10 08:48:06	Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Claire Liu	Claire Liu	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xec9200…
10-10 08:43:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	85	9¢	$8	0x1d76c9…
09-27 14:13:30	Will Germany win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	BUY	11	68¢	$8	0xeb3055…
09-27 14:11:23	Will Lithuania vs. Azerbaijan end in a draw?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x4d222b…
09-26 19:39:51	Will England vs. Spain end in a draw?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x574803…
09-25 19:44:35	ufc rao rau2 2026 09 26	Raul Rosas Jr.	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x1d4ce3…
09-23 18:47:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x098a1b…
09-23 17:54:38	Will Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women vs. AS Roma end in a draw?	No	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0x767712…
09-23 17:52:32	wti up or down on september 23 2026	Down	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0xe9a625…
09-23 17:51:19	Will Gibraltar vs. São Tomé e Príncipe end in a draw?	No	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0xb54adb…
09-23 17:47:52	Will Gibraltar vs. São Tomé e Príncipe end in a draw?	No	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0xa90cd0…
09-23 17:46:47	Will Azerbaijan vs. Tajikistan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x493f35…
09-23 08:25:08	wti up or down on september 23 2026	Down	BUY	15	45¢	$7	0x02f287…
09-23 07:33:58	Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek	Solana Sierra	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x008ac6…
09-23 05:42:53	Alvark Tokyo vs. Ryukyu Golden Kings	Alvark Tokyo	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x716778…
09-23 05:40:05	Alvark Tokyo vs. Ryukyu Golden Kings	Alvark Tokyo	BUY	13	59¢	$8	0x1941eb…
09-22 18:55:40	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	No	SELL	141	2¢	$2	0x83cd1d…
09-22 18:36:48	Will FC Bayern München vs. Manchester City WFC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xac1db2…
09-22 18:10:15	Will FC Bayern München vs. Manchester City WFC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x40febc…
09-22 17:52:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 22?	Down	SELL	35	92¢	$32	0xbec002…
09-22 15:39:54	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 22?	Down	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x52126c…
09-22 15:32:25	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 22?	Down	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x92df81…
09-22 15:30:24	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 22?	Down	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0xa93fc5…
09-22 15:30:22	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 22?	Down	BUY	12	70¢	$8	0xf217bf…
09-22 14:42:58	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 22?	Up	SELL	50	36¢	$18	0x72ab31…
09-22 13:00:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x369467…
09-22 09:53:40	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 22?	Up	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x8a4458…
09-22 08:51:03	wti up or down on september 22 2026	Up	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xe75a92…
09-22 08:50:28	wti up or down on september 22 2026	Up	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x401628…
09-22 08:46:55	wti up or down on september 22 2026	Up	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xcf3229…
09-22 08:44:19	wti up or down on september 22 2026	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xf67abe…
09-22 08:39:49	wti up or down on september 22 2026	Down	SELL	16	38¢	$6	0x5cb5bb…
09-22 07:42:25	wti up or down on september 22 2026	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xfbcadc…
09-21 22:38:45	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	No	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x8622b6…
09-21 22:24:16	Will Bogota FC win on 2026-09-21?	Yes	SELL	12	76¢	$9	0xae23c6…
09-21 22:20:00	Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-09-21?	Yes	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x4eb295…
09-21 22:18:13	Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-09-21?	Yes	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xcac33e…
09-21 22:16:49	Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-09-21?	Yes	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x07ec10…
09-21 21:13:54	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	No	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xd5dd81…
09-21 21:01:54	Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-09-21?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x643de3…
09-21 21:00:52	Will Bogota FC win on 2026-09-21?	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xdbdbdf…
09-21 20:50:07	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	No	BUY	21	2¢	$0	0xd26354…
09-21 20:03:37	Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-09-21?	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0xfeb5a5…
09-21 16:42:45	Will ASC Oțelul Galați vs. FC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara end in a draw?	No	SELL	18	81¢	$15	0xf5341d…
09-21 16:28:26	Will ASC Oțelul Galați vs. FC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara end in a draw?	No	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0xbeff15…